Phosphate fertilizer may stand out in the chemical fertilizer market.

The price of crude oil has fallen recently, affecting many related markets, but the phosphate fertilizer market has maintained a good trend in the past year, and May and June, when demand is the least, have passed. After that, domestic demand will start one after another, and even if prices fall, it will not be too fast. Phosphate fertilizer is expected to excel in the market in September.

In the first half of this year China's export volume of monoammonium and diammonium increased significantly. According to customs data, China exported 569800 tons of monoammonium phosphate in May, up 610 percent over the same period last year; in April, it exported 123600 tons, up 72.34 percent; in March, it exported 201000 tons, up 38.04 percent over the same period last year; in February, monoammonium phosphate exports were 219100 tons, up 141.59 percent over the same period last year; and in January, monoammonium phosphate exports were 60900 tons, up 140 percent over the same period last year. From January to May this year, China exported 1.1745 million tons of monoammonium phosphate, an increase of 176 percent compared with 425100 tons in the same period last year.

Last year, the production of phosphate fertilizer decreased by nearly 15% compared with 2013, but diammonium phosphate exported 4.87 million tons last year, an increase of nearly 30% over 2013. Monoammonium phosphate exported 2.33 million tons, an increase of nearly 250% over 2013, and the exports of diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate were mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. Between an increase and a decrease, phosphate fertilizer has become one of the most thorough destocking products in chemical fertilizer varieties. Carry-over inventory has been greatly reduced this year.

In the face of the global economic downturn and falling commodity prices, phosphate fertilizers, especially diammonium phosphate, have maintained a strong trend in the past year, but it takes a lot of courage to be optimistic about the trend at a later stage. The author believes that in the case of serious overcapacity of phosphate fertilizer in the world, the global replenishment cycle will end sooner or later, and may come soon. But there is no need to be too pessimistic about the domestic market in autumn: historical experience tells us that cliff falls in products generally occur in the process of serious demand shortages and destocking.

There is no doubt that the current domestic phosphate fertilizer inventory is not high, and May and June, when demand is the most insufficient, has passed. After that, domestic demand will start one after another, and even if prices fall, it will not be too fast, which means that phosphate fertilizer will still be able to get away with it until September this year.