Agricultural futures are difficult to stay in good times, most of them have a limited rebound.

Affected by the inventory and acreage report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), futures of agricultural products such as soybeans, wheat and corn soared in the Chicago market. China's commodity market also changed its declining trend and most varieties were rewarded. Yesterday, the Chinese futures market agricultural products sector performance was particularly strong, soybean meal and rapeseed meal led the rise in commodities, both to close by the limit, while the oil sector led the gains. Some analysts pointed out that with the arrival of the peak season in August, higher international oil prices and the end of the strength of the US dollar, agricultural products may have an overall rebound, but it is unlikely to start a large-scale bull market, and the extent of the rebound may be limited.

USDA report detonates agricultural products

As of June 1, domestic corn stocks stood at 4.447 billion bushels, the highest level since 1988 and the fifth highest on record, the USDA said. Soyabeans stood at 625 million bushels and wheat stocks rose to 753 million bushels. In the same period last year, U.S. stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat were 3.852 billion bushels, 405 million bushels and 590 million bushels respectively.

Obviously, the current stocks of soybeans, wheat and corn in the United States are all higher than those in the same period last year. But according to previous market expectations, corn stocks were 4.555 billion bushels, soybeans 670 million bushels and wheat 718 million bushels. Obviously, the inventory level of corn and soybeans is lower than expected. Analysts believe that there is likely to be strong demand consumption behind this.

The data also showed that corn use in the March-May period totaled 3.303 billion bushels, the second highest on record for the same period, while quarterly soybean use was 701 million bushels, the fourth highest on record for the same period.

Affected by this report, overnight outer dish agricultural products rose sharply. American beans jumped 5.84 per cent, the biggest one-day rise since 2010, corn futures jumped 7.27 per cent on Tuesday, the biggest one-day gain in five years, and wheat futures jumped 5.53 per cent on Tuesday to a six-month high.

Domestic agricultural futures also soared collectively. As of yesterday's close, both rapeseed, soybean oil and palm oil rose more than 2%, while Zhengyou and corn also rose 1.41% and 1.25% respectively. Zheng Mian's main 1509 contract rose 0.86% to 12850 yuan / ton, Zheng Mai's 1601 contract rose 0.83% to 2784 yuan / ton, and white sugar 1601 rose 0.67% to 5693 yuan / ton. In addition, Douyi, rubber, eggs and starch were also quoted on the red plate.

Most of the rebounds are limited.

It can not be ignored that behind yesterday's unexpected red, most agricultural products in the domestic futures market have been in a weak decline channel for a long time. According to the observation of the continuous trend in recent days, except for the strong trend of white sugar and soybean meal, the other varieties are the weak varieties of weekly harvest green, and the varieties such as soybean, Zhengmai and rapeseed are continuous daily overcast. Industry insiders believe that the rise in agricultural products in the domestic futures market on Wednesday has something to do with the USDA report.

According to the statistics of the China Securities News, Zheng Mai's current round of decline fell by 2% from June 9 to June 30, while Zheng Mian fell by about 6% from May 5 to June 30. Rapeseed futures fell from May 7 to June 30, down 25.7%; the price of beans fell 6.3% from May 25 to June 30; and corn futures fell 8.4% from May 15 to June 30. Rubber futures fell 13.2% for the whole of June.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national wholesale price index of agricultural products was 201.69 on June 29, down 1.40 points from last Friday. Among them, the wholesale price index of "vegetable basket" products was 202.81, down 1.45 points from last Friday. The average price of 28 kinds of vegetables under key monitoring was 3.40 yuan / kg, down 1.2% from last Friday.

In the past two weeks, with CBOT soybeans out of a rapid rebound (up nearly 20 per cent from June 16 to June 30), domestic soybean meal spot prices have rebounded from a phased bottom of Rmb100,200 / tonne.

It is worth noting that the recent speculation of El Ni ñ o has made funds look forward to the possible long market of agricultural products. In early June, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that in response to the growing El Ni ñ o, crops waiting for a bumper harvest should be closely monitored in the second half of this year. "yields in many areas will be affected." During El Ni ñ o in 1997, a large number of crops withered because of drought.

According to Rida Futures, the rebound in US beans has boosted the domestic meal market, but the listing of rapeseed meal in the new season has increased supply pressure and is expected to have limited room for rebound; the absence of rapeseed oil from the state reserve will increase short-term supply pressure on rapeseed oil, which is expected to limit the room for rapeseed oil to rebound. In addition, although Zheng Mian rebounded due to the positive boost of the USDA report, short-term cotton prices are still suppressed by the introduction of cotton reserve policy, pressure on cotton enterprises to repay loans, and weak downstream demand, which will continue under the situation of increased market supply and weak downstream.