Chen Zhangliang: Why did the competitiveness of China's agriculture suddenly decrease?

November 05, 2015, in Mudanjiang City, Heilongjiang Province, Linkou County, Heilongjiang Province, the National Grain Reserve is collecting and storing corn sold by farmers. Shao Guoliang / Visual China

Original title: Chen Zhangliang: why has China's Agricultural Competitiveness suddenly decreased?

[Caixin] (Reporter Wang Su) "this year, I went to three provinces and eight cities to do a survey, and the results were greatly surprised. China does not import so much because there is not enough food. all the beaten grain is in the warehouse. This year's warehouse is full and cannot be sold. What is sold is imported grain. " Chen Zhangliang, vice chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said on November 27 at the 2015 Annual meeting of the Urban China Plan, hosted by the McKinsey City China Plan.

Chen Zhangliang, a former president of China Agricultural University, was also in charge of agricultural work when he was vice chairman of the people's Government of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region. At the forum, Chen Zhangliang could not help spitting out the "strange current situation" of China's agriculture.

Import impact is serious.

Chen Zhangliang said that China's grain output has continued to grow, achieving "ten consecutive increases" and "eleven consecutive increases". "everyone is very happy that many agricultural economists have suggested that there is enough grain and stop producing. At the Fifth Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, a concept was formally put forward: 'fallow ploughing'. But the strange thing is that on the one hand, there is more grain, on the other hand, China's imports of foreign grain are increasing.

He pointed out that in 2012, China imported 80.25 million tons of grain, which is the first year in the history of the Chinese nation to import so much grain, "and almost all staple grains are imported." Among them, rice, wheat and corn imported more than 2.3 million tons, 3.7 million tons and 5.2 million tons respectively. Cotton also imported more than 5 million tons and white sugar imported more than 3.6 million tons.

"this year, I suddenly found out, 'Damn it.' I'm in charge of agriculture. How come it's all like this? The main sugar producing area is in Guangxi, which is under my control. China consumes 11 million to 13 million tons of white sugar. I am very nervous about importing so much white sugar in one breath. "

By 2013, he added, "things were getting weirder". Pigs, beef and mutton were imported and there didn't seem to be enough milk. In 2014, China itself hit 600 million tons of grain and imported more than 100 million tons, "equivalent to 1/7 of the grain coming in."

However, the results obtained through visits and investigations surprised Chen Zhangliang: the reason for China's large-scale import of foreign grain is not a shortage of domestic supply; on the contrary, "the warehouse is full of its own grain." Chen Zhangliang said, "now the mayor of the Northeast is the hardest, thinking about how to harvest the corn all over the city." The warehouse is full, and they are stepping up the construction of the warehouse. "

At present, in order to subsidize farmers' income, the state still implements the policy of minimum purchase price for some crops. But this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments not only did not continue to raise the minimum purchase price of wheat and rice as in previous years, but also lowered the temporary purchase and storage price of corn by 0.12 yuan for the first time to 1 yuan per jin. Chen Zhangliang said, "Why? It can't hold up. It crashed. It won't work if you add another ten cents (add up the storage price). At this moment, American corn is already in the Chinese port. Chinese corn cannot compete with American corn. "

According to agency monitoring, the price of US No. 2 yellow corn FOB delivered in November 24 and December was 170.2 US dollars / ton, or 1087 yuan / tonne. After paying tax at the Chinese port within the quota, the total cost was about 1560 yuan / ton, down 173 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. In some eastern coastal areas, even with an additional 65% of high tariffs, the three staple grains imported from abroad are cheaper than domestic grains.

In addition to grain, the same is true of staple agricultural products such as sugar. Chen Zhangliang said, "the white sugar in Australia is very beautiful. no matter how China taxes it, it will go to the dock at 4000 yuan (yuan), while farmers in Guangxi will die if the selling price does not reach 5100 yuan."

Why the sudden loss of competitiveness?

"in a short period of 10 years, 10 years ago we were cheaper than others, but all of a sudden they were all more expensive than internationally. What happened to Chinese agriculture? On the one hand, grain production is increased, on the other hand, it can only be imported. But if all imports are not enough, there is not enough food in the world, and we still have to solve this problem. " Chen Zhangliang said.

He believes that the reason for the decline in the competitiveness of China's agricultural products is that the cost is too high. In addition, over the past 10 years, "great changes have taken place in China's labor force, and problems have arisen in rural areas when we are discussing urbanization."

Chen Zhangliang said that with the advance of urbanization and the protection of the rights and interests of migrant workers by the Chinese government, we have found that "the wages of migrant workers are now the same as those of college graduates." College students are quite happy to earn 4000 yuan a month, and a babysitter can't be found for 4000 a month. " This is good, but the consequence is that "no one wants to stay and work in the countryside".

For example, he now earns 700 yuan a year for growing rice on an acre of land, 1000 yuan for corn, 500,600 yuan for soybeans and 800 yuan for wheat. "work hard from growing things to growing things, and then sell an acre of land to earn a few hundred yuan. A month's salary in the city is the income of a few mu of land. Chen Zhangliang says that in the past, it was inherently inefficient to leave old people and women to work in the fields. Now even women don't want to do it.

Chen Zhangliang also said that this year, a tea-making enterprise came to the Science and Technology Association to look for him, "Please, invent a machine for pulling tea for us." Because no one will pull the tea this year. I think 300 yuan a day is attractive to me, but rural women don't want to go because they have to get up early. "

With the outbreak of many contradictions in China's agricultural field, "what to do about China's agriculture" has become a common consideration of the policy circle, the academic community and the industry. Chen Zhangliang also put forward his own thoughts and suggestions at the forum.

He said: first, land transfer must be carried out on a large scale, turning a small piece of land into a large piece of land, otherwise "there is no way to enter modern agriculture." At present, the speed of land transfer in China is still too slow. In addition, how does large-scale circulation work? How can the rights and interests of the transferred peasants be protected? What about the landless peasants? All relevant policies should keep up.

He said that after the transfer of agricultural land, the "non-grain tendency" is more obvious. if farmers rent grapes, blueberries, kiwifruit, and so on, they can earn more than 10,000 yuan per mu of land, but only 1000 yuan for growing corn. In the long run, there will be no people in grain, which is a big problem, and the relevant policies should be taken into account in the implementation of agricultural land transfer.

Second, mechanization must be carried out on a large scale. Chen Zhangliang said that American agriculture can beat us because of the high degree of mechanization and the need for so many farmers. For example, when one mu of sugarcane is harvested in Guangxi, there must be four women working for a day. But a sugar cane harvester in the United States harvests between 20 mu and 27 mu of sugar cane an hour, which requires more than 80 people in China to work for a day. "the labor cost is here, so it must be mechanized." The premise of mechanization must be a large plot of land.

Third, new technology applications must keep up. He said, for example, that the application of GM technology has now formed a strange circle. "the government does not allow GM soybeans to be grown in Northeast China, but at the same time, China imports a large number of GM soybeans."

Chen Zhangliang said that these problems in China's agriculture may or may not be solved, but he still hopes that people from all walks of life can draw on collective wisdom and provide more suggestions.