The new question of "three more coexist" of grain: more output, more imports, more stocks.

More output, more imports and more stocks: how to answer the new examination questions of "coexistence of three kinds of grain" in China

China's total summer grain output in 2015 was 141.066 million tons (282.13 billion jin), up 3.3 percent from 2014, according to data released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. So far, our summer grain has achieved "twelve consecutive abundant".

"Twelve consecutive abundant" achievements gratifying, for the stable and healthy development of the economy to provide a solid foundation. However, at the same time of bumper harvests in successive years, China's grain imports and inventories have also maintained a synchronous increase trend. Last year, China's grain imports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time, and the inventory rose to an all-time high in recent years. China's grain is encountering a new problem of "coexistence of more than three things" with more output, more imports and more stocks.

The phenomenon of "coexistence of three kinds of grain" in China appears day by day

While the total amount of grain is rising steadily, China's grain imports are also growing rapidly. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first half of this year, China imported 16.29 million tons of grain and grain flour, including wheat, corn and barley, up more than 60 percent year-on-year.

It is worth noting that while grain output and import volume have "double increased", China's total grain stocks have also reached historical highs in recent years.

The reporter learned from the State Food Bureau that in the past 10 years, the average annual growth rate of domestic grain output was less than 3%, but the stock growth rate exceeded 8%. Some major grain producing areas are facing huge pressure on collection and storage, and some varieties have experienced periodic surplus.

For example, Heilongjiang Province, as an important granary of the country, has set a record high in grain purchase volume and policy grain purchase volume in 2014 - 2015, with a substantial increase in inventory and a severe situation of safe grain storage.

"It's a good thing to harvest grain year after year, but the pressure on storage is getting bigger and bigger." Xu Ming, deputy director of the State Grain Bureau, said that although last year the transformation of "dangerous warehouses and old warehouses" was intensified and the construction of 100 billion jin of new warehouses was accelerated, the gap in the capacity of grain stores nationwide is still not small.

"On the one hand, grain production is increasing, but on the other hand, imports are increasing, and stocks have recently reached an all-time high. The simultaneous increase in output, imports and stocks has become a new problem facing China's grain industry, which requires urgent attention." Chen Xiwen, director of the China Agricultural Office, said.

Price inversion: the "mystery" of the phenomenon of "coexistence of more than three"

Analysts believe that the price inversion between domestic and foreign countries, production and processing is the ultimate "mystery" of the phenomenon of "coexistence of more than three kinds" of grain in China, reflecting the reality of low agricultural productivity in China.

"The increase in imports is not due to insufficient food, but mainly due to the huge price difference between domestic and foreign food." Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, introduced that since 2004, China has implemented the minimum purchase price and temporary collection and storage policy, hoping to improve farmers 'enthusiasm for growing grain and stabilize grain production. However, with the gradual rise of purchase price, the price of domestic grain market rises with it. However, in recent years, the price of grain in international market has turned downward, and the price inversion of domestic and foreign agricultural products is becoming more and more obvious.

The reporter learned that the current trend of price inversion at home and abroad has been extended from soybean, corn and other varieties to other grain varieties. Compared with the low international grain prices, the prices of some domestic grain varieties are much higher, and the phenomenon of "price barrier lake" is obvious.

Behind the increase in inventory, in addition to reserve system factors, price inversion is also an important driver. "Driven by profits, many traders and grain processing enterprises are more willing to purchase low-priced foreign grain and correspondingly reduce the purchase of domestic grain. The consequence is that grain is collected from the fields and cannot enter the processing enterprises, so it has to be stored in grain depots, accumulating more and more." Beidahuang Rice Industry Group Royal Green Rice Co., Ltd. Manager Liu Yanqiu said.

Take corn with the largest yield among the three major grains as an example, according to industry insiders, in the past one or two years, a large influx of low-priced barley and sorghum from abroad has replaced corn as domestic feed grain,"topping" the sales of domestic corn stocks, resulting in more and more corn stocks, which have become the most stocked grain varieties at present. Anhui grain wholesale trading market data also confirmed this phenomenon, June this year the first round of temporary storage corn auction has ended, corn auction volume 23398 tons, actual clinch a deal 3000 tons, turnover rate is only more than 10%.

"Due to the rising cost of domestic agricultural production year by year, in order to improve farmers 'enthusiasm for growing grain, the state raises the minimum purchase price year by year, which together with other factors gives birth to the price inversion between domestic and foreign countries, production and processing fields, and gives birth to the current phenomenon of' coexistence of three more'. The fundamental reason lies in the high agricultural production cost and low labor productivity in our country." said Kong Xiangzhi, professor of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development of Renmin University of China.

How to get out of the dilemma of "three multi-coexistence"

Analysts believe that in order to solve the test of "coexistence of three things", the state should reform the existing grain storage system on the one hand and curb the trend of price inversion; on the other hand, it should speed up the transformation of agricultural development mode, strive to reduce agricultural production costs, improve labor productivity and transform to modern agriculture.

"On the premise of protecting farmers 'interests, we should gradually shift the minimum purchase price, temporary storage and agricultural subsidy policies to the target price system of agricultural products, reduce the distortion of price support policies to the market, and reverse the phenomenon of price inversion." Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.

"On the basis of the basic self-sufficiency of rations determined by the central government, more measures should be taken to promote agricultural science and technology progress, innovate agricultural management system, change agricultural development mode, improve cultivated land output rate and agricultural labor productivity, so as to reduce production costs and improve the competitiveness of China's agriculture." Chen Xiwen said.

Although the mechanization rate of sowing and harvesting and the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology in China have increased year by year, due to the large number of farmers and the small scale of operation, the agricultural labor productivity is still far from that of developed agricultural countries, and the "lame leg phenomenon" of agricultural production still exists.

"On average, a labor force in our country can only plant about 7 mu of cultivated land. However, under the background of mechanized farming, a labor force in Europe can plant hundreds of mu, while a labor force in the United States can plant thousands or even tens of thousands of mu. This gap is the gap in labor productivity." Zheng Xinli, vice president of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said.

"If China wants to become stronger, it must follow the path of modern agriculture. We should develop moderate scale operation through system innovation, cultivate new business entities, reduce agricultural production costs by improving scale efficiency and scientific and technological level, and get out of the dilemma of 'coexistence of three multi'." Kong Xiangzhi suggested.