The weakening impact of grain price changes on CPI will also become the new normal.

In August 2015, the overall level of consumer prices across the country rose 2.0% from a year earlier. Of this total, urban prices rose by 2.0%, rural areas by 1.8%, food prices by 3.7%, non-food prices by 1.1%, consumer prices by 1.8%, and service prices by 2.2%. Grain prices rose 1.7 percent, affecting the overall level of consumer prices by about 0.05 percentage points.

In August, food prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, affecting the overall consumer price level to rise by about 1.23 percentage points. Among them, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 15.9%, affecting the overall level of consumer prices by about 0.46%; the prices of meat and poultry and their products rose by 9.3%, affecting the overall level of consumer prices by about 0.69% (pork prices rose by 19.6%, affecting the overall level of consumer prices by about 0.59%) The price of aquatic products rose 2.4%, affecting the overall level of consumer prices by about 0.06%; the price of fresh fruit fell by 8.1%, affecting the overall level of consumer prices by about 0.18%; and the price of eggs fell by 11.2%. The overall level of consumer prices affected by residents decreased by about 0.11 percentage points.

Shang Qiangmin, director of the State Food Information Center, once published an article in China Grain economy magazine, saying: first, the impact of changes in grain prices on CPI has weakened. For example, the rise in egg prices in December 2014 has affected the overall level of consumer price index by about 0.12 percent, which is 1.3 times that of grain prices. A small egg is better than steamed bread and rice. Second, in 2015, the situation of grain supply exceeding demand will be more obvious, the driving force of rising food prices will weaken, and even pull down CPI.

I fully agree with Shang Qiangmin's point of view that before the Spring Festival or the new year, grain prices generally rise slightly. On the contrary, the domestic economic downturn and the "three high" superposition of high inventory, high output and high purchase volume of grain are the "mixer" of grain collection, storage and price in 2015, the contradiction between increasing the income of grain farmers and the cost of raising grain prices, and the contradiction between grain support to the market or temporary reserve purchase and the increase of financial burden. The contradiction between the import of grain by making use of international resources and the impact on the balance of domestic grain production and demand, the contradiction between the single purchasing subject of China stored grain market and the collection and storage of local grain enterprises, and the conventional view that grain price is the basis of 100 prices and the conflict against CPI, are not only the reference factors for the industry to re-recognize the new domestic grain cycle, but also the elements to prudently adjust and improve the new policy of grain collection and storage.

Grain prices are the basis of all prices. There should be a question mark in this assertion, which can be supported by two pieces of evidence. Over the past five years, labor wages have risen several times, and logistics costs have also doubled. In fact, the increase in food prices is pitiful. Some data show that food prices have risen by more than 60% since 2006, which is actually not high, compared with vegetables, meat, poultry and eggs, and real estate prices.

Some figures show that although the state has repeatedly raised the minimum purchase prices for wheat, corn and rice, the average minimum purchase price for wheat, corn and rice in 2007 was only 80 percent of the price level 10 years ago. In 1997, the price of domestic wheat and rice reached the level of 2000 yuan per ton. In the past two years, the three major grain varieties of wheat, rice and corn have only exceeded the price level of 15 years ago.

What is even more unthinkable is that as soon as there is a stir in grain prices and panic, it immediately arouses criticism that, in fact, a jin of wheat is not worth the value or output efficiency of a bottle of mineral water, and farmers do not get the value of the value-added part of agricultural products.

It is unfair to blame the rise of CPI on grain prices and other agricultural products, at least there are problems in the design of index weights, and it is also an injustice or prejudice against agricultural grain production. Today, with the acceleration of urbanization, we can no longer "exploit" grain farmers. The era of agricultural back-feeding industry is gone forever, and agriculture must be protected, fed back and compensated.

The prices of health care, education or housing are seen as rising prices, but aren't they the main cause of inflation? Is one yuan more than a jin of grain comparable to the skyrocketing cost of early childhood education or old-age care? Food prices in China are not too high, but too low. Grain has created an era of low prices, which ends with the rise in land, water resources, oil, agricultural materials or labor costs.

Teacher Zheng Fengtian said that the price of agricultural products is not the culprit of inflation. The excessive proportion of food in CPI often becomes an important reason why food prices are excessively suppressed, which will be extremely harmful to grain-producing farmers in the long run. At present, the comparative benefit of grain production in our country is too low, and the income of farmers who farm at home for one month can not catch up with that of working outside for a week. In recent years, the wages of migrant workers have risen sharply, which has further affected the grain-growing enthusiasm of farmers who work at home. "planting lazy fields" and abandoning wasteland have appeared in some areas.