Cucumber 2016 Market Analysis and 2017 Market Forecast

Cucumber, also known as cucumber in the south, is one of the important varieties of vegetable consumption in China. In 2015, the planting area of the whole country was 18.87 million mu, and the output reached 59.38 million tons, accounting for 5.8% and 7.8% of the total vegetables respectively. Cucumber planting area is widely distributed, the main production areas are in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Liaoning and other northern provinces, and Sichuan, Hunan and Hubei are more planted in southern provinces; planting methods include facilities and open fields. Due to the advantages of greenhouse in temperature and humidity control, pest prevention and planting management, the yield level is obviously higher than that of open fields. Cucumber demand is dominated by domestic consumption, export proportion is very low, listing has obvious seasonal characteristics, April to August every year is the peak of listing, accounting for about 70% of the total annual listing volume. In 2016, the planting area of cucumber in China expanded, the output increased steadily, the market price rose slightly year-on-year, the domestic consumption continued to increase, and the export declined. It is expected that cucumber production and supply will remain basically stable in 2017, domestic consumption may continue to increase steadily, exports are expected to rebound, and market prices may rise steadily. Cucumber growers should pay close attention to weather changes and price trends, prevent natural disasters and reasonably arrange listing rhythm, and competent departments should strengthen information services to guide production and operation entities to reduce risks.

I. Analysis of market supply and demand situation in 2016

In 2016, the planting scale of cucumber nationwide expanded, production and consumption showed a steady and slightly increasing trend, exports declined, market supply and demand were generally stable, market prices rose slightly, and monthly fluctuations intensified.

(i) Expansion of planting scale and steady increase in yield

In 2015, cucumber planting scale and market price "double increase" increased the production efficiency of growers and increased planting enthusiasm. In 2016, cucumber planting area expanded to 19.34 million mu, up 2.5% year-on-year. In 2016, under the influence of adverse weather such as low temperature and cold wave, cucumber yield decreased by 0.7% year-on-year to 3123 kg/mu, but driven by the growth of planting area, the total yield increased slightly by 1.7% to 60.41 million tons.

(ii) Demand remains strong and consumption increases steadily

Cucumber short-term consumption demand is mainly affected by price, quality safety events and other factors. In 2016, although the wholesale price of cucumber rose slightly overall, it fell significantly year-on-year in the most concentrated listing season from April to August; in terms of quality and safety, although the "magic potion" incident of cucumber in Shandong Zibo spread online in April, it was quickly refuted by relevant departments, which basically did not have a major negative impact on the overall consumption of cucumber. It is estimated that cucumber consumption increased steadily in 2016, with a total volume of 47.08 million tons, up 1.8% year-on-year.

(III) Exports decline, losses are still at a high level

China has almost no cucumber imports, exports mainly include frozen fresh cucumber and cucumber slices, vinegar or acetic acid production or preservation of cucumber, pickled cucumber or salted cucumber and other types, export countries or regions include Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. According to the data of Customs Information Network, from January to November 2016, the export volume of cucumber in China was 60,000 tons, down 10% year-on-year, and it is estimated that the annual export volume is about 70,000 tons. Compared with leaf vegetables, cucumber loss is relatively low, especially in the transportation process, and more losses occur in picking and marketing. In 2016, the comprehensive loss rate of production, picking, transportation, processing and sales was about 22%, which was still at a high level.

(IV) Wholesale prices rose slightly and fluctuated more

Under the relatively stable overall trend of domestic production and consumption, the cucumber market in 2016 generally operated smoothly, with an annual average price of 3.52 yuan/kg, up 2.8% year-on-year, the smallest fluctuation since 2010. Supply changes caused by weather factors such as low temperature and cold wave in a wide range last winter and spring, rainstorm and flood in some main production areas in the south from July to September and warmer temperature in the main production areas in the north in the fourth quarter lead to significant monthly price differences. The maximum monthly price difference in the year widened from 3.82 yuan/kg in 2015 to 5.51 yuan/kg, expanding by 44.2%, reaching the maximum value since 2009.

II. Expected market trends in 2017

In 2017, cucumber production is expected to remain relatively stable, consumption will continue to increase, exports are expected to rebound, loss rate will decline, average monthly price of cucumber may show a steady upward trend, monthly changes are still "V" type characteristics, the beginning of the year, the end is still the price high.

(i) The planting area decreased slightly and the yield remained relatively stable.

Although cucumber prices generally showed an upward trend in 2016, price fluctuations intensified, and prices fell significantly during the concentrated listing period in the second quarter, and in the fourth quarter there was a loose supply and demand trend, especially in some areas of southern winter melon and vegetable provinces. It is estimated that the cucumber planting area in 2017 will be 19.03 million mu, down 1.6% from 2016; under the effect of variety improvement and management improvement, the cucumber yield has generally increased in recent years, and it is expected that the upward trend in 2017 will remain unchanged, up 1.1% year-on-year; cucumber yield will reach 60.1 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year, and the overall situation will remain relatively stable, and the market supply is guaranteed.

(ii) Population and demand growth remain unchanged, while consumption continues to increase

With the improvement of dietary structure, the overall trend of vegetable consumption growth of residents will not change. Cucumber, as an important road vegetable variety, is deeply loved by residents. In addition, the awareness of beauty, heat and detoxification in recent years has been improved, so cucumber consumption will continue to increase. In terms of population, most authoritative studies show that China's population will reach its peak around 2030, and the increase trend in previous years will remain unchanged. Under the combined effect of population and demand increase, cucumber consumption is expected to increase steadily in 2017, with domestic consumption reaching 47.4 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year.

(III) Exports are expected to rebound and loss rates decline

In terms of exports, driven by the overall decline in commodity imports and exports, cucumber exports declined in 2016. It is expected that with the overall recovery of the economic situation, exports are expected to rebound to about 8 tons next year. On the basis of the research on the main producing areas and circulation markets, it is estimated that the proportion of cucumber loss in total output will decrease slightly to about 21% in 2017, reaching 12.62 million tons.

(IV) Wholesale prices may rise steadily, and the "V"-shaped characteristics remain.

In recent years, cucumber wholesale prices have basically shown an annual trend of ten levels, but the price bottom in 2016 appeared a little "broken", but in the external economic environment to maintain stability, planting costs, circulation costs and demand driven, the overall upward trend of prices has not changed. Under normal conditions in 2017, cucumber production will decrease slightly year-on-year, while domestic consumption demand will increase steadily. In addition, export rebound, cucumber prices are expected to rise steadily next year. Specifically, the average wholesale price will be in the range of 3.6-3.9 yuan per kilogram; monthly is still "V" type characteristics, driven by "two sections" consumption demand, January to February prices are still relatively high at the beginning of the year, but it is expected to fall year-on-year; the second quarter is the price trough period, but the bottom will rise; the end-of-year tail phenomenon is still prominent, or adult price highs.

III. Production and operation suggestions

Based on the above analysis, the overall supply and demand of cucumber market in 2017 remained relatively stable, and the price rose steadily, which was conducive to the improvement of growers 'income. However, the production risks brought by some uncertain factors and the market risks shown in recent years need to be paid attention to by growers and local management departments.

First, growers should pay close attention to the production risks caused by natural disasters. In recent years, although China has taken measures to reduce the impact of natural disasters on agricultural production by vigorously promoting infrastructure construction and strengthening disaster forecasting and prevention guidance, the characteristics of agriculture in practice have not been fundamentally changed. In 2016, the abnormal weather changes from mid-late January to early February and after October and the haze weather after winter in the north had a significant impact on the normal production rhythm, indicating that cucumber production was still highly dependent on weather. In 2017, cucumber growers should pay close attention to weather changes and prevent production risks caused by natural disasters such as low temperature, cold wave and haze in advance.

Second, growers should pay attention to the market risks brought about by the aggravation of price fluctuations. In recent years, cucumber prices have basically shown obvious "V"-shaped changes during the year. Although the average price rose slightly in 2016, the fluctuation was obviously intensified. Wholesale market prices rose 25.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, fell sharply in the second quarter, down 12.8% year-on-year, and fell 15.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter after relatively stable in the third quarter; monthly average prices hit their highest and lowest since 2013 in February and June, respectively, and the monthly spread of 5.5 yuan/kg hit its highest since 2009. The volatility intensifies, resulting in significant differences in returns due to different listing seasons. Growers should try their best to understand and grasp the price trend changes, plan planting batches in advance, reasonably arrange the listing rhythm, promote the "off-peak listing" of products, and avoid the market risks caused thereby.

Third, local departments should strengthen information services and guide the main body to make scientific decisions. Local departments can carry out short-term, medium-term and long-term weather forecast for cucumber planting, especially natural disaster forecast such as low temperature, rain and snow, cold wave, etc., through cooperation with meteorological departments, in the growing season of local areas and other major producing areas; strengthen the collection and service of local market information and market information of other major producing areas in China, especially to form information products with guiding significance integrating knowledge added value; Through the construction of agricultural information website, mobile phone short message, APP, radio, television and other information push methods, guide farmers in scale adjustment, market pricing, disaster prevention and other aspects of correct decision-making.