Analysis of Fishery Economic situation in the first half of 2015

Since the beginning of this year, under the background of increasing downward pressure on the macro economy, fishery production has maintained a stable development trend, the market transaction is active and the supply is sufficient, and the fishery economy has achieved new development at a high starting point. At the same time, problems such as the downward price of aquatic products, the difficulty of export and the poor situation of resources have gradually emerged, and there are many challenges in maintaining the steady and rapid development of the fishery economy throughout the year.

I. basic situation

(1) Fishery production remains stable, and the growth rate of fishery economy exceeds that of agricultural economy. According to the half-yearly report of fishery statistics, the national output of aquatic products in the first half of the year was 27.0009 million tons, an increase of 3.20 percent over the same period last year, of which aquaculture production was 21.1438 million tons, an increase of 4.13 percent over the same period last year, and fishing production was 5.8571 million tons, down 0.03 percent from the same period last year. According to another survey, the total output of offshore fisheries in the first half of the year was 1.1126 million tons, an increase of 16.00 percent over the same period last year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national fishery output value in the first half of the year was 415.256 billion yuan, an increase of 5.91 percent over the same period last year, and the fishery added value was 226.005 billion yuan, an increase of 5.92 percent over the same period last year, 2.2 percentage points higher than the added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.

(2) the market is active and the price is generally weak. According to monitoring, trading in the aquatic products wholesale market was relatively active in the first half of the year, with market trading volume and turnover increasing by 7.32% and falling by 1.92% respectively over the same period last year. Market prices continued the weak trend of the previous year, and the comprehensive average price dropped slightly by 0.96% compared with the same period last year, of which the comprehensive average price of seawater products dropped by 0.21% year-on-year, and the comprehensive average price of freshwater products dropped by 1.92%. Among the 49 varieties monitored, the prices of 18 varieties decreased compared with the same period last year, 14 varieties remained basically the same, and 17 varieties rose year-on-year. Although the overall price decline is not large, it is the first time since 2009 that the prices of seawater products and freshwater products have fallen at the same time.

(3) the increase in export volume decreases while the import volume decreases. According to customs statistics, the total import and export volume of aquatic products in the first half of the year was 3.8308 million tons, down 7.48 percent from the same period last year, and the total import and export volume was 13.728 billion US dollars, down 4.67 percent from the same period last year. Of this total, exports were 1.8928 million tons, with exports of US $9.581 billion, up 1.52% and 2.39% respectively over the same period last year. Among the major exporting countries and regions, exports to ASEAN and Taiwan Province increased by 31.26% and 4.43% respectively, while exports to Japan, the United States, the European Union, Hong Kong, China and South Korea fell by 1.37%, 2.49%, 5.04%, 18.94% and 11.67% respectively. Imports were 1.938 million tons, with imports of US $4.147 billion, down 14.84% and 9.57% respectively from the same period last year, of which fishmeal imports and imports decreased by 43.06% and 20.80% respectively. The trade surplus was 5.434 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.91 percent over the same period last year.

II. Main characteristics

(1) the benefit of breeding has declined. Affected by the macroeconomic downturn and the low prices of livestock and poultry products, the overall price of aquatic products in the first half of the year was on the low side, especially the low price of bulk breeding varieties, which had an obvious impact on the breeding benefit, except that the rebound in the price of carp was relatively good. The price of grass carp fell significantly, and the prices of silver carp, bighead carp and crucian carp also decreased in varying degrees. After several years of deep adjustment, the prices of sea cucumbers, river crabs, turbot and other medium and high-priced species tend to be stable, although the culture efficiency is not as good as in previous years, but it is still profitable. The high price of shrimp is slightly adjusted, the breeding disease has not been effectively solved, and the risk is still high. The benefit of marine shellfish culture is better, and the production enthusiasm of farmers is generally high.

(2) the situation of resources and production safety is grim. Affected by the warm winter effect, the decline of diesel prices and other factors, fishery production was relatively stable in the first half of the year, but the proportion of low-value catch was generally high, the specification of economic species was small, and the situation of poor fishery resources did not change significantly. In addition, severe typhoons and other disastrous weather frequently occur, the situation of safe production of fishing vessels is grim, and fishing risks continue to increase.

(3) the international trade situation is not optimistic. The production situation of the leading variety is not good. The main export species are faced with difficulties in different degrees except shellfish. Among them, tilapia orders are low, and the enthusiasm of tilapia culture has declined. This year, the number of seeds and seedlings dropped by 46.7% and 11.95% respectively compared with the same period last year. The FDA of the United States recently issued a warning on the quality and safety of tilapia products exported from China, and strengthened product inspection. The follow-up risks of tilapia culture and processing are still high. Although the disease of shrimp culture has been controlled, the cultivation rate is still low, the price of raw shrimp remains high, and it is difficult for processing and export enterprises to maintain. The quantity and price of eel larvae fluctuate greatly, and the price of adult fish is restricted by the Japanese market, so there are great uncertainties in the development of the industry. Major export markets are showing signs of shrinking. Japan, the United States, Europe and South Korea, as the most important fish consumption market in the world and China's traditional export market, my exports to them have declined to varying degrees. Although exports to ASEAN have increased significantly, export products are mainly in the form of primary frozen products, which are mostly used for re-export after processing in ASEAN, and the isomorphic competition among ASEAN countries to China's aquatic products processing industry has further increased. Imports fell sharply. The import volume of fishmeal has dropped both, and the import unit price has increased significantly, which has a negative impact on our aquaculture. The import of raw materials for imported materials also decreased significantly, which led to the weak growth of imported processing trade. In addition, although the state has stepped up efforts to crack down on and control, the smuggling of aquatic products imports still occurs frequently, resulting in the loss of national tax revenue, endangering the rights and interests of consumers, and disrupting market order.

(4) the transformation and upgrading of industries has been accelerated. In the face of the new situation, local governments and enterprises have taken the initiative to change the way and adjust the structure, carried out many useful explorations, and achieved better economic and social benefits. For example, in order to alleviate the downward pressure of river crab price, Jiangsu and Hubei provinces vigorously explore and promote the ecological model of multi-variety mixed culture, strengthen brand promotion and e-commerce marketing, effectively control production costs and reduce market risk. Zetan fishery professional cooperative in Tushan Town, Laizhou City, Shandong Province, continues to strengthen the exploration of fishery production and management model, organically combines mariculture and proliferation with the protection of resources and environment, and realizes large-scale production, ecological management, organized and information-based management. market-oriented and brand management provides a typical "Zetan model" for the transformation and upgrading of the national fishery. In addition, more and more provinces begin to pay attention to the application of new information technologies to promote the development of fisheries, actively trying the application of information achievements such as the Internet of things, e-commerce, big data, and cloud platforms in modern fishery production, operation and management, and actively open up a new pattern for the development of "Internet + modern fishery".

III. Prediction of the situation for the whole year

This year, the Ministry of Agriculture has continuously stepped up the clean-up and renovation of "no-household nets" and "three nothing" vessels involved in fishing. The work of environmental protection and ecological restoration of fishery resources has been carried out in an orderly manner, and fishing management has become more standardized. However, in view of the fact that the situation of fishery resources can hardly be significantly improved in a short period of time, it is expected that fishery fishing production for the whole year will remain basically stable or decline slightly. The benefit of large freshwater fish culture has declined, but due to the large volume and difficulties in transformation, the seedling investment continues to maintain a steady increase, and it is expected that the annual output will still increase; the production of sea treasures will bid farewell to the era of profiteering, prices tend to be rational, production tends to be orderly, and production is expected to increase slightly compared with the previous year; prices of other varieties are mixed, production is generally stable, and production is expected to increase slightly.

To sum up, it is expected that the output of aquatic products for the whole year will still maintain the basic trend of steady and slight increase, the price will pick up slightly, but the overall trend will remain weak, international trade will face greater difficulties, and the total volume of trade for the whole year may decline. In the face of difficult situations, some localities and enterprises have faced difficulties and sought innovation and change in strengthening production management, paying attention to brand building, creating consumer culture, and innovative management channels, and achieved better economic and social benefits. it provides a new driving force for the transformation and upgrading of traditional fishery to modern fishery.