It is difficult for the domestic soybean oil market to rebound.

Imported soybeans become sales protagonists

Since 1995, China began to import soybeans, the import volume has been increasing year by year, and China has become the world's number one soybean importer. It is understood that China imported 71.4 million tons of soybeans in 2014, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year. From January to July this year, China imported 44.66 million tons of soybeans, up 7.1% year-on-year. While imports continue to rise, soybean prices in the international market have continued to fall in recent years. Take August 25 Chicago futures exchange soybean transaction price as an example, compared with the same period in 2012 fell nearly 50%.

Obviously, in the context of cheap prices and strong demand, imported soybeans continue to flow into China and become the protagonist of the market.

However, the local domestic soybeans have been squeezed out of the market little by little, not only losing the right to speak of "being the master", but even the price has not improved.

Domestic soybean cultivation has decreased year after year

Because imported soybeans are cheap, edible oil enterprises with large consumption have abandoned domestic soybeans and switched to more affordable imported soybeans in order to reduce costs and occupy a place in the domestic edible oil market, which makes the sales of domestic soybeans shrink and become a true portrayal of domestic soybeans in recent years. In contrast, corn and rice have yielded better returns in recent years, so soybean farmers have abandoned soybean planting.

It is reported that Heilongjiang Province, as the main soybean producing area in China, reduced its planting area by half between 2005 and 2013. Soybean acreage nationwide is expected to decrease by 13.4% year-on-year this year.

Good news prompted prices to rebound

According to the monitoring data of Beijing Dadi Yuquan Road Grain and Oil Wholesale Market, although the planting area and output of domestic soybean have both declined, the wholesale price of domestic soybean has not increased due to the decrease of supply in recent four years, basically adjusted in a narrow range at the price of 5 yuan per kilogram. At the same time, soybean prices in the international market have continued to decline in recent years, and the decline is relatively obvious, which constitutes a "fatal" blow to the domestic soybean market that does not have a price advantage.

However, it is worth noting that the recent domestic soybean prices are dark and bright, ushered in a little dawn. At present, the average wholesale price of domestic soybeans sold on the market is 4.9 yuan per kilogram, up 0.23 yuan or 4.93% from the beginning of August. Although it seems to have risen by more than two cents, it is undoubtedly good news for domestic soybeans that have been weak and have few opportunities to rise. There are two main factors for the rise: after nearly one year of consumption, the market circulation volume decreases, and there is still some time before the harvest and listing of soybeans in the new season, which drives the price rise; recently, relevant state departments strictly check the flow direction of imported genetically modified soybeans. At present, Shandong Port has stopped the distribution trade of imported soybeans. For the domestic soybean market is good news, the market rebounded accordingly.

The market outlook or will rise slightly

For the future soybean trend, the personage inside course of study thinks, on the one hand, compared with corn, rice and other food crops, soybean planting benefit is obviously low, the overall planting area has decreased without increase, the production situation is still not optimistic. However, in recent years, the decrease in domestic soybean supply has not directly raised its sales price. If the later countries further strengthen the supervision on the flow of imported soybeans, it will increase the demand for domestic soybeans to a certain extent, thus supporting a small rebound in their prices.

Soybean oil: bad prices lead to bad words

The devaluation of the renminbi, which began on August 11, has become a hot spot in the market and has intensified concerns about the global economic outlook in recent days. The depreciation of RMB means that the cost of imported soybeans in China will increase accordingly, which makes the market worry about the prospect of soybean sales.

In addition, the August supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture pointed out that the US soybean production in 2015/2016 is expected to be 3.916 billion bushels, which is higher than the July forecast. This month the United States will usher in the soybean harvest season, if there is no abnormal weather, the overall production is expected to be more optimistic. Soybean and soybean oil prices in the international market fell in August under the double pressure of RMB depreciation aggravating market worries and expected high yield of US soybeans. As of August 25, compared with the beginning of the month, the closing prices of soybean and soybean oil in the international market fell by 6% and 10% respectively. This phenomenon of short time and obvious decline is bound to have a direct impact on the domestic soybean oil market.

From Beijing City to see, recently some brands of soybean oil has begun to reduce. Dadi Yuquan Road market data show, Compared with the beginning of August, Beijing produced a brand soybean oil per box (5L*4 barrels) wholesale price of 138 yuan, Down 2 yuan, Down 1.43%. Through communication with wholesalers, soybean oil market performance has been poor this year, so most merchants purchase enthusiasm is not high, the overall inventory is not large. However, the price drop makes the purchase willingness of large oil users lower, in order to get benefits in the price reduction, the general use of the method of pick-up, so that the sales speed slows down.

Market personage introduced, Since 2011, Soybean oil market has been declining trend, Take the market accounts for a relatively large brand soybean oil as an example, From August 2011 per box (5L*4 barrels) Wholesale price 218 yuan to the current 144 yuan, Down 74 yuan, Drop more than 30%. The main reason is that the strength of the US dollar has led to lower international commodity prices denominated in US dollars. At the same time, in recent years, the world's three major soybean producers and exporters of the United States, Brazil, Argentina soybean overall high yield, global soybean supply is relatively abundant also to soybean, soybean oil prices to create conditions.

The market outlook or there will be a small decline

For the future market trend, The personage inside course of study thinks, From the external environment, As the world soybean main producer and exporter of the United States, This month will usher in soybean harvest season, High yield expected optimistic fundamentals will constitute a certain negative impact on the market. At the same time, the international crude oil price continues to fall also to the soybean oil market formation suppression; From the internal factors, Since this year, China's soybean imports continue to show growth trend, Domestic soybean inventory sufficient pressure is still not to be underestimated. In addition, since the second quarter, domestic pork prices continue to rise, breeding profits are better or will stimulate farmers to expand the scale, soybean meal and other feed consumption demand will also increase. In the case of a better soybean meal market, it may increase the processing capacity of edible oil enterprises, and the increase in soybean oil supply is bound to restrain its price rebound. Overall, soybean oil wholesale prices are expected to decline slightly in the short term.