The threat of bird flu rises again in summer, and the share prices of vaccine companies increase even more.

Last weekend, rumors about the threat of the bird flu epidemic in the breeding market sounded again: according to some media reports, Fogang County, Qingyuan City, recently reported a highly pathogenic bird flu epidemic of H5N6 subtype; all 38110 birds from 13 bird farms in the epidemic area were culled; respiratory experts even believed that this epidemic must be vigilant.

At present, the epidemic occurred in summer and has not been further expanded, and its influence on the meat market and aquaculture enterprises is focused on the short term. Compared with historical stock price changes, it is easier for more than a dozen bird flu vaccine companies to gain a substantial upward momentum in stock prices from sudden events, while listed companies such as probiotics shares and Shengnong Development account for a relatively large number of listed companies. later performance and stock prices may be affected to a certain extent.

Impact 1: limit the upward trend of chicken prices

For this H5N6 bird flu epidemic, Guangzhou Daily reporter interviewed many professionals, thinking that it will suppress and restrict the current upward trend of national chicken prices, or peak in stages, but increase the substitutability of pork, so that pork prices may rebound again.

Compared with the bird flu outbreaks in previous years, the epidemic described by relevant enterprises culled more than 38000 birds, which is not yet on a very large scale. Judging from the historical epidemic situation in the past, any epidemic with a scale of more than 100000 animals will cause a drop in chicken prices by 10% to 30%. If there is only a scale of less than 10, 000, the price of chicken will generally be hit by less than 5%. It doesn't change much; and the scale of this epidemic is exactly between the two.

Chicken prices have rebounded sharply since July. According to statistics by Xinmu net and other institutions, the average price of chicken (wholesale) across the country has rebounded by 31% in one and a half months, which is relatively fast. It has risen and declined in the past three trading days, and there is already a demand for rising and falling on the technical side. Coupled with the threat of the bird flu epidemic, chicken prices may fall to a certain extent in the next two weeks.

In contrast, since August, pork prices have obviously gone up and down, with the national average pork price falling from a high of 9.2 yuan / jin to less than 9 yuan / jin. Due to the shrinking volume of pork market and tight supply, meat prices are still in a "bull market". The threat of bird flu can easily make pork a substitute, thus bottoming out and rebounding again.

Impact 2: the stock price of vaccine companies increases in volume.

As the current threat of bird flu has not expanded, for the A-share market, the positive impact on the share prices of vaccine companies should be far greater than the negative impact on the share prices of aquaculture companies. From historical experience, once there is an epidemic, the vast number of breeding enterprises, big or small, will purchase a large number of vaccines to "insure" their own poultry and promote the performance of vaccine listed companies.

Guangzhou Daily learned that the Ministry of Agriculture has approved a total of nine bird flu vaccine manufacturers, involving the production of more than a dozen A-share listed companies. Among them, bird flu vaccine is the main business, accounting for a relatively large number of enterprises, including Lianhuan Pharmaceutical, Hualan Biology, Tiantan Biology, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Pharmaceutical and sublimated Baike. In addition to the suspension of sublimation Baike, the stock prices of the other five companies have outperformed the market recently and are in a rising trend in volume.

By comparison, Hualan Biology has the best investment prospect, with half-year earnings per share as high as 0.53 yuan, net profit growing steadily, and has hot concepts such as "margin shareholding". The stock's share price rose sharply during the 2013-2014 bird flu epidemic (or rumors), and it is particularly noteworthy at a later stage. In addition, Lu Kang Pharmaceutical, North China Pharmaceutical, Harbin Pharmaceutical and other pharmaceutical companies have also participated in the research and development of bird flu vaccine, which will also be positively affected.

Impact 3: aquaculture enterprises are vulnerable to adverse effects.

Compared with vaccine companies, the stock prices of listed aquaculture companies have been depressed recently. The threat of bird flu is easy to have an adverse impact on stock prices for enterprises with large scale of chicken business or enterprises in the southern region. For example, Yisheng shares, whose chicken business accounts for about 160% of the pig business, is more vulnerable to impact; another example is Eagle farming and Animal Husbandry, Shengnong Development, whose chicken business is larger and is also in or affected enterprises. especially when its stock price is in the doldrums as a whole, it is easy to be "worse".

In contrast, the business of Muyuan shares is basically only related to "pigs". Luo Niushan's business is scattered in various industries, so its future performance is not vulnerable to the threat of bird flu.

In addition, as bird flu is a sudden event and has not caused "human infection" for the time being, the annual performance of listed companies is limited by similar events. At present, the influence of hot events such as merger and reorganization, equity participation finance and the reform of state-owned enterprises on the performance and stock prices of similar listed companies is still greater than that of bird flu.