Laying hens are out of gear to help egg prices rise again.

"the price of eggs has risen before, and hot weather is the most important reason." Zhu Binglin, vice president of Shanxi Jinlong Group, explained to reporters that the high temperature caused an increase in the proportion of laying hens "resting" and a reduction in egg supply. In the case of a decline in egg laying rate and egg weight, the national egg supply has been reduced by 5% by 10%. In addition, the increase in the number of eliminated chickens and the decrease in the number of laying hens in the past two months are also important drivers of price increases. It is understood that from June to July this year, the price of eggs is as low as 3 yuan per jin, and the feed fee plus labor costs will result in a loss of 0.5 yuan per jin in egg sales. in this way, every 1000 chickens will be compensated for 80 yuan a day, and farmers have no choice but to eliminate laying hens.

At the same time, with the decline in the number of sows, pig prices have recovered from March, and by August, the price of hairy pigs has been close to 10 yuan / jin. The "take-off" of pig prices has also led to a rise in the prices of broilers, knockout chickens and eggs. Among them, the market of eliminated chickens is getting better, and the price is the strongest. The price difference between eliminated chickens and eggs is increasing, farmers eliminate a large number of chickens, and laying hens are greatly reduced. As a result of the above factors, the supply of eggs continued to shrink, contributing to the "soaring" of egg prices from July to August.

As for the future egg price, Zhu Binglin believes that March and April this year will be the peak of chickens, and these chickens will start production in September, and the supply of eggs will cause the egg price to fall to around 3.8 yuan per jin from late September to early October. This will also be the lowest point in the second half of this year.

In the long run, however, egg prices are still expected to rise. After January 2016, egg prices in major producing areas across the country are expected to rise to 4.3-4.5 yuan per jin.

This is because, despite the great downward pressure on the economy in 2015, for eggs, the current market price has fully absorbed the contraction in consumption caused by the economic downturn. Data show that the number of laying hens in July increased by only 1.6% over the same period last year, while the egg price in Yuncheng production area was 4.75 yuan per jin on July 31 last year and 3.55 yuan per jin on July 31 this year, a drop of 25%. It is difficult for egg consumption to show great changes that affect the overall trend of egg prices in the future. On the supply side, based on data held by Shanxi Jinlong Group, Zhu Binglin estimated that the number of laying hens could be reduced by as much as 10% in the future. He explained that from May to August, the number of chicken fences is half or less than that in the same period last year, and five months later, that is, from October 2015 to January 2016, the number of new laying hens will gradually decrease.

The data show that in terms of the age structure of laying hens, in July, the proportion of chicks aged 90-120 days increased significantly, while the proportion of old chickens more than 450 days accounted for only 6.54%. According to Yang Xiaolei, egg research manager of Zhihua data, the profits of laying hens are better in August, farmers have not been eliminated on a large scale, and the stock of laying hens will continue to increase. At the same time, with the end of the hot weather, the laying rate of laying hens will pick up and the supply of eggs will increase. "but it is worth noting that in July, the proportion of chickens in 0-60 days decreased significantly, while the proportion of old chickens in 400-450 days increased, so the elimination of old chickens from September to October is the focus of attention." Yang Xiaolei added that if the high price of eliminated hens in September and October stimulates farmers to eliminate laying hens on a large scale, and there is a significant decrease in the number of laying hens in the future, there will be a "cut-off period" in the stock of laying hens. At that time, egg prices will "set sail" again.