The acquisition progress of early rice accelerates the stability and strength of the rice market

According to a survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sown area of early rice in 2015 was 5715.4 thousand hectares, a decrease of 79.5 thousand hectares or 1.4 percent over the previous year. The total output of early rice in the country was 33.691 million tons, a decrease of 320000 tons, or 0.9 percent. This is the second consecutive year of decline in early indica rice production since 2013. The decrease in the yield of early indica rice reduces the market supply pressure and provides a certain support to the early indica rice purchase market.

The supply pressure of early rice is smaller than that of the same period last year.

According to statistics from the State Grain Administration, as of August 15, various grain enterprises in eight major early indica rice producing areas, including Jiangxi and Hunan, had purchased 3.54 million tons of new early indica rice, an increase of 30, 000 tons, or 0.85%, over the same period last year. As private enterprises are still pessimistic about the late trend of the domestic rice market, acquisitions are more cautious.

Farmers are more enthusiastic in selling. Due to the low consumption proportion of early indica rice and the "five-water co-governance" being carried out all over the country, the cultivation of individual farmers in the southern region has decreased, and the demand for early indica rice has also decreased. Therefore, farmers' willingness to retain early indica rice is not high.

The demand for early indica rice increased in local reserves. This year is the first year that the state has put forward the provincial governor responsibility system for food security. while doing a good job in grain production, all provinces and cities have put forward plans to increase the scale of local grain reserves. Due to the good storage tolerance of early indica rice, it is still favored by the collection and storage enterprises at this stage, and the rotation volume is expected to increase this year. Due to the strong rigidity of the reserve rotation purchase time plan, the increase of the reserve plan plays a strong role in promoting the early indica rice market under the condition of tight grain supply in the early indica rice market.

The lowest purchase price plan is supported at the bottom. At the beginning of the early indica rice scale this year, the purchase price of early rice in the main producing areas was generally lower than the minimum purchase price of 1.35 yuan / jin. On July 28, China Grain Storage took the lead in supporting the market in Anhui, Jiangxi and Hunan provinces, and the start time of the plan was the same as that of last year. Hubei province launched a market-supporting acquisition on July 30, about a week later than the previous year. This is also the lowest purchase price plan for early indica rice launched in China for three consecutive years. Because the market price of early indica rice is higher than the market price, it enhances the enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain, and the start of the plan of minimum purchase price for early indica rice is of great significance to boost market confidence and stabilize market price trend.

In the case of declining output, the pace of purchasing early indica rice is accelerated, especially the increase in the amount of purchases by state-owned enterprises, which means that the market can buy less food sources, indicating that the current supply pressure of early indica rice market will be less than the same period last year, which is conducive to the market stabilizing and rebounding.

Rice market is becoming more and more active.

Although the domestic rice market is under heavy pressure such as large inventories and the continuous increase in rice imports, with the cooler weather and the opening of universities and middle schools, the demand for rice has gradually recovered recently, and the market has gradually become active. It is expected that the rice market before "Shuangjie" will remain relatively optimistic.

Demand for rice rebounded slightly. At present, when the school year begins in large and middle schools, and the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are coming soon, according to the usual practice, the demand for rice will increase seasonally, prompting dealers to increase the stock of rice, and the enthusiasm of processing enterprises will also be enhanced as a result, thus stimulating the demand for rice, which will help the rice market to pick up slightly.

Farmers' stock of Chen Daoku has bottomed out. China had a bumper rice harvest in 2014, with a total output of 206 million tons, an increase of 2.815 million tons over the previous year, setting a new record.

As farmers are not optimistic about the late market and have a high enthusiasm for selling, grain reserves this year have dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. According to statistics, by the end of March, at the end of the peak purchasing season, various grain enterprises in the main middle and late rice producing areas had accumulated 68 million tons of new middle and late rice, an increase of 5.34 million tons over the same period last year. It shows that in the same period, the amount of grain left at home has correspondingly decreased by more than 2 million tons compared with the same period last year.

With the passage of time and long-term consumption, farmers' household grain reserves were basically sold out in the first half of the year. When their original stocks are exhausted, enterprises can only rely on reserve rice rotation or temporary storage auction. When participating in the auction of stored rice, the transaction price is relatively high, which is generally higher than the market price. For example, at the temporary Storage Fair held on August 26, the actual transaction of japonica rice produced in Heilongjiang in 2014 was 24799 tons, with the highest transaction price of 3230 yuan / ton, the lowest transaction price of 3070 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price of 3202 yuan / ton.

Plus freight and certain out-of-warehouse costs, the actual price of arriving at the enterprise is even higher. The increase in storage cost can boost the market price of rice to a certain extent.

The launch of new mid-season rice may be delayed. From previous years to the end of September, the listing of medium rice in southern China has gradually entered the peak season, which can meet the increasing demand for rice in the second half of the year. This year, due to the combined influence of the El Ni ñ o phenomenon and the Taiwan wind, it was cloudy and rainy in August in the southern region, and the temperature was lower than in previous years. The maturity and harvest of mid-late rice in some major producing areas may be delayed compared with the previous year, which will have a certain impact on the listing of new mid-season rice before Shuangjie, which is conducive to the strengthening of pre-festival rice market.

Under the joint action of the minimum purchase plan of early indica rice and the improvement of rice demand, it is expected that the pre-festival market of early indica rice and middle and late rice is likely to be stable and strong.