It is difficult for corn prices to rise sharply in line with the policy-led spot prices.

Throughout the domestic corn market in recent years, the policy dominates the market price, and the domestic corn price fluctuates closely with the changes in the purchase price and purchase volume of the State Reserve.

Since the beginning of the State Reserve acquisition policy in 2008, the domestic corn market price has been strongly supported by the State Reserve policy, which makes the trend of northeast corn price strong, while the huge purchase volume of state reserve leads to the shortage of high-quality corn in Northeast China. Attracting corn from North China into the northeast market has led to a general rise in corn prices in the main producing areas of the north, and led to a strong trend of national corn prices.

The price of the State Reserve continues to rise.

From 2008 to 2014, the purchase price of corn from the State Reserve has been rising continuously, with an increase of 48%. The State Reserve continues to raise the purchase price, which not only provides a strong support to the corn market price, but also stimulates the domestic corn price to show a rising trend year after year.

In 2015, in order to control domestic corn production, reduce corn planting area, and narrow the corn price gap at home and abroad, the state lowered the purchase price to 1 yuan / jin, and the four northeastern provinces unified the purchase price in order to reduce the purchase volume of the state reserve. However, the market is more bearish in the future, the corn price has dropped seriously, and the purchase price of the state reserve is still higher than the mainstream price of the market, which still plays a role in supporting the market to a certain extent.

The purchase volume of the State Reserve supports the market price.

Since 2008, the policy of supporting the city by the state reserve has been implemented. As can be seen from the following figure, the strength of the state reserve to support the market from 2008 to 2012 is general, which has little impact on the market price, but since 2013, there is a large gap between the purchase volume of the state reserve and that of previous years. With the straight increase in the purchase volume of the state reserve, high-quality raw grain flows into the state reserve, and the market is in short supply, thus affecting the price of corn. The purchase volume of the State Reserve supports the domestic corn prices to remain high to a certain extent.

Market prices strengthen in a straight line

Under the influence of the purchase price and purchase volume of the State Reserve, the domestic corn price has skyrocketed from 1400 yuan / ton in 2008 to 2200-2400 yuan / ton in 2014. at the same time, due to the continuous flow of high-quality raw grain into the state reserve in the main producing areas of Northeast and North China, and the shortage of raw grain in the market, the purchase price of grain enterprises is generally higher than that of the state reserve. As can be seen from the following figure, stimulated by the purchase volume of corn purchased by the state reserve in 2014 / 2015. The price of corn in the market rose to a peak of 2500 yuan / ton.

As can be seen from the above three points, in recent years, the domestic corn market is dominated by the State Reserve acquisition policy, mainly due to the continuous improvement of the State Reserve purchase price and the continuous increase in purchase volume, which promotes the domestic corn price to show an upward trend.

Although the purchase price of the State Reserve was reduced to 1 yuan per jin in 2015, it was still higher than the mainstream price of the market. Since the acquisition of the State Reserve on November 1, the market price has continued to be dominated by the State Reserve policy under the stimulation of the Northeast State Reserve Policy. Favorable policies in the corn market are frequent, and corn processing enterprises have warmed up slightly. According to statistics, as of mid-November, the opening rate of the domestic corn starch industry is about 65.78%. A year-on-year increase of 0.56% The opening rate of the alcohol starch industry is about 64.54%, an increase of 0.12% over the same period last year. In the short term, the State Reserve policy continues to dominate the corn market price, but is the corn market still a policy market in the later period?

In the later stage, the policy turned to supply and demand to dominate the market.

From the perspective of historical experience, the state reserve collection and storage policy still plays an obvious supporting role in corn prices. with the full start of the state reserve acquisition, there is a wave of rise in corn market prices. However, from the perspective of storage capacity, after seven years of collection and storage, the national corn storage inventory is as high as 150 million tons. Although the state is actively preparing for the construction of new storage and continuous implementation of inter-provincial relocation, the overall storage capacity is still on the low side, so it is difficult to maintain a high amount of reserves. In terms of quality, the state has higher requirements for the quality of stored corn this year, and mildew is controlled within 2%.

The quality of corn affects the quantity that can be stored in the warehouse, but it can not be stored if the quality deviates. A large amount of raw grain that does not meet the standard will continue to be consumed by the market, which will depress the price of corn in the circulation market. At the same time, the situation of oversupply in the corn market can not be changed. Due to the increase in per unit yield and sown area in 2014, China's corn yield in 2014 is estimated to be 217 million tons. The large amount of corn still needs market consumption in the later stage, from this point of view, the domestic corn spot market is still in an adequate supply situation.

Although the demand in the downstream market of domestic corn processing enterprises and feed enterprises shows signs of picking up slightly, the total growth rate is small, and the growth rate of industrial demand and feed demand is only 2-3%. Overall, the problem of weak domestic corn downstream demand is difficult to solve in the short term. It is expected that in the short term, it is only supported by favorable weather factors, and the demand for corn raw grain in the late processing plant is still relatively low. From this point of view, the late corn market will be dominated by the policy market, and the spot price of corn will hardly have a big rise in previous years.