How to answer well the new examination question of "the coexistence of three kinds of grain" in our country

More output, more imports, more inventory: how to answer the new question of "three more co-existence" of grain in our country

China's total summer grain output in 2015 was 141.066 million tons (282.13 billion jin), an increase of 3.3 percent over 2014, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th. At this point, China's summer grain has realized the "twelve consecutive abundant".

The achievements of "Twelve Lianfeng" have provided a solid foundation for the stable and healthy development of the economy. However, while there have been bumper harvests in successive years, China's grain imports and stocks have also maintained a simultaneous increase. Last year, China's grain imports broke through the 100 million tons mark for the first time, and the inventory rose to an all-time high in recent years. China's grain is suffering from the new problem of "the coexistence of more output, more imports and more stocks".

The phenomenon of "three multiplies coexisting" in grain in China is becoming more and more obvious.

While the total amount of grain continues to rise, China's grain imports are also growing rapidly. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 16.29 million tons of cereals and cereal flour, including wheat, corn and barley, in the first half of this year, an increase of more than 60 percent over the same period last year.

It is worth noting that with the "double increase" of grain output and imports, the total amount of grain stocks in China has also reached an all-time high in recent years.

The reporter learned from the State Grain Administration that over the past 10 years, domestic grain production has grown at an average annual rate of less than 3%, but inventory growth has exceeded 8%. Some major grain producing areas are facing tremendous pressure of collection and storage, and there is a periodic surplus of some varieties.

For example, Heilongjiang Province, as an important national granary, its grain purchase volume and policy grain purchase volume reached an all-time high again in the 2014-2015 grain purchase year, with a substantial increase in inventory and a grim situation of safe grain storage.

"A bumper harvest of grain in successive years is a good thing, but the pressure on storage is also increasing." Xu Ming, deputy director of the State Grain Administration, said that although the transformation of "old dangerous warehouses" was stepped up last year and the construction of 100 billion jin of new warehouses was accelerated, there is still a large gap in the capacity of grain storages across the country.

"on the one hand, grain production is increasing, but on the other hand, imports are increasing, and inventories have recently reached an all-time high. The simultaneous increase in output, imports and stocks has become a new problem facing China's grain, which needs urgent attention. " Chen Xiwen, director of the China Agricultural Office, said.

Price upside down: the answer to the riddle of the phenomenon of "three more coexisting"

Analysts believe that the price inversion between domestic and foreign countries, production and processing is the ultimate "answer" to the phenomenon of "three multiplicity" of grain in our country, reflecting the reality of low agricultural productivity in our country.

"the increase in imports is not due to our lack of food, but mainly due to the huge price gap between domestic and foreign grain prices." Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that since 2004, China has implemented the minimum purchase price and temporary purchase and storage policy, hoping to increase farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and stabilize grain production. However, with the gradual rise of the purchase price, the price of the domestic grain market rises with the rising tide, but in recent years, the grain price of the international market has turned downwards, and the price of agricultural products at home and abroad is becoming more and more obvious.

The reporter learned that at present, the upside-down trend of prices at home and abroad has expanded from soybeans, corn and other varieties to other grain varieties, and the prices of some domestic grain varieties are much higher than the low prices of international grain, and the phenomenon of "price barrier lake" is obvious.

Behind the increase in inventory, in addition to the reserve system factors, the price upside down is also an important driver. "driven by profits, many traders and grain processing enterprises prefer to purchase low-priced grain from abroad and correspondingly reduce the purchase of domestic grain. The consequence is that the grain is collected from the land and cannot enter the processing enterprises, so it has to be stored in grain depots, accumulating more and more." Liu Yanqiu, manager of Beidahuang Rice Group Yulu Rice Co., Ltd., said.

Take corn, which has the largest yield of the three major grains, as an example, according to people in the industry, in the past year or two, a large number of foreign low-cost barley and sorghum have poured in, replacing corn as domestic feed grain, and "topping" the sales of domestic corn stocks. as a result, the inventory of corn is increasing, and it has become the grain variety with the largest stock at present. Data from the Anhui Grain Wholesale Trading Market also confirmed this phenomenon. In June this year, the first round of temporary storage corn auction was over. The corn auction volume was 23398 tons, and the actual turnover was 3000 tons, with a turnover rate of just over 10%.

"due to the rising cost of domestic agricultural production year by year, in order to improve farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, the state has raised the minimum purchase price year by year, which, together with other factors, has given birth to the price inversion between domestic and foreign countries, production and processing fields. the fundamental reason for the current phenomenon of 'coexistence of more than three' lies in the high cost of agricultural production and low labor productivity in our country." Kong Xiangzhi, a professor at the School of Agriculture and Rural Development, Renmin University of China.

How to get out of the predicament of "three more coexisting"

Analysts believe that to solve the test of "coexistence of more than three things," on the one hand, the state should reform the existing grain collection and storage system and curb the trend of upside down prices; on the other hand, it should speed up the transformation of the mode of agricultural development, strive to reduce agricultural production costs, improve labor productivity, and transform to modern agriculture.

"on the premise of protecting the interests of farmers, we should promote the gradual transformation of the policies of minimum purchase prices, temporary purchase and storage, and agricultural subsidies to the target price system for agricultural products, reduce the distortions caused by price support policies to the market, and reverse the phenomenon of price upside down." Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.

"on the basis of the basic self-sufficiency of food rations determined by the central government, more measures should be taken to promote the progress of agricultural science and technology, innovate the agricultural management system, change the mode of agricultural development, and increase the output rate of cultivated land and agricultural labor productivity. In order to reduce production costs and improve the competitiveness of China's agriculture." Chen Xiwen said.

Although the mechanization rate of sowing and harvesting and the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology in China are increasing year by year, due to the large number of farmers and small operation scale, agricultural labor productivity is still far away from developed agricultural countries. The "lame leg" phenomenon of "one leg long" (high grain yield per unit area) and "one leg short" (low labor productivity) still exists in agricultural production.

"the average labor force in China can only grow about 7 mu of arable land, but under the background of mechanized farming, one labor force in Europe can grow hundreds of mu, while in the United States, a labor force can grow thousands of mu or even tens of thousands of mu. This gap is the gap in labor productivity." Zheng Xinli, vice president of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, said.

"if China's agriculture wants to be strong, it must take the road of modern agriculture. It is necessary to develop appropriate scale operation through institutional innovation, cultivate new business entities, and reduce the cost of agricultural production by improving economies of scale and the level of science and technology, so as to get out of the predicament of the coexistence of "three more". " Kong Xiangzhi suggested.