Why is the fishmeal market sluggish again in peak season?

Now it has entered the beginning of July, and the fishmeal market will also enter the annual consumption season. However, judging from the current situation of fishmeal supply and demand, this year's fishmeal market may continue to deduce the spell of low peak season.

In 2013 and 2014, during the aquaculture peak season from July to September, fishmeal prices declined weakly, showing a weak peak season, but at the beginning and end of the year, they went out of the rising market.

At the end of June 2013 and 2014, the price of super fishmeal was about 12500 yuan per ton, while by the end of September, it was 10500 yuan per ton and 11900 yuan per ton respectively, down 2000 yuan and 600 yuan.

And this year, will enter this gold three months again, but at the end of June Peru super new goods quoted at 13500 yuan per ton, fishmeal market performance will be how?

Peruvian fish meal market sales pressure is greater

According to the author's understanding, as of the end of June, Peru has pre-sold about 230,000 tons of fishmeal, leaving about 400,000 tons of fishmeal for sale, and the sales pressure is relatively high. From the declining outer disk, we can also see that Peruvian fishmeal manufacturers are looking forward to the arrival of Chinese buyers. As of now, Peruvian Super Steam Fishmeal CNF is $1650 per ton, down $750 from last year's high of $2400 per ton. However, from the effect point of view, fishmeal buyers generally responded, although China, Japan, Chile and other buyers have entered the market, but Peru can sell large stocks of the situation is still dominant. Therefore, for the future, most fishmeal people think that the outer disk is lowered to 1600 US dollars.

Domestic aquaculture situation is unclear

As early as before, when we watched El Nino, many institutions and experts said that the El Nino weather facing China this year will reduce typhoon weather. However, China's first typhoon this year is earlier than in previous years. On June 22, it landed six times from Wanning, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan and other areas were hit by heavy rain, and gradually ended on June 25. However, according to the current situation, there is no specific data on the impact on aquaculture, but overall the impact is expected to be small.

In May this year, there were many torrential rains in Guangdong, and the success rate of prawn breeding was relatively low, with no more than 30% in most areas, which seriously affected the demand for fishmeal in Guangdong. After entering June, the weather tends to stabilize. From the middle and late June, most aquatic feed sales have improved, and fishmeal inquiries and purchases have been active.

But weather plays a crucial role in the upcoming aquaculture season, and the situation remains unclear.

Feed enterprise strain capacity enhanced

After the emergence of feed companies sweeping port stocks in May 2012, feed companies rarely seem to fight unprepared battles. Especially after zero quota last year, most feed enterprises have adopted the procurement strategy of combining external disk, spot, domestic and substitute. Especially at present, relative to the spot, the external disk cost performance is extremely prominent, many feed enterprises are waiting for the right opportunity to enter.

According to the author's understanding, 2000 US dollars, 1800 US dollars, 1700 US dollars these nodes have some feed procurement, and, compared with traders, feed enterprises account for a large proportion.

The recent decline in the price of some high-grade aquatic products is affected by the decline in fish meal prices. Due to the decrease of raw material price, raw fish feed decreased by 200 yuan ~300 yuan per ton, California bass feed decreased by 300 yuan ~600 yuan per ton, and opening feed decreased by 600 yuan per ton. The decrease range of each large enterprise was roughly the same. For this price drop, the personage inside course of study expresses on the one hand is due to fishmeal price expectation bearish, on the other hand is raw fish market downturn, cut price to reduce the pressure of farmers.

The original market is still entangled, cheaper external disk to Hong Kong time is already the end of August, in July, August aquaculture peak season feed factory fish meal is enough? Now has entered July, feed factory procurement enthusiasm has increased, but there has not been a large number of procurement peak. In this race against time, it is clear that feed mills are relatively well-equipped.

Central and northern Peru, next season's hunt will be the final one.

Similarly, Peruvian fishmeal factories are anxiously waiting for buyers from our country to enter the market. In the past aquaculture season, a large number of Peruvian fishmeal will also be "useless". That is, of course, assuming there are no extreme quotas. Therefore, the Peruvian fishmeal market has also been focusing on the consumption of feed mills in our country during the peak season of domestic aquaculture and the purchase of buyers in our country.

It is understood that some large feed enterprises currently need to prepare for September demand. Although most of the factors on both sides of supply and demand are pointing to negative, if there is news of micro-quota in the next fishing season in central and northern Peru, or if the sales mentality of Peruvian fishmeal factories changes, then the market may turn around. And these, still need time to verify.

All in all, from July to September this year, the aquaculture season, fishmeal market or peak season again difficult to flourish.