The market differentiation in the purchase of Xinmai is obvious in terms of quality and price.

At present, the harvest of new wheat in the main domestic producing areas is basically over. According to the agricultural situation dispatching of the Ministry of Agriculture, another bumper harvest of summer grain is expected this year, and the total output is expected to hit a new high. Because there is no shortage of grain in the market, and affected by the weather, the progress of the acquisition of new wheat in the main domestic producing areas is slow as a whole. Due to the uneven quality of wheat among regions, the price of new wheat and the intention of market purchase are obviously different.

The price of new wheat will still rise steadily and slightly.

The differentiation of wheat price and quality will be more obvious in the later stage.

Since the purchase of wheat in the main producing areas was launched at the end of May, the price of new wheat has moved closer from the previous low to the national lowest purchase price (1.18 yuan per 100 jin), and has been running relatively stably. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture in Henan and other six wheat pre-plan implementation areas, the average purchase price of wheat by state-owned grain enterprises rose from 117.7 yuan per 100 jin on June 10 to 118.35 yuan around June 20, while the purchase price of individual grain merchants rose from 112.72 yuan to 113.48 yuan. Compared with the same period last year, the purchase price of state-owned grain enterprises is 0.25% lower, and that of individual grain merchants is 1.38% lower. At the same time, the amount of wheat purchased by the whole society in the main producing areas is much lower than that in the same period last year. According to the statistics of the Henan Grain Bureau, as of June 25, the province had purchased a total of 5.4 million tons of wheat, a decrease of 4.83 million tons over the same period last year.

The grain supply is abundant, the quality of wheat has declined in some areas, and the buyers are cautious to enter the market.

The main reasons for the above-mentioned characteristics and trends in the new wheat market this year are as follows:

The main body of the market is cautious in purchasing. Since the beginning of this year, the overall operation of the wheat market is weak, and all kinds of subjects are not optimistic about the late market situation. At the initial stage of the listing of new wheat, the wait-and-see mood of the market was strong, and many market subjects delayed the acquisition of new wheat, resulting in a generally low price of new wheat. From the perspective of several types of main bodies involved in the acquisition, state-owned grain purchasing and marketing enterprises mainly purchase reserve grain by rotation and support the market, and the amount of self-trading is not large; there are abundant food sources in the market, flour processing enterprises buy rationally, do not increase prices, and do not charge high-priced grain; some private traders did not operate well last year, and limited by funds and venues, they no longer rashly hoarded grain.

The acquisition of supporting the market was not started in time. Since Xinmai was listed in mid-late May, Jiangsu Province took the lead in launching the market support purchase on May 26 because the average purchase price was lower than the market support price. Hubei, Anhui and Henan provinces launched the market support plan on May 27, May 28 and June 1, respectively. Shandong has been launched in Zaozhuang, Heze and Jining since June 17, with an increase of two cities over the previous year. According to the author's investigation and understanding, although the time of starting the pre-plan in each province is relatively early, the relevant departments have set more pre-conditions for the start-up of the market acquisition, the start-up procedures are quite strict, and the acquisition funds have not been put in place for a long time. As a result, the acquisition of market support in some areas has not really been carried out.

The quality of new wheat decreased in some areas. This year, some areas in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and southwestern Shandong experienced continuous rain in the middle and later stages of wheat growth, and diseases and insect pests such as wheat aphid, scab and powdery mildew occurred more seriously in some plots than in previous years. Strong convective gale and hail weather occurred in some areas in southern and central Henan on the evening of May 6, causing wheat lodging. In the above-mentioned affected areas, there are too many imperfect grains of wheat and the quality is declining, resulting in a low enthusiasm for market acquisition, which is basically stopped at present. The acquisition progress of high-quality regions is normal or faster than that of the same period last year. The purchase volume of the whole society in Henan Province decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly in the southern regions such as Nanyang and Zhumadian, and the price was on the low side, while the wheat quality in northern Henan was good and the acquisition progress was normal. The output of second-class wheat in Jining area of Shandong Province accounts for 70% of the total output this year, and the progress of acquisition is relatively fast. by June 19, the city has purchased a total of 178000 tons of new wheat, an increase of 38700 tons over the same period last year.

In the later stage, the market was basically stable, and the price differentiation of wheat with different quality was obvious.

Taking into account the fundamentals of domestic and global wheat supply and demand, wheat market regulation and control policies, and the domestic macroeconomic situation, it is expected that with the support of the market purchase, the price of new wheat will still rise steadily and slightly in the later stage, but the market will still operate weakly after the end of September, but the differentiation of high quality and high price and quality will be more obvious.

The fundamentals of domestic wheat supply and demand are loose. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the area of summer grain this year is expected to reach 415 million mu, an increase of more than 1 million mu compared with the same period last year, the per unit yield is expected to increase, and the total yield is expected to reach a new high. With the further increase of domestic wheat stocks, the market supply will be more abundant, and prices will not be supported by rising prices. At present, the national temporary storage wheat auction volume remains at a low level, and the transaction rate continues to decline. On June 17, the total volume was 1.1876 million tons, and the actual turnover was 33100 tons, with a transaction rate of only 2.78 percent. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 4.5087 million tons of temporary stored wheat have been sold at auctions, a decrease of 5.4521 million tons over the same period last year.

The demand for flour processing and feeding is low. The domestic economic growth is slowing, the market demand is sluggish, and the flour processing and feed industries are depressed. At present, some large and medium-sized flour enterprises are losing money in the protection market, while some small enterprises stop production or close down periodically, and the consumption of edible wheat is basically maintained at a normal weak level. However, due to the decline of wheat quality in some areas and the tight supply of high-quality wheat, the price trend of high-quality wheat will be stronger than that of ordinary wheat in the later stage. From the perspective of wheat feed demand, the domestic corn harvest in 2014, corn prices are low as a whole. Since the beginning of this year, the price difference between wheat and corn in the main producing areas is about 350 yuan per ton; recently, the price difference between new wheat and corn is also at 100,200 yuan, so there is no price advantage for wheat to replace corn as feed. The imperfect grains of wheat in some areas exceeded the standard this year, and some of them may flow into the feed market, but due to the weak operation of the corn market and the strong import momentum of substitutes such as barley and sorghum, 3.663 million tons of barley and 3.265 million tons of sorghum were imported from January to April, an increase of 1.5 times and 2.2 times respectively over the same period last year. Therefore, the amount of wheat feed is not enough to drive the market.

Global wheat production exceeds demand for the third year in a row. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported in June that global wheat production in 2015 is expected to be 723 million tons, down 0.8 per cent (6.1 million tons) from the record level in 2014, but still the second highest in history. Global wheat consumption is expected to be 716 million tons, an increase of 0.5 per cent (3.6 million tons) year on year. Production exceeds consumption by 7.2 million tons, global wheat production exceeds demand for three consecutive years, and stocks continue to increase, estimated to reach 201 million tons, which will reach a 13-year high, an increase of 1.4% (2.8 million tons) over the same period last year. Under the loose pattern of supply and demand, wheat prices in the international market are easy to fall and difficult to rise in the second half of the year. Judging from the price difference at home and abroad, the price of hard red winter wheat in the United States after tax on shore in mid-June is 0.59 yuan lower than that in the domestic high-quality wheat marketing area. Although the linkage of domestic and foreign wheat markets is not strong, under the situation of huge domestic and foreign price differences and tight supply of domestic high-quality wheat, China's wheat imports may increase in the second half of the year, further increasing the pressure of domestic supply.

Henan: the price of buying "good wheat" in the leading market goes up.

Just after the summer harvest, Henan Province, which accounts for one of the top 1/4 wheat producers in the country, has once again had a bumper harvest. According to the forecasts of relevant departments, this year, Henan's 81.385 million mu of wheat is expected to have an average yield of more than 800jin per mu, with a total output of about 66 billion jin. Based on the perennial commodity rate of about 70%, the province's wheat commodity volume this year is about 47 billion jin.

Wheat is of good quality and high price in most areas.

This year, Henan Province continues to implement the purchase plan to support the market, and the purchase price of wheat to support the market is the same as that of last year. Taking the third-class wheat produced in 2015 as the standard, the lowest purchase price of white wheat, red wheat and mixed wheat is 1.18 yuan per jin. Since June 1, Henan has successively launched the acquisition of Xiaomituo City from south to north.

On June 17, trucks selling wheat stood in a long line for inspection at the branch depot in Kushuo County, directly under China Grain Storage Anyang. "our warehouse began to harvest new wheat on June 12 and can harvest more than 700 tons a day. The quality of wheat in Huaxian County is better this year. First-class wheat accounts for more than 90%, second-class wheat accounts for less than 10%, and there is almost no third-class wheat. " Niu Fulin, deputy director of the Daokou branch warehouse in Huaxian County, said that the grain depot strictly implements the wheat purchase policy, with first-class wheat at 1.22 yuan per jin.

In Huaxian County, northern Henan, due to the implementation of the construction of high-standard grain fields, the continuous improvement of farmland infrastructure, the improvement of the level of mechanized operation, the follow-up of scientific and technological services, and a bumper wheat harvest. In the just-harvested land of Hou Shanpo in Zhangzhuang Village, Baidaokou Town, Huaxian County, Hou Shanpo said: "this year's wheat yield is good, hitting more than 1100 jin per mu." Now wheat has just come on the market, and although the price is about 1.22 yuan per jin, it is still on the low side compared with the same period last year, and recently it is busy with farm work, and so on. "

At a grain processing enterprise in Zhouying Township, Shenqiu County, Wang Ke, a farmer who is selling wheat, is happy to produce 7500 kilograms of his 12 mu land from ear to ear. After instrument testing, his family's wheat belongs to the third-class mixed wheat, and the market purchase price is 1.18 yuan / jin. "compared with the past, the purchase process of grain purchase sites this year is much more standardized. It all depends on the equipment, and there is nothing to say about how much it should be given. The quality, grade and jin are all fair." Wang Ke, who received more than 10,000 yuan of grain, said excitedly.

According to the person in charge of the Henan Grain Bureau, the wheat quality in most areas of Henan Province this year is the best in recent years, with high bulk density, low imperfect grains, and generally good wheat quality. From the point of view of the grain quality purchased, most of the wheat quality grades in northern and eastern Henan are above the second class, and a considerable part of them have reached the first-class quality.

The market is dominated by acquisitions, and the market is beginning to "grab the wheat".

According to normal annual estimates, the purchase volume of wheat Mai Tuo City in Henan Province this year is about 10 million tons. "together with the Provincial Grain Bureau and the Henan Branch of the Agricultural Development Bank, we have jointly approved two batches of 1272 storage sites for supporting cities, preparing an empty warehouse capacity of 12 million tons and achieving 'warehouses and other grain'." Introduced by the person in charge of the comprehensive department of China Grain Storage Henan Branch.

Next to the gate of the Central Plains National Grain Reserve Depot in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, a poster announced policy information on grain varieties, purchase prices, quality standards, water impurity deductions, settlement methods, and implementation time, and so on, which were carefully read by farmers who came to sell grain from time to time.

"A few days ago, we began to buy a large number of municipal grain reserves and rotate provincial grain reserves, and now the price still follows the market price." Li Baomin, deputy director of the Central Plains State Grain Reserve in Zhengzhou, said: "this year, the state subsidized grain reserves a little later. So far, we have only acquired 30,000 tons." As long as no one raises the price, we expect to buy another 10,000 tons according to the state's lowest purchase price. "

In Xinzheng City, a grain broker surnamed Li, who buys wheat for enterprises, said that some of the more than ten tons of wheat purchased from farmers every day are collected and bagged directly for farmers. The price is about 1.1 yuan per jin, and farmers are more satisfied with the price after saving trouble.

Tangyin in Anyang City is not only a grain production agglomeration area, but also a noodle processing agglomeration area. Xiong Guangfa, general manager of today's Mailang flour (Anyang) Co., Ltd., said that there has been a scramble to buy wheat. "the quality of wheat in Anyang is generally better this year, and now the average price has been 1.22 yuan / jin. Most of the wheat exceeds the national minimum purchase price, and if the bulk density of wheat exceeds the standard, the price we offer will be even higher."

According to statistics from the Henan Grain Bureau, as of June 20, the province had purchased a total of 3.76 billion kilograms of wheat, but due to the low temperature since May, this year's wheat harvest was one week later than in previous years, and the purchase volume was 3.85 billion kilograms less than the same period last year.

Experts from the China Grain Network Yida Research Institute believe that at present, most wheat processing enterprises in Henan Province are in a state of small profit or loss, and because of cost control considerations, the enthusiasm for acquisition is not high, while other trading bodies are not optimistic about the future rise in wheat prices. the enthusiasm for acquisition has also been reduced, and the acquisition of supporting the market this year will still occupy a dominant position.

The acquisition situation of low-quality wheat is not optimistic. "worried to death, because the quality does not meet the national reserve grain purchase standard, it can only be sold at 1.05-1.1 yuan per jin." Liu Xueyou, a big grain grower in Xixian County, said that the more than 10,000 mu of wheat he planted did not sell much. In Liu Xueyou's grain storage yard, the reporter saw a large area of wheat stacked in bags. "this is just part of it, and sell it together when the price is high." Liu Xueyou feels that the price of wheat this year is not reasonable. "the overall price of wheat in Xixian County is not as good as that of last year. Excluding wheat quality, it should reach 1.2 yuan / jin anyway."

Coupled with the continuous rain during the wheat harvest, Liu Xueyou had to use his own dryer. "drying alone costs me six cents more per jin." Liu Xueyou complained that this year was supposed to be a bumper crop, but at the current price, the income cannot be increased.

Yang Haibin, a grain broker in Neixiang County, Nanyang, told reporters that this year's grain broker is also the worst year in terms of efficiency, and the quality of the wheat purchased is not good, and the imperfect grains are too high. "now many brokers have lost money because of the unqualified wheat they have received, and now I still have more than 200 tons of wheat in my hands."

Affected by the summer harvest weather, some farmers in Nanyang City mixed the wheat together during wheat harvest, resulting in a decline in the overall quality. According to Ma Bing, head of the Guangwu branch of China Grain Storage Nanyang to the east, the germination rate of a large part of wheat exceeds the standard, and if it exceeds 10%, it does not meet the criteria for the purchase of grain in the market.

The reporter learned that the unfavorable weather during the wheat harvest season in Xinyang, Nanyang and other places this year has led to a higher proportion of imperfect grains of wheat as a whole, and the quality has been generally affected, but the bulk density of wheat is better. At present, the relevant local departments have begun to take measures to solve the problem, and coordinate and organize some flour mills, feed factories and other grain production and processing enterprises to carry out acquisitions.

Anhui: the quality of Xinmai declines and the progress of acquisition slows down

The purchase of wheat support market in Anhui Province has been under way for some time, but this year's wheat sales have encountered an unprecedented "cold". What is the reason for this?

In early June, the reporter interviewed in the rural areas of Hanqiao District, Suzhou City, and found that local state-owned grain stations were rarely open, private grain stations seldom collected grain, and most of the farmers' grain was stored at home and could not be sold. On June 11, the wheat harvest in Suzhou was coming to an end. At this time of previous years, both market-supporting acquisitions and private acquisitions have been launched on a large scale. However, about 20% of wheat with imperfect grains accounts for 10% or 20%, and about 40% of wheat with imperfect grains more than 20%.

According to the state purchase policy of supporting the market, wheat with imperfect grain proportion greater than or equal to 10% shall not be purchased. "for so many years, there are very few wheat with imperfect grains more than 10% in the region, and there are almost no wheat with imperfect grains higher than 20%. This phenomenon is rare this year." The person in charge of the Grain Bureau of Hanqiao District said that they adopted the way of entering the village to enter the household to conduct a quality survey of wheat in the whole region and found that the proportion of imperfect grains was on the high side.

In the Nanqiu National Grain Depot, which is located in Danzi Community, Yaopu Town, Nanqiu District, Chuzhou City, many trucks loaded with wheat are parked at the grain depot, but they are unable to weigh themselves. Grain depot staff said that due to the large number of Rain Water in the later period of this year, the wheat harvest was delayed, resulting in a decline in quality, especially in some imperfect wheat grains that seriously exceeded the standard. It is understood that more than half of the wheat in Chuzhou has imperfect grains, and more than 10% of the imperfect grains.

On June 19, the reporter came to visit the Feixi branch of the mechanized grain depot in Anhui Province, a designated enterprise acquired by the city. There is no lively queue for grain sales as the reporter imagined. Only a few workers were busy drying grain in the drying field, and it took a long time to wait for a van of a grain seller.

Wang Dagui, a grain broker in Yandian Township, told reporters that several thousand jin of grain will be delivered this year, and three to four cars will be delivered a day. However, the quality of wheat harvested this year is obviously lower than that of previous years, with more third-class wheat and little second-class wheat. Except for the poor quality, the price can't sell. Everything else is all right, send food at any time, check the quality and pay money at any time.

Yu Shanzeng, head of the grain depot, said that the quality of wheat sold this year has indeed dropped a lot, mainly due to imperfect grain height, so a cleaning machine has been used in the grain depot to clean up the wheat that enters the warehouse every day. Some nearby grain stations have temporarily suspended grain collection due to the lack of cleaning machines.

What about the market-oriented acquisition? The reporter then came to Feixi County Yadian Township Grain and Oil Co., Ltd., which is a private grain enterprise. "We have been making normal acquisitions, but the purchase price has not come up." Ma Jiahong, the boss, said that in the acquisition, they also found that the wheat quality was low this year. If the quality of wheat is poor, the price will naturally fall. Compared with previous years, the progress of wheat storage this year is much slower.

Although the state announced the market-supporting acquisition policy in late May, until June 10, only four market-supporting purchase sites were launched in four townships with relatively good grain quality. We should not only make every effort to purchase farmers' grain to avoid difficulties in selling grain, but also resolutely ensure the quality of the state's grain depots. " The person in charge of the Grain Bureau of Hanqiao District directly stated the "dilemma" faced by the state-owned grain purchasing enterprises.

The reporter saw that due to the increase in the number of imperfect grains than in previous years, the difficulty of inspection has been increased, the time for selling grain has been greatly extended, and there has been a long queue in front of the purchase points in support of the market. At the gates of other major state-owned grain stations, many farmers come to inquire about the opening time every day. Some private grain stations that used to compete with state-owned grain stations have been reluctant to collect grain this year because they are worried that there will be no market for substandard grain.

It is reported that the relevant departments of Anhui Province have taken note of this trend. The relevant departments have decided to increase grain finishing equipment such as large vibrating screens and fans as well as corresponding manpower to help farmers sort out unqualified grain into qualified grain as far as possible. For grain that is still not up to the purchasing standard through repeated arrangement, state-owned grain purchasing enterprises will play the role of the main channel to help farmers contact feed factories and other sales channels to find a way out for grain.