Domestic grain demand will reach 1.4 trillion jin in five years.

Data: grain imports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time in 2014.

"judging from the domestic production situation, this year is a year in which grain has continuously achieved'12 consecutive increases', and the output is expected to reach about 1.23 trillion jin." Chen Xiwen, deputy head and office director of the Central Rural work leading Group and deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic leading Group Office, pointed out at the "2016 Financial and Economic Annual meeting" held a few days ago that this year's annual output has increased by more than 360 billion jin compared with 12 years ago.

This is a very remarkable achievement. The data show that during the 12th five-year Plan period, the construction of modern agriculture in China was accelerated, and the comprehensive agricultural production capacity was newly enhanced. Grain production reached two steps of 100 billion jin in five years, and the total grain output reached 1.2142 trillion jin in 2014. It has been stable at more than 1.2 trillion jin for two consecutive years.

However, behind the "12 consecutive increases" of grain can not hide the reality of "grain shortage in good years". Customs data show that the amount of grain imports has increased year by year in recent years. In 2014, China's grain imports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time. In recent years, China's three major grain varieties of rice, wheat and corn have been imported net for four consecutive years, while the import of corn substitute sorghum and DDGS (corn lees protein) has also increased greatly in recent years.

Han Changfu's article said that with the increase in the total population, the increase in the proportion of urban population, the improvement of the consumption level of residents and the expansion of the industrial use of agricultural products, the demand for agricultural products in China is showing a rigid growth trend. According to the forecast of experts, the demand for grain in China will be about 1.4 trillion jin by 2020, and there is still a shortfall of about 200 billion jin.

"the grain gap of 200 billion jin should mainly be the gap of feed grain, especially professional feed grain." Zhang Zhaoxin, a researcher and director of the Industry and Technology Research Office of the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that while China is a large grain producer, it is also a large grain consumer with high rigid demand.

This view is shared by Li Guoxiang, deputy director of the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In his view, by 2020, there will be no problem for China's grain production capacity to reach the level of 1.4 trillion jin, especially the major grain production capacity has increased, and the loose state can ensure the absolute security of China's grain.

Analysis of the types of non-staple grains can rely on imports

Chinese rice bowls should be firmly in their own hands at all times, and Chinese rice bowls should be filled with Chinese grain. The 13th five-year Plan proposes to adhere to the strictest cultivated land protection system, adhere to the red line of cultivated land, implement the strategy of storing grain on the ground and storing grain in technology, increase grain production capacity, and "ensure basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute safety of rations."

This is different from the formulation of the "12th five-year Plan" proposal of the central government, such as "taking the protection of national food security as the primary goal" and "implementing the national plan for increasing grain production capacity by 100 billion jin." This means that during the 13th five-year Plan period, after ensuring the safety of major grains and rations, part of the grain can be imported.

Han Changfu article pointed out that attention should be paid to the overall planning of both domestic and international markets and resources. We should appropriately increase the import of agricultural products according to domestic needs, strengthen the regulation and control of the import and export of agricultural products, grasp the scale and rhythm of the import of agricultural products, actively support the export of superior agricultural products, and achieve the effective allocation of domestic and foreign resources and the overall utilization of domestic and foreign markets.

Ye Xingqing, a researcher and head of the Rural Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that this is actually to strive for space for our country to let go of its hands and feet to adjust its structure and change its mode. "moderate import" is an important part of the new food security strategy put forward by the central government, which is a major strategic measure to build a new open economic system.

The article also points out that we should promote agricultural opening up to the outside world, strengthen agricultural cooperation with foreign countries, seize the major opportunity of "Belt and Road Initiative" construction, and speed up the cultivation of internationally competitive agricultural enterprise groups. Li Guoxiang said: the agriculture of some "Belt and Road Initiative" countries is underdeveloped, and China has obvious advantages in technology and management, which can help improve the agricultural science and technology level and competitiveness of the countries along the route, and there is huge room for cooperation.

A way out to cultivate a number of internationally competitive grain enterprises

In Li Guoxiang's view, China's strategy to ensure food security is to improve the competitiveness of China's agriculture. "usually, part of the grain can be imported. However, considering the extreme situation, China's grain production capacity should be restored in time to ensure the sustainable development and strength of resources, so that part of the cultivated land can be rotated and fallow. "

Ye Xingqing pointed out: during the 13th five-year Plan period, China's agricultural policy system should shift from production-oriented to competitiveness-oriented, and the agricultural policy system should be reconstructed with improving competitiveness as the core. He suggested that the promotion of land transfer and concentration, the cultivation of new business entities, and the improvement of agricultural labor productivity should be regarded as the core objectives of the agricultural policy system in the next step. In terms of the price of agricultural products, the pilot project of agricultural product target price subsidy reform with "market pricing and price compensation separation" as the core should be carried out.

At present, China's medium-and low-yield fields account for 2% of the arable land, while the effective irrigation area accounts for only a little more than half. The situation of relying on nature for food has not fundamentally changed. Han Changfu demanded that land renovation, the transformation of medium-and low-yield fields, and the construction of high-standard farmland should be promoted on a large scale, and 800 million mu of high-standard farmland should be built by 2020.

In addition, in recent years, the contribution of agricultural science and technology to grain production in China has increased year by year. At present, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress has reached 56%, more than 10 percentage points higher than that of 10 years ago, but there is still a big gap compared with developed countries. Han Changfu pointed out: we will optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure for agriculture, with emphasis on supporting agricultural infrastructure construction, agricultural structural adjustment, agricultural sustainable development, agricultural scientific and technological progress, and innovation in the mode of agricultural operation.

Zhang Keran, an analyst in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry of Huarong Securities, believes that in the long run, cultivating a number of internationally competitive grain enterprises will help to grasp the pricing power of the international grain and oil market, and the problem of food security can be fundamentally solved. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the leading enterprises of grain and oil industrialization.