Strengthening the Construction of Grain production capacity to ensure National Food Security

China is a large developing country with a population of more than 1 billion, and the food problem has always been a top priority in the national economy and people's livelihood. Since 2004, China's grain production has increased for 11 consecutive years, and its comprehensive production capacity has reached a new level of 600 million tons, which has made great contributions to safeguarding the overall situation of reform and opening up and economic development. However, in recent years, under the influence of consumption-driven and upside-down grain prices at home and abroad, there has been a new situation of increasing grain production, increasing stocks and increasing imports at the same time. At the same time, it is faced with new challenges such as the ceiling of agricultural prices, the rise of production costs, and the intensification of resources and environmental "hard constraints". The space for the development of grain production has been squeezed. Whether China's grain production can continue to maintain the momentum of steady growth in the future is directly related to the steady progress of national modernization. Recently, the "opinions on speeding up the Transformation of the Mode of Agricultural Development" issued by the General Office of the State Council clearly put forward the need to adhere to the primary premise of strengthening grain production capacity and adhere to the red line of cultivated land, so that the area, quality and use will not be reduced, and the grain production capacity will not be changed. steadily increase grain production capacity, ensure that rice bowls are firmly in their own hands at all times, consolidate the foundation for changing the mode of agricultural development, and enhance grain production capacity. Improving the level of food security is the primary task to change the mode of agricultural development. This needs to be understood from two aspects of grain demand and supply in our country.

From the point of view of grain demand, it can be divided into ration grain, feed grain, industrial grain and seed grain according to its use, and can be divided into grain, legume and potato according to its variety attribute. According to the analysis and calculation of the food policy innovation team of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, by 2020, China's per capita grain consumption of 500 kg is essential.

First of all, the total population and its nutritional needs are the basis of food consumption. Economic growth and higher income prompt people to improve their lives, reduce food rations and increase animal food consumption. Since the 1990s, the natural growth rate of China's population has continued to decline. in the future, according to the natural population growth rate of 5/1000, it is predicted that the total population of our country will increase to 1.409 billion in 2020. If China's economic growth rate is about 7% in the next 10 years, China's per capita GDP will reach 11000 US dollars by 2020, combined with the recommended intake of calories, protein and other nutrients in the Dietary guidelines for Chinese residents 2011, with reference to the food structure of Japan, Taiwan and other places during this development period. It is predicted that by 2020, China's per capita consumption of meat, milk, aquatic products and eggs will increase to 75.5 kg, 40 kg, 44 kg and 21 kg respectively, equivalent to 298 kg of feed grain per capita. According to the Yearbook of Chinese Household Survey, the per capita consumption of food rations in China was 148.7 kg in 2013. According to the energy replacement attribute, the per capita consumption of animal food can also be saved by 8.7kg. At that time, the per capita consumption of food rations will be reduced to 140kg. The total amount of food rations and feed grain per capita is 438kg, and the per capita feed grain consumption is 2.1times that of per capita rations.

Secondly, the indirect consumption of grain should also consider industrial grain. In recent years, China's industrial grain consumption has stabilized at about 100 million tons. Under the new normal of economic growth, if China's industrial grain consumption remains at the current level, it is estimated that China's per capita industrial grain consumption will be about 70 kg by 2020.

Third, since seed grain does not need to be considered for imported grain, the predicted values of the above-mentioned per capita grain rations, feed grain and industrial grain are summed up, and it is estimated that the per capita grain demand in China will be 508kg and the total grain demand will be 716 million tons by 2020. If China imports 100 million tons of grain (including soybeans) in the future, the domestic grain production capacity will need to reach 616 million tons. At this time, the seed grain needed for domestic grain production will be included, according to the average 4.6% of the total domestic grain output in the past 10 years. As a result, it is estimated that China's total grain production capacity will reach 641 million tons (per capita grain output 454.9 kg) by 2020.

Compared with China's total grain output of 607 million tons (per capita grain output of 443.8 kg) in 2014, China's total grain output needs to grow at an average annual rate of 5.67 million tons in the next six years, compared with an average annual growth rate of 13.68 million tons in the past 10 years. The growth rate of grain production will slow down in the future.

It is worth mentioning that as early as 1986, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences conducted an in-depth study on the goal of grain production in China, and put forward the important judgment that "400 kg of grain per capita is indispensable". It is also considered that a country "basically cannot provide feed grain when the per capita grain share is less than 300 kg". Moreover, from the perspective of the world situation, after solving the problem of food and clothing, it is necessary to further increase food consumption and improve the level of nutrition. "if the food consumption structure is to be fundamentally improved, the per capita grain share must reach more than 700 kg. The food consumption structure must be greatly improved, and the per capita share of grain must reach at least 500 kg." In other words, the main sign of a country's lack of nutrition, surplus of food and clothing, and great improvement in food consumption is that the per capita grain share reaches the threshold of 300 kg, 400 kg and 500 kg respectively. In fact, at present, the per capita grain share of our country is reaching the threshold of nearly 500 kilograms. According to statistics, in 2014, China's per capita grain output has reached 443.8 kg, and the per capita grain consumption has exceeded 470kg. In addition, if we take into account the food consumption of more than 60 million net inbound tourists and business activities and more than 100 million pets raised by urban and rural residents, in fact, the total grain consumption demand in China is even higher than the above estimated amount.

From the perspective of grain supply, it is not easy for China to maintain the trend of increasing grain production for many years in a row.

First of all, the grain obtained by our country so far has been "11 consecutive increases", of which the substantial growth is only six years. Since the total grain output of our country fell to the bottom of the valley (430.7 million tons) in 2003, the state issued a series of policies to support agriculture, benefit agriculture and strengthen agriculture, and the grain output showed a good momentum of continuous growth. it was not until 2008 that the country's total grain output (528.71 million tons) exceeded the 1998 output level (512.3 million tons), and now it is stable at more than 600 million tons. According to objective analysis, the first five years of the "eleven consecutive increases" of grain belong to the restorative increase in grain production, while the last six years belong to the substantial growth brought about by the comprehensive effects of many factors, such as policy, science and technology, and investment.

Secondly, the increase of total grain production in China is achieved through the increase of per unit yield and the expansion of sown area of grain crops. According to statistics, the sown area of grain in China reached 112.723 million hectares in 2014, a net increase of 13.313 million hectares over 2003. the proportion of grain sown area in the total sown area of crops increased from 65.2% in 2003 to 68.1% in 2014. the sown area of oil crops and cotton decreased correspondingly, and their proportion in the total sown area of crops decreased by 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively. In the increment of the increase in total grain production, the contribution share of the expansion of sown area is 32.7%, and the contribution share of per unit yield is 67.3%.

Third, due to the upgrading of consumption structure and changes in market grain prices, China's grain imports have increased synchronously. According to China's traditional grain definition and caliber, the total amount of grain imports in 2014 reached 100 million tons, including 71.4 million tons of soybeans and 19.52 million tons of grain; if 5.41 million tons of corn distiller's grains were included in the grain category as corn products, the amount of grain imports would be as high as 106 million tons. This shows that even if China's grain increases year after year, the situation of grain supply and demand in the "tight balance" has not fundamentally changed, and the grain demand has increased rigidly, which is directly related to the rapid increase in meat, egg and milk consumption and the substantial increase in feed grain consumption. According to statistics, from 2003 to 2014, China's meat output increased from 64.433 million tons to 87.067 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8%. Feed grain has replaced rations as the largest demand for grain.

In addition, with the increase in grain production and import, the scale of China's grain reserves has been expanding in recent years. It is reported that in 2014, the grain purchase volume of various grain enterprises in China exceeded 700 billion jin for the first time, with a total amount of 729.8 billion jin, an increase of 40.9 billion jin over the previous year, of which the lowest purchase price and temporary purchase and storage of grain were 247.8 billion jin, an increase of 81.4 billion jin over the previous year. At present, the ratio of grain inventory to consumption in China is much higher than the internationally recognized level of about 18% of the grain security line. In recent years, the degree of commercialization of grain in China has increased rapidly, the market supply is adequate, logistics is accelerated, online shopping is convenient, urban and rural household grain storage is greatly reduced, and buy as you eat. In addition, in order to increase grain income, the state supported the market acquisition, on the one hand, concentrated grain production and inventory distribution to the core producing areas, greatly increased the pressure on collection and storage in the main producing areas, and increased the financial burden on the expansion of policy-oriented grain inventories; on the other hand, it also made domestic grain prices high, and the grain reserves reduced by local reserves, social enterprises and urban and rural households were also transferred to the central reserve one after another. Maintaining such a large-scale national grain reserve supply has become a new trend to ensure the daily grain consumption of urban and rural residents in our country.

To sum up, in the long run, on the issue of grain supply, China can only and must adhere to the guiding principle of relying mainly on domestic production and properly adjusting the international market for a long time. While maintaining moderate grain imports, by 2020, domestic per capita grain consumption will be maintained at more than 500kg, the total grain output will need to increase to more than 641 million tons, and the grain self-sufficiency rate will be more than 90%. In order to meet the demand, and to maintain a huge scale of national grain reserves. This is the due meaning of the national food security strategy in the new period, "taking ourselves as the main body, based at home, ensuring production capacity, moderate import, and scientific and technological support".

It is worth warning that the continuous increase in grain production in China has also accumulated many problems, such as excessive input of factors, environmental degradation, and so on, and there have been many discussions and practices in society to relax grain production. If some people think that the current international supply and demand of agricultural products is relatively loose, we should reduce domestic grain production and encourage large imports of grain and other agricultural products, this understanding is one-sided harmful. In fact, in the food classification of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), grain is only miscellaneous grains such as rice, wheat, corn and sorghum, which are the basic food sources for people, while soybeans are oil crops, not as food. This is the main reason why China imported a large amount of soybeans, which did not cause tension in grain-deficient countries. At present, there are still more than 800 million hungry people in the world who lack food. the international trade volume of grain and corn is about 270 million tons and 100 million tons respectively, which is only 49% and 47% of China's total grain and corn output. China has the largest population food demand in the world, and a slight change in grain import volume may lead to fluctuations in international grain prices. In the future, there are still hundreds of millions of people in rural areas, and the development of grain production is still an important channel to solve rural employment and increase farmers' income.

From the point of view of the adjustment of planting structure, in recent years, the area of rice has been reduced from double cropping to single cropping in southern China, and the sown area of wheat has decreased in North China due to the treatment of groundwater funnel. The large growers and family farms that have sprung up in some places reduce or even give up growing grain in order to expand the scale of operation and transfer contracted land, resulting in a rise in production costs. Planting area is the basis of ensuring food output, and capacity construction is the core of ensuring food security. Under the guidance of the market, if the policy of agricultural transformation is not based on the premise of stabilizing grain area and strengthening grain production capacity, China's grain output is bound to shrink. After two bumper harvests in China, the imbalance between supply and demand caused by grain reduction after two bumper harvests has been a warning from the past. Under the influence of many unfavorable factors, such as the instability of planting area, the decline of investment, the impact of international low grain prices, and so on, we must face the new challenges and problems in the development of grain production in the future and take more effective measures to solve them.

First, we should steadily increase grain production capacity and earnestly strengthen the protection of cultivated land. In order to increase China's total grain output in the future, we must earnestly preserve grain arable land and grain sown area, improve soil fertility, improve technology, and increase per unit yield. It is estimated that from 2003 to 2014, China's grain yield per mu increased from 288.8 kg to 359kg, with an average annual increase of 6.4kg per mu. If the growth rate of per unit yield remains unchanged in the next six years, the per unit grain yield should reach 397.4 kg by 2020 in order to achieve the target of 641 million tons of grain output, but it is still necessary to maintain a grain sown area of 107.532 million hectares (1.613 billion mu), taking into account the factor of multiple cropping of grain. Grain arable land must be maintained at more than 1.2 billion mu. This requires keeping the red line of cultivated land and the bottom line of more than 1.6 billion mu of grain sown area, implementing the strictest cultivated land protection system, speeding up the delineation of permanent basic farmland, and ensuring that there is land to grow grain. In the process of industrialization and urbanization, the occupation and transfer of cultivated land is accelerated, and the balance between occupation and compensation of cultivated land must be achieved. It is also necessary to ensure that the area, quality and use of cultivated land are not reduced, and the national standards for the quality of cultivated land are studied and formulated as soon as possible. We will improve the compensation mechanism for cultivated land protection and implement actions to protect and improve the quality of cultivated land.

Second, it is necessary to enhance the grain output capacity and speed up the construction of high-standard farmland. What is a high standard of farmland? High-standard farmland is that the soil has good performance, irrigation and drainage, agricultural machinery can get in and out, and its land scale and construction requirements can adapt to the specialized operation of mechanization. The comprehensive study shows that by 2020, 800 million mu of high-standard farmland should be built in China, including high-yield fields and middle-yield fields, and their output targets should reach about 500 kg per mu and 450 kg per mu respectively. Different output grades and investment standards and construction requirements should be set in arid, semi-arid and humid areas; in terms of plot scale, the minimum plot should be no less than 10 mu in the south and no less than 30 mu in the north. The guarantee rate of farmland irrigation is more than 90%. The work promotion should be led by the local agricultural department, integrate the relevant capital investment, and concentrate on the construction of land leveling, irrigation and water conservancy, soil improvement, machine ploughing roads and supporting agricultural network and forest network. Through the transformation of medium-and low-yield fields, improve agricultural production conditions, enhance agricultural output capacity and the ability to resist natural disasters. It can be said that high-standard farmland is the most valuable and largest excellent asset in China's agricultural and rural areas, and it is the foundation to ensure that people have no worries about food and clothing.

Third, it is necessary to strengthen grain production and supply and solidly promote the construction of grain production bases. The grain production base is the region with the strongest grain production capacity and the most concentrated output in our country. These places can not only meet the grain self-sufficiency in the region, but also transfer a large amount of commercial grain for export every year. It plays an important role in China's grain production. It is estimated that in 2013, the proportion of the country's major grain-producing areas in the country's total grain production increased from 71% to 76%, and the share of grain production in the major areas accounted for 88.7% of the country's total grain production. To this end, it is necessary to further give full play to the comparative advantages of major grain producing areas, explore the establishment of functional areas for grain production in conjunction with the delineation of permanent basic farmland, and give priority to major rice and wheat producing areas such as the Northeast, Huang-Huai-Hai, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. build a number of high-quality and efficient grain production bases, implement the production capacity of food rations on the land, and implement high quality and high prices. Through the activity of creating high yield of grain, popularize the green mode of increasing production, and achieve balanced production in a large area. Guide farmers to innovate and start businesses, and share the value-added benefits of storage, transportation, processing and marketing in the development of the whole grain industry chain. We will improve the interest compensation mechanism for the major grain producing areas, and the state's policies, measures and project inputs to support grain production should be tilted to the main grain producing areas, so that farmers will not suffer losses in growing grain; through financial transfer, we will increase the rewards and subsidies to the major grain producing areas, ensure that their per capita financial level gradually reaches the average level of the whole country and the whole province, and make local grain production dynamic.