Market Analysis of eggplant in 2016 and Market Forecast in 2017

Eggplant is an important vegetable for daily consumption of Chinese residents. In 2015, China's eggplant planting area of 12.09 million mu, output of 30.68 million tons, accounting for 3.7% and 3.9% of the total vegetable planting area and total output respectively. Eggplant cultivation is widely distributed in China, with Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other provinces as the main producing areas. Under natural conditions, planting can only be carried out in the frost-free period in northern China, and can be planted in the frost-free area to the south of the Yangtze River. With the development of facility production, eggplant in China has achieved annual supply, and the production can be divided into winter and spring, autumn and winter. The former is usually sown from October to November and listed in April, while the latter is usually sowed in June and listed in October. The planting area of eggplant in China expanded in 2016 compared with the same period last year. Affected by the cold wave at the beginning of the year, continuous summer precipitation and haze weather, the level of per unit yield decreased slightly, the total output increased slightly, the consumption was relatively stable, and the price increased significantly compared with the same period last year, reaching the highest level since 2009. It is expected that the planting area of eggplant will continue to grow in 2017, the level of per unit yield will increase slightly, the total output will further increase, the consumption will increase steadily, and the price will decline steadily compared with the same period last year. It is suggested that producers should pay close attention to weather changes to prevent heavy losses caused by severe cold injury, and effectively strengthen field management to avoid serious impact on production due to diseases and insect pests.

I. Analysis of the market supply and demand situation in 2016

(1) the per unit yield decreased slightly and the total output increased slightly

Affected by the cold wave weather, there was a large area of cooling in the north and south of China at the beginning of 2016, and rain and snow occurred in many provinces in the south, which adversely affected the growth of eggplant, resulting in great losses in open field production in Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and other places. The continuous precipitation in the Yangtze River basin in summer has caused certain losses to the corresponding areas. Typhoon and haze weather also affected eggplant production in some areas. It is estimated that the per unit yield of eggplant in China decreased slightly in 2016, with an average yield of 2498 kg per mu, a decrease of 1.6% compared with the same period last year.

In recent years, the planting scale of eggplant in China has maintained overall growth, with the planting area increasing from 11.24 million mu in 2010 to 12.09 million mu in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%. With the continuous progress of China's agricultural supply-side structural reform, the effects of removing stocks, reducing costs and making up for deficiencies in agriculture have begun to appear, the price formation mechanism of crops such as corn has been gradually straightened out, and the comparative benefits of planting vegetables such as eggplant have been prominent. further drive the expansion of planting area in some areas. Eggplant cultivation in China continued to grow in 2016, with an estimated planting area of 12.71 million mu, an increase of 5.1%. Affected by the expansion of the area and the decrease in yield per unit area, the total output of eggplant increased by 3.4% to 31.73 million tons in 2016.

Planting area, yield and per Unit yield of eggplant from 2010 to 2015

(2) the consumer demand is relatively stable and the loss is relatively large

As a common main road dish, eggplant has always been an important vegetable variety for daily consumption of urban and rural residents in China, and the consumption demand is relatively stable. With the continuous improvement of income level and the continuous adjustment of dietary structure, the overall consumption demand of eggplant shows a small growth trend. China's eggplant consumption reached 24.43 million tons in 2016. As it is easy to deteriorate in picking, screening, transportation and trading, the loss of eggplant is relatively large. It is estimated that eggplant consumption in 2016 was 7.3 million tons, accounting for about 23.0% of the total production. In addition, in 2016, China's total import and export of eggplant was about 7000 tons, accounting for about 0.02 percent of the total output, accounting for a very limited proportion.

(3) prices have risen significantly compared with the same period last year, and fluctuations have intensified during the year

Affected by the seasonal law of planting and listing, the price of eggplant generally fluctuates in "V" shape during the year. Eggplant prices rose sharply at the beginning of 2016, driving up the overall price level significantly, with the annual average wholesale price reaching 3.85 yuan per kilogram, the highest since 2009 and up 7.0% from the same period last year. In 2016, the monthly price range of eggplant reached 5.1 yuan per kilogram, and the standard deviation reached 1.7 yuan per kilogram, the highest in the past five years.

Judging from the monthly trend in 2016: affected by the cold weather, the wholesale price of eggplant rose by more than 10% from January to March compared with the same period last year. In February, the wholesale price exceeded 7 yuan per kilogram, the highest since 2009, and the price increase in March reached 36.7% compared with the same period last year. From April to August, as the temperature warmed up, the number of eggplant on the market increased significantly, and the market price fell rapidly, falling year-on-year, with the largest year-on-year decline of 15.8% in June. After September-November, the weather turned cold, open field production decreased, some northern production areas transferred to facility production, eggplant supply gradually decreased, prices turned to rise, and continued to rise compared with the same period last year.

II. Expected market trend in 2017

(1) the total output will continue to increase, and there will be a considerable increase in output at the beginning of the year.

As of December, autumn and winter eggplant has been on the market, generally sustainable listing until the Spring Festival, some facilities can continue to grow eggplant on the market until June. According to the data of information monitoring sites in 580 key counties of vegetable production, the field area of eggplant was 26000 mu in November 2016, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year, which is at a high level in the past five years. If the weather conditions are good, eggplant production is expected to increase by 5-10% in early 2017 compared with the same period last year, a large increase over the same period in previous years. As the price of eggplant remained low in the summer of 2016, the income from planting eggplant decreased in winter and spring that year, affecting the willingness to plant eggplant in winter and spring in 2017. It is expected that after May, the planting area and output of eggplant will be the same or slightly reduced compared with the same period last year. Overall, total eggplant production will increase slightly by 2.5 per cent in 2017 and is expected to reach 32.52 million tons.

(2) consumption has increased steadily, while consumption has decreased slightly

The slow growth of population, the continuous promotion of urbanization and the continuous improvement of residents' income level play a positive role in the growth of eggplant consumption. In recent years, the awareness of health care among urban and rural residents has been continuously enhanced, and food consumption has begun to change from "eating well" to "eating healthily." the nutritional and medicinal values of eggplant, such as lowering blood pressure, lowering cholesterol, and anti-aging, have been paid more and more attention, which will further promote the steady growth of consumer demand. It is estimated that the eggplant consumption of urban and rural residents in China will reach 25.25 million tons in 2017, an increase of 3.3%. With the construction of vegetable storage and fresh-keeping facilities and the improvement of transportation and logistics conditions, the loss rate of eggplant will gradually decrease. It is estimated that eggplant loss will be reduced to 7.27 million tons in 2017, about 30, 000 tons less than in 2016, and the proportion of eggplant loss to total production will be reduced by 0.7%.

(3) prices for the whole year have declined steadily from the same period last year, and prices may have dropped significantly from January to April compared with the same period last year.

In 2017, eggplant production and supply will increase slightly, consumer demand will increase steadily, and the average wholesale price for the whole year is expected to decline steadily, which will remain between 3.5 yuan and 3.8 yuan per kilogram. Price fluctuations will remain V-shaped during the year, and the peak of eggplant prices may be advanced to January as the Spring Festival in 2017 is earlier than in previous years.

Considering that eggplant production and supply will increase significantly in early 2017 compared with the same period last year, eggplant prices are expected to fall significantly from January to April 2017, by more than 10%; after eggplant is basically withdrawn from the market in autumn and winter in May, eggplant production and supply will be the same or slightly reduced compared with the same period last year, and the price is expected to be basically the same as that in the same period in 2016. Due to the obvious price drop at the beginning of the year, the monthly price fluctuation of eggplant is expected to narrow in 2017.

III. Suggestions on production and operation

First, pay close attention to weather changes to prevent heavy losses caused by severe cold. Low temperature freezing injury has a great impact on eggplant planting, which may not only cause a substantial reduction in output, but also cause delay in listing time, disrupt the market rhythm and cause sharp price fluctuations. In 2016, due to surprise and lack of preparation, the cold wave weather brought serious losses to eggplant production in many places. According to the monitoring of the National Marine Environment Forecast Center, the sea surface temperature in the Middle East and Pacific Ocean quickly reversed in July 2016, entering La Nina state, and may develop into La Nina event, which greatly increases the probability of cold winter at the end of the year and the beginning of the year in China. It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the weather changes in winter and spring, repair and maintain production facilities in advance, make a good reserve of cold protection materials such as anti-cold film and grass seeds, and timely spray medicament to prevent disease, replenish light and increase temperature in case of rain and snow freezing weather, so as to avoid serious losses caused by low temperature and freezing damage.

The second is to strengthen field management and scientifically prevent common diseases and insect pests. Eggplant planting is prone to diseases and insect pests, and field management is very important to the output level. In recent years, diseases and insect pests such as cotton blight, Verticillium wilt, gray mold, whitefly, aphids and red spiders occur from time to time, often with the characteristics of rapid development and obvious losses, which adversely affect production. It is suggested that producers should strengthen field management in the process of planting, actively carry out crop rotation in perennial planting plots, disinfect seeds and seedbeds in time before planting, adopt rootstock grafting to raise seedlings, apply sufficient base fertilizer, apply fertilizer in time, pay attention to drainage, clean up fallen leaves of weeds in time, add insect control nets, and reduce insect sources. If you encounter diseases and insect pests, you should prescribe the right medicine to the case, use medicine scientifically and apply medicine accurately to avoid great losses caused by diseases and insect pests.