There is a rising market in the market after grease.

Since last week hit the year's low rebound, this week (July 13-19, 2015) the three major domestic oil varieties as a whole to maintain shock finishing. On the 16th, soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil futures fell again. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures 1601 contracts all opened low and closed down 1.08%, 1.54% and 0.79%, respectively.

Industry insiders say oil futures are constrained by the lack of a positive boost in the outer disk, adequate domestic supply, overall weakness in domestic commodities and low oil prices. The future inventory will restrain the future price trend, but in the later stage, with the heating up of the weather market speculation, the decline of soybean arrival volume, and the gradual decrease of the pressure of inventory increase, the future price of oil varieties may still rise in band.

"the collective decline of the three major domestic oil futures on the 16th was mainly boosted by the lack of positive factors in the outer disk market and adequate supply in the domestic market." Founder mid-term analyst Yang Lina said that as Meidou is in the growing period, the weather hype does not have a substantial positive theme for the time being, resulting in a high profit-taking tendency. The Malaysian palm oil market also lacks too much good, with exports falling month-on-month in the first half of the month, making the market worried about demand. In addition, domestic supply is relatively abundant, resulting in a lack of incentive for prices to rise. As a large number of oils and oils arrived in Hong Kong in June, the supply of oils and oils increased, with soybean oil stocks of nearly 900000 tons and palm oil port stocks rebounding of nearly 600000 tons. And rapeseed oil itself is also in the new rapeseed market crushing period, lack of too much support.

Analysts said that the overall performance of domestic commodities was weak on the 16th, and the oil market also lacked positive factors to support its sharp rebound. And the low volatility of crude oil prices also curbed the rebound in futures prices.

"at present, the key factors that dominate the trend of oil futures are the intensity of weather speculation during the growing period of US beans, changes in domestic demand for oil meal, crude oil trends and fluctuations in the capital market." Analysts said that in general, the intensity of weather speculation during the growing season of American beans will have a significant impact on oils and oilseeds. In addition, the change of domestic oil meal demand will also affect the relative strength of oil meal price, thus affecting the oil price. At present, soybean meal demand is unexpectedly strong, this round of rebound is obvious, while oil stocks are rising, relative demand is weak. Therefore, the strong meal and weak oil will dominate the trend of the stage.

As for the impact of the El Nino effect, analysts believe that at present, its stage effect is not obvious, and it has not had a significant impact on the yield, but it is still in the process of development, and the effect may be more obvious during the Mid-Autumn Festival.

For the future, analysts believe that downstream consumption of oil tends to stabilize, future inventory will restrain soybean oil, palm oil prices will also follow the downward trend. Therefore, at present, the future price of oil is still in the period of adjustment.

At present, there is no shortage in the overall supply of oil, only the opportunity of relative strength change in the stage, and the trend node has not appeared yet. Therefore, it is expected that the future price will still be dominated by the rise in the band. In addition, under the early systemic shock, after the oil futures price recovered rapidly, the market needed a process of sorting and repairing. In the later stage, with the heating up of the weather market speculation and the decline in the amount of soybeans arriving at the port in the later stage, the crushing volume shrank, and the pressure on the increase of oil inventory gradually decreased, and the oil band may still rise. In addition, the tendency to reduce the ratio of oil to meal may also gradually face transformation, which will also bring opportunities for oil upward.