Big data tells you the supply and demand of seed production in the new season.

Editor's note: Gansu, Xinjiang and other major seed production bases encountered high temperature and drought this year, seed production decreased, next year seed production can meet the needs? Autumn grain prices fall, widespread selling difficulties, next year how to adjust the planting structure? In short, how much do you charge this year? What to plant next year? The analysis of seed yield and supply of main crops in autumn in China can give you a clear answer.

this year

How many seeds are sown in spring and summer

hybrid maize

Seed production area increased by 470,000 mu and output increased by 86 million kg.

In 2015, the actual seed production area of hybrid corn nationwide was 3.42 million mu, and the harvested seeds were 1.096 billion kg, an increase of 470,000 mu and 86 million kg respectively over last year. This year, Xinjiang, Gansu and other major producing areas suffered rare high temperature disasters during the critical period of seed corn growth, resulting in a total reduction of 240 million kg. Yunnan Province suffered from drought and waterlogging in April and May and July and August respectively, resulting in a seed production decrease of 48 million kg. Therefore, this year hybrid corn seed production area increased more and yield increased little.

hybrid rice

The yield of seed production areas in Hunan and Jiangxi decreased. Jiangsu ten thousand mu seed production field scrap, twenty thousand mu seed transfer business.

In 2015, the actual seed production area of hybrid rice was 1.45 million mu, and the harvested seeds were 239 million kg, an increase of 50,000 mu and 0.09 million kg respectively over last year. Among them, the seed production area of two-line rice is 510,000 mu with a yield of 77.87 million kg, that of three-line rice is 940,000 mu with a yield of 160.68 million kg; the seed production area of early rice is 270,000 mu with a yield of 45.53 million kg, that of middle rice is 870,000 mu with a yield of 146.49 million kg, and that of late rice is 310,000 mu with a yield of 46.56 million kg. This year, the seed production area of hybrid rice increased year-on-year but the yield was basically flat. The main reasons were as follows: firstly, the seed production areas of Hunan, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Fujian suffered from low temperature and overcast rain during the flowering and pollination period of hybrid rice, resulting in a yield reduction of 16 million kg; secondly, some two-line combinations in Jiangsu and Fujian seed production areas had female parent fertility conversion, and 13,700 mu of seed production fields were basically scrapped; thirdly, Jiangsu was also affected by low temperature and lack of light at seedling stage, and 20,600 mu of seeds were converted to commercial.

Autumn and winter crop seeds

winter wheat

The area of wheat planted in autumn and winter next year will increase slightly, and 4.6 billion kg of seeds will meet the demand.

Summer harvest winter wheat seed quantity is sufficient, seed quality is generally good, this season autumn and winter wheat seed market operation overall stable, prices are basically the same as last year. In Shandong and Anhui, the unified seed supply policy for winter wheat was cancelled, and the market competition was fierce. The seed price declined slightly, and the commercialization rate also declined. This season, 11.03 million mu of wheat breeding area will be implemented for autumn and winter next year, 1 million mu less than last year, and the estimated seed yield is 4.6 billion kg. The planting area of wheat planted in autumn and winter next year is stable and slightly increasing, and 4.6 billion kg of seeds are expected to meet the demand for wheat seeds planted in autumn and winter next year.

winter rape

New production and inventory, it is expected that next year rape seed supply and demand surplus.

Affected by the reduction of field planting area, the sales volume of winter rape seed market in China decreased significantly this season, but the terminal retail price of seed did not drop significantly. This season, 120,000 mu of rapeseed seed production area will be implemented nationwide for autumn and winter planting next year, 40,000 mu less than last year, and it is estimated that 11.35 million kilograms of seeds can be produced. Among them, the seed production area of hybrid winter rape is 90,000 mu, with an estimated yield of 6.67 million kg; the breeding area of conventional winter rape is 30,000 mu, with an estimated yield of 4.68 million kg. Under the new situation that the planting benefit of winter rape is reduced and the planting area is lowered, it is estimated that the commercial seed consumption of rape planted in autumn and winter next year will be 13 million kg. In addition to the stock of 3 million kg this year, it is estimated that there will be more than supply and demand of rape seeds planted in autumn and winter next year.

next year

Supply and demand account of spring and summer sowing crop seeds

corn seeds

The surplus will continue to ease, and seed prices are expected to stabilize next spring, with prices of better-performing mid-late maturing varieties rising.

In terms of total supply, although the effective stock of seeds at the end of the period is still as high as 750 million kg, the main production areas of corn seed production this year have greatly reduced production due to disasters, with only 1.096 billion kg of new seeds, and the total supply of corn seeds sown in spring and summer next year will drop to 1.846 billion kg. Judging from next year's total demand, although this year's corn purchase price has been greatly lowered and the state has guided the adjustment of corn planting structure in the "sickle bend" area and other factors will reduce the corn planting area to some extent, under the background of the overall decline in agricultural product prices, corn still has a comparative advantage in terms of labor and time saving and efficiency. It is difficult to reduce the planting area by a large margin next year. It is estimated that the seed consumption will be 1.15 - 1.2 billion kg, and the supply and demand index will drop to less than 1.6. Ending stocks will fall below the upper limit of reasonable levels. Corn seed market prices are expected to remain basically stable next spring, but prices of individual mid-late maturing varieties that are heavily affected and perform well in the market will rise.

hybrid rice

Seed supply and demand structure differentiation, three-line hybrid rice seed supply surplus is still serious, two-line hybrid early rice supply and demand balance.

The hybrid rice seed market in 2015 is still depressed, enterprises try their best to digest the stock, driven by the increase of seed production of newly approved varieties, the seed production area implemented this year will increase slightly compared with the same period last year, with 239 million kg of newly harvested seeds, plus 100 million kg of effective stock, and the hybrid rice seed market will be available next year.

The total amount of seeds is 339 million kg. It is estimated that the planting area of hybrid rice will be stable and slightly reduced in 2016, and about 250 million kg of seeds will be needed for domestic use and export, and the total supply will be sufficient. However, from the perspective of variety structure, the oversupply of three-line hybrid rice seeds will still be serious next year, while the supply and demand of two-line hybrid early rice seeds have been balanced, and there may be a tight balance in Jiangxi and other places. Influenced by the lack of outstanding advantages of new hybrid rice varieties and the continuous expansion of planting of high-quality new varieties of conventional rice, the market price of early rice seeds expected to be in tight balance will not rise sharply; the pressure of oversupply in the seed market of middle rice is still very high, and some enterprises may dump the overstocked old varieties in order to avoid business transfer, and the seed market price is expected to decline.

other crops

Seed supply and demand balance more than, potato planting area steady increase.

It is estimated that next year, the planting area of hybrid cotton is 11 million mu and that of conventional cotton is 39 million mu, which will require 4.2 million kg and 88 million kg of commercial seeds. This year, the total seed supply of hybrid cotton and conventional cotton reached 4.78 million kg and 114.74 million kg respectively, and these cotton seeds can meet the demand for seed production next year. It is expected that the planting area of conventional rice will increase slightly and steadily, requiring 660 million kg of commercial seeds, and the number of new seeds produced this year will be enough to meet the demand for seed use next year. It is estimated that next year, the planting area of soybeans in China will be 92 million mu, which will require 330 million kilograms of commercial seeds, and it will be guaranteed that the newly produced seeds will meet the demand for commercial seeds next year. Under the pull of the development of potato staple food products and industries supported by the state, it is expected that the planting area of potatoes will increase steadily next year, and 5.3 billion kilograms of commercial seed potatoes will be needed.