Soybean target price preliminary test sound needs to be improved

Soybean is closely related to people's life, and has considerable economic benefits. Since China's accession to the WTO, China, which used to be the main producing area of soybeans, has become a "fertile market" for soybeans abroad, especially in the United States, and some foreign enterprises have also obtained the de facto right to price soybeans. Moreover, in the face of GM soybeans, domestic growers sometimes "have to use".

When the industrial chain is dominated by imported soybeans, on the one hand, some foreign enterprises depress the purchase price, on the other hand, they "sharply raise" the price of soybean oil, which eventually leads to the shrinking of the planting area of China's main soybean producing areas year after year, and the space for importing soybeans appears to be more open.

In the face of pressure and challenges, China has carried out pilot reforms in the target prices of agricultural products such as soybeans. Now that the reform has entered its second year, what improvements have been made to the situation of the main soybean producing areas? How will the target price play a further role?

The amount of price hanging upside down is increased.

Recently, the futures market soybean oil shock, and soybean meal is still weak, "oil strong meal weak" is an important feature of the current market. Judging from the slightly longer market cycle, the price of oil meal shows a downward trend. According to relevant market data, the soybean oil index fell about 43 per cent from 10, 000 in September 2012 to 5700 recently, while the soybean meal index fell about 40 per cent from 4200 in September 2012 to 2500 recently.

Wang Xiaoyu, deputy secretary general of Heilongjiang Soybean Association, told reporters that the main reason for the above situation is that supply exceeds demand and prices in the international market are weak. At present, there are three main reasons why supply exceeds demand:

One is excessive import. Excessive imports are not due to consumer demand. Large international trade processing enterprises have not only made money by meeting consumer demand, but also made profits through financial derivatives, international trade spreads and futures market hedging. Soybeans and related commodities have already become financial targets. For example, if a company buys a shipment of soybeans in the United States, it can sell soybean oil and soybean meal products in the futures market at the same time according to the principle of cost plus profit, and the spot market becomes a supplementary channel for profits. In recent years, there is an obvious problem of excessive import in China: in 2014, China produced 12 million tons of soybeans, imported 71.4 million tons of genetically modified soybeans, and used 83.4 million tons, accounting for 30.89% of the global consumption of 270 million tons, while China's population accounted for only 19.1% of the world's total population in the same period. According to this calculation, China should consume 51.57 million tons of soybeans and import 31.83 million tons more. Even if the consumption of soy food is excluded from 6 million tons according to the characteristics of the public diet in our country, the import volume is still 25.83 million tons more.

Second, overcapacity. Overcapacity leads to excessive processing demand. Before 1996, China's soybean processing capacity was about 10 million tons, and by the end of 2014 it had exceeded 140 million tons. Soybean market has a high degree of internationalization, "skyrocketing and plummeting" can quickly bring profits. As long as they see a profit, the new capacity will be imported and started production, and the oil meal products will be sold to speculators through the futures market to make a profit.

Third, commercial inventory. Attention should be paid to the new commercial transit inventory. Since Wal-Mart, Carrefour and other large international chain supermarkets entered China in the 1990s, China's large wholesale markets, chain supermarkets, convenience stores and warehouse purchases have developed rapidly. These new markets should have not only shelves but also transit inventory. Consumer demand is stable, but each new supermarket or store will generate corresponding inventory. According to relevant statistical practices, these inventories will be classified as consumer demand during periods of rapid economic development, but will "become" supply pressure when market growth stabilizes or slows down. If the warehouse and shelves can't fit, they will go to the supermarket to promote sales at a low price.

As for the weakening of prices in the international market, the main reason is the increase in the supply of soybeans in the Americas. At the same time, domestic consumer demand stability, processing overcapacity and demand saturation and other factors also have a negative effect on the international market. In addition, there is also the impact of consumer concerns about the safety of genetically modified foods.

However, does weaker prices really mean that the downstream soybean industry is also weakening? What is the impact of weaker prices on current soybean prices? In this regard, Wang Xiaoyu frankly said that whether the soybean downstream industry is weakening along with it, Heilongjiang Soybean Association is also analyzing.

In the domestic market, the price of soybeans is still "upside down"-the port distribution price of imported soybeans is currently 3000 yuan / ton, while the price of domestic soybeans is currently 4000 yuan / ton in Heilongjiang. It should be noted that the demand for domestic soybeans has begun to improve. "the amount of soybeans produced in Heilongjiang is indeed increasing." Wang Xiaoyu said that in 2015, consumption in the main producing areas of Heilongjiang was better than in the past few years.

Domestic soybeans are beginning to show signs of improvement, which is closely related to the target price reform.

In the face of the recent weakness in soybean prices, Wang Xiaoyu said it may not be a bad thing. "from the perspective of the development of the soybean industry, our association advocates the same price competition between domestic beans and imported beans. In this way, the production cost of processing enterprises is low, and the operating cost of traders is also low, which is conducive to soybean 'coming out' of Heilongjiang. On the other hand, farmers do not lose money even if they sell beans at a low price-because the target price subsidy has made up the price difference to farmers. "

With regard to the current soybean prices in the producing areas, Wang Xiaoyu believes that some "cannot be too high, but not too low." after the reform of the target price of soybeans, the soybean prices in the producing areas are neither "high" enough to meet the income expectations of soybean farmers, nor do they exceed the target price promulgated by the state. what's more, it is not "low" to the same price level as imported GM soybeans. When the collection price ended at the end of March this year, the price of beans in the producing areas quickly dropped to 3800 yuan per ton. It even reappears that the subsidies are not enough and the enterprises do not start work. " At present, there is no final conclusion on why such a situation occurred, and all parties are still actively studying it.