The Market situation of Pea in 2016 and its Prospect in 2017

In order to understand the current situation of China's pea market in 2016 and make a correct prediction of the situation in 2017, starting from November 1, 2016, the research group conducted interviews and telephone surveys on growers, intermediate traders, downstream processing enterprises and other employment groups, totaling nearly 2 months, with more than 100 survey samples from different groups.

The Market situation of Pea in 2016 and its Prospect in 2017

Dried peas are mainly distributed in the central and northwest regions, and the main producing areas are Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and other provinces. In 2016, the area was 1.46 million mu, down 1.25% from the previous year, and the output was 210000 tons, a decrease of 4.65%. Due to the low income of pea, the low enthusiasm of farmers and the decline of planting area year by year, it is expected that the planting area of pea will still decrease in 2017.

I. characteristics of market operation in 2016

The total supply of peas in China every year consists of two parts, namely, domestic output and import. In the past two years, under the influence of imported peas, the overall transaction of domestic peas is not prosperous, and pea processors mostly use imported peas, resulting in a continuous decline in the area and output of domestic peas.

Both planting scale and yield have declined.

In the past three years, the planting area of peas in China has declined year by year, with an area of 1.46 million mu in 2016, down 1.25% from the previous year, and the output was 210000 tons, a decrease of 4.65%. Because the income of pea is low, the enthusiasm of farmers is not high, and the planting area decreases year by year.

Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai are the three major pea producing areas in China. In 2016, the planting area of Gansu Province was 290000 mu, an increase of 16.27%, with a total output of 41000 tons, an increase of 10.81% over the same period last year, and a unit output of 280jin / mu, a year-on-year decrease of 3.45%. The acreage of Qinghai Province is 230000 mu, a decrease of 12.36%. The output was 35000 tons, down 20.45% from the same period last year, and the unit yield was 300jin / mu, a decrease of 9.09%. The acreage in Ningxia dropped to 340000 mu, a decrease of 9.16%, and the output was 47000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.54%. The unit yield was 280jin / mu, a decrease of 9.68%.

Greater dependence on imports

Due to the low price of peas in the United States and Canada, China's imports of peas are increasing. In the past three years, China's import of peas has increased year by year. From January to October 2016, the import of peas was 807000 tons, and it is expected that the import of peas for the whole year will reach 920000 tons. China is the world's largest importer of peas, accounting for 24.81% of the world's total pea imports, followed by Pakistan and Italy. The export volume of peas from January to October 2016 was 912 tons, which had a limited impact on the domestic market.

The proportion of deep processing exports is large, and domestic sales are limited.

Pea fresh food is generally divided into seed with pod, non-seed with pod, pea grain. The industrial demand is dried peas, processed into pea starch and then made into vermicelli, instead of mung beans, to be fans. In addition, peas can be made into flour and noodles, but they taste mediocre. 80% of the pea protein produced in China is exported to the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries that have high requirements for food and health care. There are about 10% of pea protein sold in China, and the users are manufacturers of additives for nutrition and health care drugs.

The per unit yield has declined and the planting income has declined.

Peas are mainly planted in the central and western regions of China, with a unit yield of 300 jin / mu in normal years, while the average yield per mu is only 280 jin / mu this year. Gansu pea varieties include sesame pea, green pea and white pea. Because of the low price of white pea, the planting area has gradually decreased in the past two years, and the income is also decreasing. In 2016, due to the decline in yield, the planting income in Gansu Province was 378 yuan per mu, down 1.05% from the same period last year. Planting income in Ningxia was 344 yuan per mu in 2016, down 16.8% from the same period last year.

II. Industry prospects and policy recommendations in 2017

(1) production prospect: the planting intention of green peas is OK, while that of dried peas is weak.

In the past two years, due to the impact of imported peas, the demand for domestic peas has decreased year by year, while in the western producing areas, due to the high potato yield and corresponding subsidies, some farmers have changed to grow potatoes, and their planting enthusiasm has declined year by year. Some farmers choose to plant corn, lentils and broad beans. In general, the output and price of dried peas are much lower than those of green peas, and if compared with the income of fresh green peas, the yield of dried peas is only 30% of that of green peas. In terms of income, farmers are not keen on growing peas, and some areas intend to grow green peas, especially in the larger areas of some vegetable provinces, the proportion of fresh food has increased slightly in recent years. Plastic film mulching is listed in advance, for some pea growers, it is a main way to increase income. As the price of peas is not stable, farmers grow peas mostly in order to supplement other crops to delay farming or not to give up. If you simply grow peas, for the northeast region, there will be no other crops in a year, and the economic benefits of peas are very low, so it is not cost-effective. However, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places can continue to grow other crops that year after harvesting peas. In addition, in some areas where wheat can not be grown, consideration can be given to vegetable rotation without delaying the stubble.

(2) consumption outlook: the number of deep processing enterprises is limited, and the downstream demand is weak.

Domestic pea deep processing is mostly near Shandong, while pea planting is mostly in the northwest, coupled with the high freight cost, the enthusiasm of downstream processing plants to purchase domestic peas is not high. In the past two years, the overall demand of the starch industry is a slight downward trend, pea starch mainly downstream demand vermicelli processing. In recent years, due to cassava starch substitution, environmental protection, market environment and other factors, the profitability of deep processing manufacturers is general, the demand for deep processing of pea is reduced, and the demand of the overall industrial chain is weak.

(3) Price outlook: under the impact of imports, domestic peas have little room to rise.

The planting cost of Canada and the United States is low, and the planting area may continue to increase in 2017, and imports are expected to remain in a small upward channel in 2017, which will still bring some negative benefits to the domestic pea market. The weather conditions are still not optimistic in 2017, and the quality of domestic peas will still decline. In recent years, the income of pea is low, the enthusiasm of farmers is not high, some farmers choose to plant broad beans instead of peas, the demand for peas will still be reduced, the price of domestic peas is difficult to rise.

Policy suggestions: build deep processing enterprises in the producing area to reduce logistics and transportation costs

The establishment of agricultural products processing enterprises to build a new vegetable fresh-keeping warehouse, storage and circulation links, this way, the quality and output of peas are guaranteed to a certain extent. It is suggested that a deep processing production base should be established in the production area to meet the raw material purchasing needs of enterprises. The pea circulation channel is limited, the trade channel is not wide, and the variety is different, the enterprise purchase is limited. It is very difficult for eastern enterprises to purchase raw materials, and the circulation of producing areas and sales areas is not smooth. Some enterprises prefer to purchase imported beans to be produced by enterprises.

Third, risk tips

Weather factors are changeable, fresh food warehousing should be cautious. In terms of production, the yield of peas is low, the income of farmers is low, and it is difficult to increase the planting area by a large margin. Domestic deep processing enterprises arrange production plans reasonably to avoid the risk caused by fluctuations in raw material supply. Weather factors are uncertain in 2017, and pea cultivation and storage and transportation of fresh peas still face certain risks.