At present, there is a simultaneous increase in three quantities of grain in China: comprehensive supply exceeds demand.

At present, the phenomenon of "three simultaneous increases" of grain output, import and inventory in China has aroused widespread concern in the society. Experts believe that to solve the problem of high grain stocks, we cannot treat the head by piecemeal measures. If we only consider digesting a certain variety of grain with high inventory, and do not consider solving the formation mechanism of high inventory, the food problem will occur again and again.

At the 2015 China Grain and Oil Wealth Forum held in Beijing on December 5, some experts judged that China's grain production is facing another comprehensive oversupply situation after the reform and opening up, resulting in an increase in grain stocks and increased supply pressure. the market mechanism must be used to resolve the current predicament.

At present, China's high grain stocks and increased supply pressure are caused by many reasons: first, the domestic grain harvest has been bumper year after year; second, the inverted grain prices at home and abroad have led to a large number of grain imports, and the grain import volume is expected to reach 125 million tons this year, which has a serious impact on the domestic market; third, the domestic and foreign macroeconomic downturn, consumption is not booming, exports are blocked, and the effective demand for grain is low.

Against this background, the State Council recently held an executive meeting to put forward a series of strategic measures to stabilize grain production, increase farmers' income and ensure national food security. Liu Jian, counsellor of the State Council, believes that grain is a special commodity, which not only has the economic attribute, but also has the nature of quasi-public goods. As a kind of quasi-public goods, the state should increase its support to the grain industry.

The relevant departments have also tried to solve the problems of insufficient storage capacity and difficulties for farmers to sell grain through measures such as building warehousing facilities and moving warehouses across provinces. However, under the background of successive bumper harvests of domestic grain and under the condition of market globalization, solving the problems of high inventory and high supply pressure is still a big problem facing our country at present. It is not an effective way to control grain imports, and it is very difficult to achieve domestic supply balance by subsidizing exports. Some experts believe that adjusting the planting structure is a better way to solve the high grain stocks at present. While stabilizing the planting area of rice, wheat and corn, fallow was carried out in Hebei underground funnel area and southern areas where heavy metals exceeded the standard, fallow rotation was promoted in the "sickle bend" area, the pilot scope of "changing grain into feed" was expanded, and the planting area of corn was reduced.

Cheng Guoqiang, secretary-general of the academic Committee of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that to solve the problem of high inventory, there should be no piecemeal measures. If we only consider the idea of digesting a certain variety of grain with high inventory, and do not consider solving the formation mechanism of high inventory, the grain problem will occur again and again. China's current grain price policy should not only ensure supply and promote grain production, but also ensure income to arouse farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain. This policy can arouse the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain when the grain supply is relatively scarce, but contradictions will occur when the grain supply is relatively abundant.

This year marks the end of the 12th five-year Plan, and it is also a year for the state to launch an important reform of grain policy. In fact, since last year, the state has begun to reform the existing grain price policy. Last year, the state began to pilot the target price reform of soybeans and cotton, and this year it will no longer raise the minimum purchase prices for wheat and rice. Adjust the rapeseed temporary storage purchase policy, and reduce the corn temporary storage purchase price. However, due to the continuous implementation of grain price support policies for many years, the market has formed a path dependence on the existing grain price support policies. this year, corn storage and purchase prices have been reduced, causing a strong reaction in the grain market and temporary fluctuations in grain prices. Cheng Guoqiang believes that if the state does not take corresponding supporting measures when implementing grain price policy reform, it may lead to the transfer of grain production capacity to unadjusted varieties, resulting in a surplus of other grain varieties.

Therefore, the current grain price policy reform needs to be further deepened, targeted measures should be implemented, price and compensation should be separated, and different policies should be adopted for different objectives. In order to promote the reform of grain price support policy, we must establish supporting policies and establish a benefit compensation mechanism for grain price reform, so that the interests of grain farmers will not be harmed in the reform. In order to innovate the grain regulation mechanism and system, it is necessary to promote the transformation of policies from the current "production-increasing orientation" dominated by direct intervention in price support to a basic balance between supply and demand based on price separation and market mechanism, and to form a new type of regulation and control system based on policy subsidies and the combination of expected guidance, risk management, reserve regulation, trade supplement and other tools.

Liu Jian believes that in grain production and circulation, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of the prediction of grain production and circulation information, establish a national food security mechanism, and mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain through the establishment of a relatively stable price formation mechanism. through the establishment of a benefit compensation mechanism for major grain producing areas, the enthusiasm of governments in major grain producing areas should be aroused. (economic Daily reporter Liu Hui)

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Sickle bend area

The "sickle bend" area is the first regional division put forward by the Ministry of Agriculture, which is not only to learn from the technical terms in steel processing, but also a visual description of the region.

The "sickle bend" area includes the northeast cold area, the northern agro-pastoral ecotone, the northwest wind and sand arid area, the Taihang Mountain area and the southwest stone desert area, which is distributed from northeast to North China-southwest-northwest in the topographic map. Perennial corn planting area accounts for about 1/3 of the whole country, and it is also the key area of corn structure adjustment.