The purchase volume of early indica rice may decline this year.

Due to the continuous bumper harvest and the impact of imported rice, the domestic early indica rice market has been weak in recent years, and the market capacity is relatively small, so the trend of centralized rotation of grain reserves in the first half of the year is even weaker.

This year, the opening price of new early rice is lower than the minimum purchase price. At the end of July, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Hubei provinces successively launched market-supporting acquisitions, about a week later than last year. This is also the lowest purchase price plan for early indica rice launched in China for three consecutive years.

The domestic market is stable.

With the start of the minimum purchase price plan, the domestic early indica rice purchase market has gradually warmed up, has basically stabilized, and the purchase price basically fluctuates slightly around the lowest purchase price. In mid-August, the average purchase price of state-owned grain enterprises in Jiangxi Province was 135.1 yuan per 100 jin, which was basically the same as last week and slightly higher than the same period last year; the average purchase price of individual grain merchants was 128.8 yuan per 100 jin, up 0.70 yuan per 100 jin over last week and 0.1 yuan per 100 jin over the same period last year. The purchase price of early indica rice in Changsha City, Hunan Province is 135 yuan / 100 jin, which remains stable. The lowest purchase price of early indica rice in Wuhu City, Anhui Province is 135 yuan / 100 jin, and the market purchase price is 131-132 yuan / 100 jin, which is slightly higher than that in the previous period.

At present, the domestic economic trend is still at the bottom, commodity prices are low, price increases are small, coupled with the continued impact of imported rice, early indica rice market confidence is not yet stable. In addition to the state-owned enterprises replenishing the stock and supporting the market acquisition, the current purchasing enthusiasm of processing enterprises and traders is not high, and many enterprises purchase early indica rice to replenish the stock for state-owned enterprises. Although the country strongly supports the market, the upward power of early indica rice is insufficient in the short term, and it is expected that it will still be stable.

The overall progress of the acquisition is slightly slower.

Due to the weather, the harvest of early indica rice has been delayed this year, the listing is slightly later than last year, and the acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is not high, resulting in a slightly slow acquisition progress. According to statistics, as of August 10, various grain enterprises in eight major producing areas, including Jiangxi and Hunan, had purchased 2.34 million tons of new early indica rice, a decrease of 350000 tons over the same period last year. Among them, the share of state-owned enterprises in total acquisitions is higher than that of the same period last year, indicating that state-owned enterprise acquisitions are still the mainstream.

The purchase volume of early rice in the market has decreased compared with the same period last year, and its share in the total purchase is also lower than that in the same period last year. As of August 16, large-scale grain enterprises in Anqing City, Anhui Province had purchased a total of 2915 tons of early indica rice produced in 2015, a decrease of 5810 tons or 67 percent over the same period last year. According to the statistics of the Hunan Provincial Grain Bureau, as of August 14, the province had purchased a total of 690000 tons of early indica rice this year, of which 505000 tons were purchased at the lowest price.

The purchase volume of supporting the market may be lower than that of the previous year.

The purchase volume of early indica rice in 2014 was 4.19 million tons, down from 5.67 million tons in 2013. Although the start-up time of early indica rice market purchase this year is basically the same as that of last year (slightly later in Hubei), due to a variety of factors, it is expected that the purchase volume of early indica rice market will continue to decrease this year.

The yield of early indica rice decreased in the main producing areas. As the comparative benefit of early indica rice planting is relatively low, it is difficult for farmers to further improve their production enthusiasm, and it is difficult to increase the planting area. Affected by the continuous overcast and rainy weather in the later stage, some of the main producing areas were greatly affected, and the unit yield of early indica rice was affected to a certain extent. The National Grain and Oil Information Center estimates that in 2015, the sown area of early indica rice in China was 5.79 million hectares and the yield was 34.08 million tons, which was basically the same as the previous year. Among the major producing areas, due to adverse weather during the main crop growing season in Jiangxi, the output of early rice is expected to be 7.91 million tons, about 300000 tons lower than last year.

The quality of early indica rice decreased. The quality of the early indica rice purchased and stored in the supporting market must meet the third-class standard of the national standard. That is, the impurity is less than 1%, the moisture content is less than 13.5%, the roughness rate is 75% to 77% (including 75%, excluding 77%), and the head rice rate is 44% to 47% (including 44%, excluding 47%). On the other hand, there are more low temperature, overcast and rainy days during the growth of early rice in Jiangxi and other main producing areas, resulting in more mud valleys, bud valleys and less full grains than in previous years. Therefore, some early indica rice cannot be acquired because its quality does not meet the requirements of market support.

The demand for local reserves has increased. This year is the first year for the state to put forward the provincial governor responsibility system for food security. In order to implement this new grain work policy, all provinces and cities have put forward plans to increase the scale of local reserves while doing a good job in grain production. Due to the good storage performance of early indica rice, it is still favored by the collection and storage enterprises, and it is expected that the reserves will increase at the level of last year, so the rotation volume will also increase this year. As the overall scale of early indica rice is small, the increase in the number of local reserves will inevitably lead to a decrease in the purchase of early indica rice in the supporting market.

The proportion of high-quality early indica rice increased. Our government has been vigorously promoting the production of high-quality rice. With the continuous promotion of high-quality rice and the progress of science and technology, and the relatively good planting benefit of high-quality rice itself, the yield of high-quality rice is increasing year by year.

A major factor in the high purchase volume of early indica rice in 2013 was that farmers were bearish on the market and sold high-quality early indica rice to the state at market-supporting prices. With the restoration of market confidence, the value of high-quality rice has been recognized again, and the purchase price is generally higher than that of ordinary rice, and the prices of many high-quality early indica rice varieties are also higher than the market price. As a result, high-quality early indica rice varieties were basically sold at market prices in 2014, making the purchase volume of early indica rice in the previous year much less than that in 2013. It is expected that high-quality early indica rice farmers will still give priority to market sales this year, so it will be difficult to increase the purchase volume of early indica rice in the market this year.

The purchase network of early indica rice is less than that of the previous year. This year's early indica rice market purchase is the same as the previous wheat market purchase, the implementation of "one main body, four common". According to the principle of "conducive to the protection of farmers' interests, food security storage, supervision, and sales", at the initial stage, 1011 entrusted storage sites for early indica rice were arranged in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei provinces, compared with 1471 in the same period last year. The number of entrusted storage sites is more than that of the same period last year, which will not only bring some inconvenience to farmers to sell grain in the market, but also affect the purchase of early indica rice in the market to a certain extent.