What will be the trend of corn prices in February 2017? What are the factors that affect the market?
At present, peasant friends are still celebrating the Spring Festival. Corn prices fell all the way down a year ago and rebounded slightly near the Spring Festival. So what will happen to prices in February 2017?
First, the main factors that affect the market:
1. Time factor
The fifteenth day of the first lunar month is about the 10th of February. There is less time to operate in February and time is tight.
2. Policy factors
Pay attention to the opening and storage efforts of countries in Northeast China after the Spring Festival. If the monthly storage exceeds 15 million tons, it will support corn prices. If it is less than 10 million tons, corn prices will be under pressure.
3. As of January 15, three provinces and one region in Northeast China had purchased a total of 52.5 million tons of corn, including 7.19 million tons in Inner Mongolia, 11.26 million tons in Liaoning, 13.26 million tons in Jilin and 20.79 million tons in Heilongjiang. Farmers still have about 50 million tons of corn in their hands, and there is a great pressure on stocks.
4, feed enterprises before the year, generally will prepare about a month, will not immediately after the festival large-scale procurement, the corn market squeeze.
5. Corn deep processing enterprises have high profits and high operating rate, focusing on starch factories in Shandong and alcohol factories. This year, deep processing enterprises have high profit points and give little support to corn prices.
6, logistics bottleneck, during the Spring Festival travel period, whether the logistics will be further tense, the railway outage, the reduction of automobile transport, will further lead to a rise in logistics costs.
Second, corn price judgment:
1. Northeast China:
The price of corn in Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning is 0.64, 0.68, 0.65 and 0.73 yuan respectively (dry corn, water 14 as the basis, second-class grain standard). After the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, the price will rise slightly, but the space will not be too big. Farmers who have grain in their hands should pay attention to the rhythm of shipping.
2. Shandong area:
In the case of deep processing enterprises, it is expected that the starch factory will hover between 1560 and 1660. The deep processing purchase price of northeast dried corn is on the low side, while the price of naturally dried corn is on the high side. The purchase price of feed enterprises in Shandong will be between 1680 and 1750.
3. North-South ports:
The purchase price of the northern port is 1450Mui 1500 yuan / ton, the closing price is 1520 yuan / ton, the acquisition is not active, the market price can be released, and the Guangdong port shipping price is 1620 yuan / ton, the shipping price is not active.
Comprehensive judgment, there will be no room for large fluctuations in the market, there will be a small rise in the northeast, high-quality corn in Shandong, natural drying corn shortage.
- Prev
Forecast when corn prices are most likely to rise in 2017?
According to Brick's forecast, the corn output of the three provinces and one region in Northeast China in 2016 will be 1.2-130 million tons, and the total amount of corn purchased will be about 6000-70 million tons. Judging from the overall progress of grain sales, the progress of corn acquisition will begin to slow down after the year, but considering that around March after the beginning of the year, the progress of corn acquisition will begin to slow down.
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