Reinvigorate the oil market with positive response

This year, the national rapeseed temporary storage policy was cancelled, the lack of government support, processing enterprises and growers are at a loss, the new rapeseed acquisition market is light. In addition, according to the forecast of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, China's soybean planting area in 2015 was 6.1 million hectares, a decrease of 700000 hectares, or 10.3 percent, compared with last year. Rapeseed and soybean are the main oil crops in China, and the market fluctuates greatly after the adjustment of collection and storage policy.

Following the pilot implementation of soybean target price subsidy policy in three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia and other major soybean producing areas last year, major adjustments have been made to the temporary collection and storage policy of rapeseed this year. Starting from this year, the main body of rapeseed acquisition has been transferred from the central government to the local government, which is responsible for organizing all kinds of enterprises to purchase rapeseed. Can this adjustment reverse the predicament of the domestic oil market?

Acquisition liberalization

The market has entered a "labor pains period".

The cancellation of the temporary reserve policy will help to straighten out the price formation mechanism in the long run, but in the short term, it may affect farmers' enthusiasm for planting.

On a hot summer day, Wang Jinsong, chairman of Tianzihe Agricultural Professional Cooperative in Dali Village, Yangdian Township, Feidong County, Anhui Province, is worried about the newly harvested rapeseed sales. In previous years, the price of local rapeseed is about 2.6 yuan per jin, which is usually sold out by this time. After the introduction of the new rapeseed purchase policy this year, the local rapeseed purchase price has dropped to about 1.8 yuan per catty, even if the price is so low, there is still no door-to-door purchase. Feidong County is an important main producing area of rapeseed. In 2008, the planting area of rapeseed reached 800000 mu. In recent years, due to the low planting efficiency, rising production costs and other factors, it has dropped to about 500000 mu.

Hubei Province is an important main producing area of rapeseed in China. The sharp drop in the price of rapeseed leads to the serious psychology of farmers to cherish the sale. Liang Hongxing, chairman of Hubei Aoxing Grain and Oil Industry Co., Ltd., told reporters that they process more than 600 tons of rapeseed a day, but they have not yet entered the market to buy rapeseed. The storage time of rapeseed is short. It is estimated that farmers will sell rapeseed on a large scale in July. Only then will they start buying.

In Heilongjiang, which implements the soybean target price subsidy policy, soybean trading is currently in the doldrums. According to the statistics of Heilongjiang Soybean Industry Association, from the listing of new beans in October 2014 to April 10 this year, Heilongjiang grain enterprises purchased 2.16 million tons of new soybeans, a decrease of 2.45 million tons or 53.15% over the same period last year.

Chen Yanjun, a senior analyst at Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market, believes that rapeseed and soybeans are the two major oil crops in China, and the current stalemate is an inevitable phenomenon after the policy adjustment. The cancellation of the temporary storage policy will help to straighten out the price formation mechanism in the long run, but in the short term, it may affect the planting enthusiasm of farmers and lead to the decline of planting area.

Chen Yanjun said that the subsidy for growing soybeans in Northeast China is basically about 500 yuan per ton. in the past, the temporary storage price was 4800 yuan per tonne. Farmers can only get the same income as in previous years if they sell soybeans at a price of no less than 4300 yuan per ton. From the concentrated listing of soybeans in November last year to the present, the purchase prices of edible soybeans in Northeast China are between 4000 yuan and 4100 yuan per ton, and the purchase prices of oil soybeans are between 3200 and 3400 yuan per ton. The income of farmers growing soybeans has dropped sharply.

The situation of rapeseed acquisition this year is similar to that of soybeans. In Hubei and Anhui, the subsidy for planting rapeseed is 46 yuan to 48 yuan per mu, and the subsidy level for rapeseed is about 320 yuan per ton based on the yield of 300 jin per mu. At present, the purchase price of rapeseed by oil factories is about 3400 yuan per ton, plus subsidies, compared with the temporary storage purchase price of 5100 yuan per ton last year, farmers' income from planting rapeseed has dropped sharply this year.

Low planting income is the fundamental reason for the decrease of planting area of domestic soybean and rapeseed. It is understood that the implementation of the soybean target price subsidy policy has not stopped the downward trend of soybean acreage in Heilongjiang, which has dropped by about 20% this year. It is expected that the planting area of rapeseed may also decline next year. He Yongdong, head of the Modern Agricultural Machinery Cooperative in Changsheng Township, Kedong County, Heilongjiang Province, said that his cooperative planted more than 20, 000 mu of soybeans last year and only 8000 mu this year. Wang Jinsong said that his cooperative has improved the level of rapeseed mechanization by promoting the "one rice, one oil" planting model, but if there is no strong subsidy policy, they will also reduce rapeseed planting next year.

Rapeseed is the first domestic oil in China, the supply gap caused by the decline of planting area and yield will be made up by imported rape, and the self-sufficiency rate will decrease accordingly. The head of an oil processing enterprise in Jianli County, Hubei Province, said that she is now very worried that if the planting area and output of rapeseed continue to decline next year, it will have a very negative impact on oil processing enterprises.