The peak of wheat purchase in North China is difficult to appear

The 4-month wheat centralized purchase period has been quietly more than half. Since the summer harvest in 2015, the purchase and sale activity of new wheat is not as active as in previous years, and the market price appears weak year-on-year.

Good wheat price stabilizes, low wheat price is difficult to sell

Since the middle of July, the heat of new wheat purchase and sales market in the main producing areas has cooled down compared with the previous period, and the price of wheat with good quality has basically stabilized and operated around the lowest purchase price; while the price of wheat with poor quality continues to weaken under the atmosphere of weak demand, especially some wheat with poor quality in southern wheat areas is not only low in price, but also difficult to sell.

At present, the purchase price of new wheat in southern Hebei, northwest Shandong and northern Henan is mostly 1.2-1.22 yuan/catty, down 0.05 yuan/catty compared with the same period last year; the purchase price of new wheat in central and eastern Henan and southwest Shandong is mostly 1.19-1.21 yuan/catty, and the purchase price in northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu and central part is mostly 1.17-1.19 yuan/catty, all of which are down 0.04 yuan/catty compared with the same period last year.

Because the state did not relax the standard for the purchase of imperfect grain wheat before, a large number of wheat with quality deviation in some areas of southern wheat area this year remained in circulation link, and the phenomenon of low price and difficult sale was obvious. At present, the purchase price of 12%-20% imperfect grain and 13% moisture in white wheat market in Hubei Province is 1.04-1.08 yuan/catty, which is 0.06-0.08 yuan/catty lower than that in the middle of June. A large number of imperfect grain wheat purchased by some traders in the early stage cannot be sold.

Recently, the government of Anhui Province relaxed the minimum purchase standards for new and rotating wheat reserves at provincial, municipal and county levels, and relaxed the standard for imperfect grains from 10% to 15%. The relaxation of wheat purchase standards in some areas of the south will help solve the problem of poor quality wheat unsalable.

Policy factors support wheat prices hard to fall

Although the relevant state policies indicate that the market expectation of rigid increase in grain prices should be changed, the function of "income protection" of the minimum purchase price policy should be weakened, and the role of the market mechanism should be better played, but as a wheat variety of "rations", the overall situation of the state continuing to implement the minimum purchase price policy has not changed. The national minimum purchase price policy continues to be implemented, and the bottom support of the wheat market will continue to exist.

As an important channel for market supply, the national wheat auction base price is stable. At present, the base price of second-class wheat in temporary storage is 1.25 yuan/catty, which is basically the same as the current price of old wheat to factory and higher than the purchase price of new wheat. Although the current Chenmai market purchase and sale light, but the price is relatively stable, in the short term there is no factor will make Chenmai prices show signs of significant changes. With the price of old wheat as a reference, it is difficult for the price of new wheat to fall sharply.

Affected by weak demand, although this summer harvest market entities listed to buy wheat mentality cautious, but high-quality and high-price market behavior is vividly reflected. Traders from all over the country are still active in purchasing wheat with good quality, while the enthusiasm for purchasing wheat with deviation in quality is not high. It can be said that "high quality wheat is difficult to buy" and "poor quality wheat is difficult to sell" coexist.

The current wheat purchase price is lower than the market expectation, which is weaker than that of the same period last year, which is not only related to the weakening of policy pull effect this year, but also related to the current high temperature weather, weak flour market demand, low operating rate of flour milling enterprises and low acquisition enthusiasm. The market expects that wheat prices may improve after September enters the peak season for flour consumption.

Youmai is still tight and imports continue to increase

The agency estimates that the market is estimated to be about 3 million tons due to a decrease in the planting area of strong gluten wheat this year and cloudy weather in some strong gluten wheat planting areas, resulting in a decline in the quality of new wheat and a decrease in the yield of new strong gluten wheat.

Influenced by the tight supply of high-quality wheat, the price of high-quality strong-gluten wheat in the main producing areas has been obviously high since it came into the market this year. Recently, although the price of common wheat is stable and weak, the price of high-quality wheat is still firm.

At present, the purchase price of Shandong high-quality wheat Jinan 17 market is 2640 yuan/ton, Hebei Shiluan 02-1 purchase price is 2800 yuan/ton, Henan Zhengmai 366 purchase price is 2840-2900 yuan/ton, and the price difference with current ordinary wheat reaches 420-460 yuan/ton.

Customs data show that China imported 429,100 tons of wheat in June, an increase of 282% over the same period last year and 16.69% over the previous month. Wheat imports have increased significantly for two consecutive months.

Market personage thinks, Although the domestic and foreign wheat market linkage is not strong, But in the huge domestic and foreign price difference and domestic high-quality wheat supply tight pattern, The second half of wheat imports will increase, Will correspondingly increase the domestic market supply pressure.