Review and Prospect of domestic Rice Market in June

Since June, the overall domestic rice market has been relatively stable, with slight fluctuations in some parts. At the same time, japonica rice auction continues to have a low turnover rate. On the other hand, the domestic rice market demand has entered the off-season. In addition, the amount of imported rice has risen sharply. The specific analysis is as follows:

I. A brief review of the market situation

In June, the domestic japonica rice market continued to run flat. Due to the shift of attention of grain stockholders, the supply of southern japonica rice market decreased and the price of japonica rice increased.

In terms of price, the purchase and sale of japonica rice showed a trend of "strong in the south and weak in the north" in June. Under the influence of wheat entering the harvest period, the main body of grain storage shifted attention, the market supply of japonica rice in the south decreased, and the market price was relatively strong. On the other hand, the overall performance of the northeast japonica rice market is relatively weak, and the overall market sales in the sales area is worse than that in the south.

In June, the indica rice market showed a pattern of "new hot and old cold". On the one hand, due to the imminent listing of early indica rice in the new season, the pressure of high inventory in the indica rice market became stronger, the main bodies' desire for shipment became stronger, the supply of old rice market was sufficient, and the demand was weak. On the other hand, the quantity of new rice in the market was relatively small, and the demand was strong, and the transaction was good after the mid-late indica rice was put on the market in 2014.

In June, the price difference of japonica and indica rice increased compared with the previous month, and maintained a high level until the end of June, showing a pattern of "japonica strong and indica weak".

Monitoring data show that at the beginning of June, the purchase price of japonica rice in Hulin, Heilongjiang was 3120 yuan / ton, and that of late indica rice in Changsha, Hunan was 2800 yuan / ton. at the end of June, the purchase price of japonica rice in Hulin, Heilongjiang was 3100 yuan / ton. the purchase price of late indica rice in Changsha, Hunan is 2800 yuan / ton.

In June, due to the heavy rainfall in the south and the gradual rise in temperature, the cost of rice storage and processing has increased, and the sales of rice in the sales area have obviously weakened, while the price of rice in the sales area basically remained stable in June, with no obvious rise or fall.

Monitoring shows that at the end of June, the wholesale price of round-grain rice in the northeast of the Beijing market was 4460,4640 yuan / ton, and the wholesale price of long-grain rice was about 5000 yuan / ton; the wholesale price of high-quality Jiangsu japonica rice in the Shanghai market was 4500,4520 yuan / ton, and the wholesale price of northeast rice was 4840,5000 yuan / ton, basically the same as last month.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

1. The auction of rice in Tuoshi: doubling the auction subsidy in Heilongjiang is not effective, and the auction of medium indica rice is the brightest.

In June, with the advent of primary and secondary school holidays, rising summer temperatures and heavy rainfall in the south, domestic rice consumption further entered the off-season, and the operating rate of rice mills continued to decline in some parts, of which more than 90% of Jilin rice processing enterprises have stopped work. Although the subsidy for large-scale rice processing enterprises in Heilongjiang Province with an annual processing capacity of more than 100000 tons has been increased from 100 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton, however, it is still a drop in the bucket for the temporary storage auction market (prior to this, the Heilongjiang Grain Bureau gave a subsidy of 100 yuan / ton to local-scale grain processing enterprises on April 27th).

Judging from the transaction situation, the early indica rice in June has been auctioned continuously since the transaction of 535 tons on June 2, with a total turnover of 708000 tons since last autumn. The transaction of medium indica rice is the best, and the grain source year transition from 2013 to 2014, the latter is more favored, with a total turnover of 416000 tons in June (only 21000 tons sold in 2013 last month), and the average transaction price reached more than 2800 yuan / ton. it is 100 yuan / ton higher than that in 2013, and the total turnover so far this year is 1.22 million tons. The turnover rate of japonica rice at auction has always been maintained at about 5 per cent, with an average transaction price of 3160-3180 yuan per ton. Grain sources are more popular in 2013 and 2014, with a total turnover of 296000 tons within the month, down from 310000 tons last month, and 1.29 million tons so far this year.

2. Imports: China's rice imports continue to climb, and rice prices in Southeast Asia are weak.

According to customs statistics, China's rice imports continued to rise sharply in May, but the price difference between Guangdong early indica rice and imported Vietnamese rice remained at about 1100 yuan / ton.

At the same time, as Southeast Asian countries enter the rice sowing season, especially when El Nino weather may lead to drought in Southeast Asia this year, it is of particular concern:

The Thai government has advised farmers in the central region to further postpone rice sowing from July to August, as 22 of the 76 provinces are still in drought, while the Thai Agricultural Economic Office said, domestic rice prices are expected to rise 10% to 8500 baht per ton, or about $253 a ton, as El Ni ñ o may lead to a decline in rice supply in the main season.

India: a decrease in mid-season wind and rain is not expected in June, but entering a critical period of rice growth in July, meteorologists say weak monsoon rains may seriously affect rice yield potential, especially in central, northwest and southern India.

Of course, for China, the rice trade with Southeast Asia has not stopped. Among them, according to the memorandum of understanding signed by China and Thailand in April 2014, the Thai government is expected to complete the shipment of 1 million tons of rice to China in August 2015. At the same time, the amount of rice exported to China through the border will also increase significantly as a result of the signing of the border trade between China and Myanmar.

3. Rice sowing and growth in China in 2015: heavy rainfall in the south should be taken care of.

In mid-June, the National Bureau of Statistics estimated that the sown area of rice in China in 2015 increased by 0.2% over the previous year, reaching 30.37 million hectares. Among them, the sown area of early rice this year is the same as that of last year, about 5.8 million hectares.

By the end of June, most of the early rice producing areas were in the stage from heading and flowering to filling, some parts of South China and Jiangnan were in the milk stage, and most of Hainan had been harvested. Since the beginning of mid-late June, except for less precipitation in Guangdong, which is 63% of the normal value, the precipitation of other major producing provinces in China's double-cropping rice producing areas has been significantly higher than normal. At this time, early rice in the south is in the stage of heading and flowering. Continuous overcast and heavy rain may make pollination difficult, double the empty shell rate, reduce the seed setting rate, or adversely affect the yield. Jiangxi and other places in early July can be seen as the first harvest.

In terms of first-cropping rice, the northeast, Jianghan and western Jianghuai are in the tillering stage; the eastern part of Jianghuai and Jiangnan are in the stage from three leaves to transplanting and returning to green, and some areas have already tillered; most of the southwest is in the tillering and jointing stage and is locally in the booting and heading stage. the weather is favorable.

Looking forward to July, in the case of the off-season domestic demand and the imminent listing of southern early indica rice, but the minimum market support policy is still the same, it is still difficult for the market to fluctuate greatly. For the domestic rice producing areas during the sowing and growing period, attention should be paid to the effect of weather on rice yield, especially to prevent the adverse effects on rice production, such as periodic low temperature in the north of Northeast China, rainstorm and flood in the south of Jianghuai River, rainstorm and flood in the middle and east of Jiangnan, phased high temperature in the middle and south of Southwest and western South China, and typhoon in coastal areas.