The Influence of Peasant Workers 'Citizenization on Food Supply and Demand in China

At present, China is in a period of transition from the middle to the later stage of industrialization and the acceleration of urbanization, which is facing the major task of ensuring national food security and effective supply of major agricultural products. Since 2004, China's grain production has made great achievements in "11 consecutive increases", but according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the self-sufficiency rate of grain, including soybeans, has dropped from 100% in 2003 to 91% in 2011, and the "tight balance" between supply and demand has become more prominent.

The citizenization of migrant workers is an important factor affecting food consumption. In the process of the transfer of rural labor force to cities and towns and citizenization, not only the status in the supply chain of food system has changed fundamentally, from food producers and suppliers to consumers and demanders, but also with the improvement of employment and income level in cities and towns, consumption habits and consumption patterns have undergone significant changes, and the quantity and structure of food consumption have changed accordingly. Therefore, at present, the number of migrant workers who have reached 263 million, especially the 163 million migrant workers who are equivalent to the combined population of Japan and Canada, is the biggest "variable" affecting China's food supply and demand. the impact of rural labor transfer and citizenization on food security must be deeply studied.

What is the impact of migrant workers' citizenization on food consumption?

From the perspective of the mode of rural labor transfer in China, the citizenization of migrant workers can be divided into two stages: urban employment and household registration transformation, and the impact mechanism of different stages on food consumption is also different. The first stage is the impact of food consumption changes on food security before and after migrant workers enter the city, which is mainly attributed to the changes in food consumption habits caused by regional movement, as well as the change from subsistence food consumption to commercial food consumption; the second stage is the impact of food consumption changes on food security before and after obtaining urban household registration, which is mainly attributed to the change of food consumption structure caused by social welfare changes brought about by urban household registration.

1. The impact of rural labor migration to cities on food consumption. In order to directly analyze the changes of food consumption of migrant workers after entering the city, the research group conducted a questionnaire survey on 744 farmers in 70 villages in Beijing, Jilin, Zhejiang and Chongqing in the summer of 2013. to understand the change range of migrant workers' subjective judgment and self-estimation of food consumption. The results show that part of the food consumption of migrant workers will increase after entering the city. First of all, in the grain category, the consumption of rice and other grains decreased significantly, but the consumption of flour and instant noodles increased. Among them, rice consumption decreased by 4%, other grain decreased by 14.4%, flour increased by 2.9%, and instant noodles increased by 24.4%. Secondly, the consumption of animal oil decreased significantly, while the consumption of vegetable oil increased. Animal oil consumption decreased by 41.6%, while vegetable oil consumption increased by 15.4%. Thirdly, the consumption of animal products and vegetables and fruits has increased in varying degrees, of which milk has the largest increase. Milk consumption will increase by 42.5% after migrant workers enter the city, and meat and egg consumption will increase by 14% and 12.7%, respectively.

two。 The impact of migrant workers settling in cities and towns on food consumption. Because it is difficult to grasp the food consumption data of the same migrant workers before and after obtaining urban household registration, the research group conducted a "counterfactual (Counter-factual) experiment" according to the urban household survey data of the Urban Survey team of the National Bureau of Statistics.

The results show that the consumption of all kinds of food of migrant workers has increased significantly after settling in cities and towns. First of all, the increase in consumption of rice, flour and edible oil is relatively small. Rice, flour and other grains will increase by 12.6%, 13.1% and 31.1%, and vegetable oil and animal oil will increase by 10% and 20.8%, respectively. Secondly, the increase in consumption of animal products, especially milk, is very obvious. After migrant workers obtained household registration in cities and towns, the consumption of meat and eggs increased by 26.8% and 16.7% respectively, and the consumption of milk increased by 35.3%. Thirdly the consumption of vegetables and fruits has also increased significantly. The per capita consumption of vegetables and fruits increased by 23.2%.

Considering that there will be great differences in food consumption habits among different income classes, the sample of migrant workers is further divided into five layers according to their per capita disposable income. the difference of food consumption before and after obtaining urban household registration was estimated and analyzed by tendency score matching method respectively. The results show that with the increase of income level, the consumption of rice may decrease, the consumption of flour and other grain will increase, and the demand of migrant workers for animal products will increase at all income levels. the change of income level has little impact on the consumption of general edible oil; the consumption demand of vegetables and fruits of migrant workers with different income levels will increase.

Generally speaking, in the whole process of citizenization of migrant workers, the per capita food consumption is increasing, but it shows obvious structural characteristics in different stages and different types of food. The foods that need to be focused in the first stage are milk, fruits and vegetables, vegetable oils and meat; in the second stage, the foods that need to be focused are milk, other grains, meat, vegetables and fruits. The two stages of citizenization of migrant workers are accompanied by the expansion of food demand, indicating that ensuring China's food security and the effective supply of major agricultural products are facing long-term challenges.

Why the citizenization of Peasant Workers affects Food consumption

The research group uses the multi-level mixed effect model (Multi? Levellinearmixedmodel), this paper analyzes the factors affecting the changes of food consumption of migrant workers before and after entering the city, and uses the multi-level mixed effect model to analyze the food changes of migrant workers before and after obtaining urban household registration.

The results show that the change of income is an important factor affecting the food consumption of migrant workers, whether before or after entering the city or before and after obtaining household registration. In practice, the employment and income stability of migrant workers is very poor, whenever macroeconomic fluctuations, migrant workers are the most vulnerable groups. The financial crisis in 2008 caused about 20 million migrant workers to return home. Therefore, migrant workers are sensitive groups of food safety, which should be regarded as the key goal and object of urban food security.

How to deal with the challenge of migrant workers' citizenization to food safety

1. Always regard the protection of food safety as an important part of the new urbanization strategy. In the process of citizenization of 263 million migrant workers, not only the demand for food will be increased before and after entering the city, but also the change of household registration will increase the demand for food. The two-stage increase of migrant workers' citizenization demand for food is rigid and irreversible, which will exert more and more pressure on food prices in urban areas. Once the increase in food prices greatly exceeds the increase in income, it may pose a threat to the food and clothing of low-income groups, and the resulting risks deserve great attention. Therefore, we should take the protection of food safety as the basis and foothold of the new urbanization strategy, adhere to the simultaneous promotion of urbanization and agricultural modernization, and consolidate the basic support of the new urbanization strategy.

two。 To build a supply system that adapts to the changes of food demand in the process of citizenization of migrant workers. From the point of view of ensuring food security, under the background of the integration of urban and rural areas, urban areas should further implement the "rice bag" governor responsibility system and the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system according to the changing characteristics of the food consumption structure of migrant workers at different stages of citizenization, strengthen and consolidate the "vegetable basket project" and the construction of food supply bases in urban areas, and improve the main food circulation and storage links. It is necessary to strengthen the effective supply of animal products, edible oils, vegetables and fruits, formulate emergency plans and relevant measures to effectively deal with rising prices, and bring them into the legal track in the form of local regulations.

3. Establish a food security mechanism for migrant workers at different stages of citizenization. For migrant workers who have just entered cities and towns, they need to pay attention to the effective supply and availability of food. We can consider setting up migrant workers' service centers to provide temporary accommodation for migrant workers who have not yet got a job. For migrant workers who have obtained urban household registration, they need to pay attention to the sustainable food access capacity of low-income people, and for families with difficulties, effective food security measures such as "meal vouchers" should be gradually established to ensure social stability in urban and rural areas.

4. We will improve and improve the system for investigating and monitoring the food consumption of migrant workers. Compared with the change of food demand caused by the increase of population and the upgrading of consumption structure, the impact of the change of food demand caused by the citizenization of migrant workers is equally significant, but it is less easy to observe and identify. From the point of view of ensuring agricultural industrial security, national food security, social security and political security, it is necessary to regularly monitor the food consumption structure and influencing factors of migrant workers in different stages. to grasp the new trends of the changes in the food consumption of migrant workers and provide a decision-making basis for the country to formulate targeted countermeasures.