Can temporary storage policy become a "turning point" in corn market

Today, the atmosphere of new grain listing in the domestic corn market is getting stronger, and its price is "falling endlessly". At the same time, although the current southern port corn and related imported grain stocks are not the same as in the previous two months, but now the inventory decline is too late, autumn grain is coming on the market, temporary corn purchase policy is the "key point" to determine the rate of decline in the later period.

Rumors about the purchase policy of corn in temporary storage rise again.

Recently, the early-maturing variety corn in Liaoning Montenegro has been listed sporadically, but the moisture is on the high side, and the willingness of enterprises to acquire is not strong. Traders are more active in selling old corn, but the carrying capacity of downstream enterprises is insufficient, purchase and sale is light, corn prices continue to be weak, and some deep processing enterprises suspend their acquisitions, including Songyuan Cargill in Jilin Province, offering 2100 yuan / ton before closing; Cofco Yushu suspending purchases and offering 2180 yuan tons before closing; Cofco Gongzhuling 2220 yuan / ton, flat, third-class quality, price without market Meihe Fukang bid 2180 yuan / ton, flat, second-class, daily purchase volume of about 3000 tons; Jilin alcohol purchase price of 2100 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton compared with last week, third-class, daily purchase volume of about 2000 tons.

Recently, a small amount of autumn corn has been listed in China, while low-priced grain is still in circulation in Jilin Province, so it has a certain impact on market prices, and the quotations of enterprises have been lowered steadily. In addition, it is worth noting that rumors about the purchase policy of temporary storage corn in Northeast China have revived. Based on the third-class grain sources in Jilin, the purchase price standard of temporary storage corn may be lowered to 1950-2000 yuan / ton, which is significantly lower than the level of 2240 yuan / ton last year and lower than the level expected by the market. However, whether this market news is true or not needs to be confirmed and paid close attention to.

The prices of new and old corn in North China are basically the same.

Corn prices in North China and Northeast China have continued to decline since September, and some enterprises in North China have purchased new corn, and there is almost no price difference between new and old corn. Up to now, the purchase price of 14% moisture second-class corn by deep processing enterprises in Weifang, Shandong Province is 2130-2160 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton from the end of August; the price of new and old corn purchased by deep processing enterprises in Dezhou area is 2140 yuan / ton; the price of 14% moisture new and old corn purchased by deep processing enterprises in Qinhuangdao area of Hebei Province is 1980 yuan / ton, and the price of old corn is 130 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of August. Enterprises in North China continue to reduce the prices of old corn, and the prices of new and old corn in some enterprises are basically the same. This adjustment of the purchase price on the one hand is in the hope that the new corn will fall into place as soon as possible, on the other hand, it is also due to the large inventory, it is difficult to harvest more corn.

Corn prices in northern ports continue to decline

With the continuous listing of new corn in Liaoning, the market pressure of corn in the northern port increases, and its price continues to decline. So far, Liaoning Bayuquan Port 14.5% moisture Liaoji corn purchase price of 2200-2240 yuan / ton, theoretical closing price of 2250-2290 yuan / ton, down 60-70 yuan / ton compared with last week Jinzhou port 14.5% moisture Liaoji corn purchase price 2200-2210 yuan / ton, theoretical closing price 2250-2280 yuan / ton, all down 50-60 yuan / ton compared with last week. At present, a small number of traders buy new season corn, mildew less than 2%, moisture less than 14.5%, and the purchase price above bulk density 690g/L is 2180-2200 yuan / ton. The new corn is mainly from the western region of Liaoning, and the price is 20-40 yuan lower than Chen Jiyu rice.

Recently, the trade profit of the north-south port is about 30 yuan / ton, and the volume of the northern port has increased, reaching 171000 tons last week, the highest in nearly four weeks. Although the progress of destocking in the northern port has been accelerated, with the gradual listing of corn in the new season, the pressure on the sales of aged corn in the port is still greater, and there is still room for decline in the future market of Chen Jiyu rice under the expectation that corn prices in the new season are not optimistic.

The price difference of corn between good and bad quality of Guangdong port widens.

Since September, the price difference between superior and inferior corn in Guangdong port has been widening. up to now, the transaction price of Liaoji high-quality corn in Shenzhen port of Guangdong is 2390-2420 yuan / ton, down 40-50 yuan / ton from last week, and the corn price with quality deviation is 2300-2350 yuan / ton. it is 80 yuan / ton lower than last week, and the price difference between superior and inferior corn is 70-90 yuan / ton. at present, a small amount of Hebei corn arrives at the port, and the price is 2300-2350 yuan / ton. Due to the increasing pressure of new corn on the market, the price of Guangdong port corn is suppressed, but the drop resistance of high quality corn is better than that of quality deviation corn. As of September 9, the stock of corn for domestic trade in Guangdong port was 294000 tons, an increase of 85000 tons over last week, and foreign trade inventory was 153000 tons, a decrease of 51000 tons over last week. Guangdong port stocks totaled 447000 tons, an increase of 34000 tons over last week. The corn imported into Hong Kong in August is the last batch of corn imported this year, and there is basically no imported corn to Hong Kong after September. In the later period, the foreign trade inventory of corn in the port of Guangdong will continue to decline, and the supply of corn in the port is mainly domestic trade inventory.

At present, it is only one month away from the concentrated listing of corn in the main producing areas, and the main body of the market is pessimistic about the price of corn in the new season, but the downstream demand has not changed obviously. the number of imported miscellaneous grains to Hong Kong in September is still relatively large, and the price of corn in the port of Guangdong will still run weakly in the later period, but feed enterprises have a certain rigid demand for high-quality corn, and the price gap between the price and quality deviation of high-quality corn may continue to expand.

The trend of domestic and foreign corn market deviates.

Unlike the decline in the domestic corn market, prices in the international corn market have mostly risen recently, reversing the recent decline, mainly due to the positive September supply and demand report released by the United States Department of Agriculture and the weakening exchange rate of the US dollar, but the global commodity market continues to fluctuate violently. China's economic situation is worrying, and the demand situation is bad, restricting the increase in feed prices. The December 2015 corn period on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose about 24 cents from a week earlier to 387 cents per bushel as of September 11. Meiwan No. 2 yellow corn is quoted at 432.5 cents per cattail, up 28 cents from a week ago, or about $170 per ton. the main market impact is the monthly supply and demand report released by the United States Department of Agriculture, which is good for corn prices. because the USDA cut US corn production by a lower margin than the market expected. The global coarse grain supply forecast for 2015 has been revised downwards by 2.3 million tonnes, as global corn production has been cut by 7.5 million tonnes, which is larger than the 5.3 million tonne increase in global barley production. The decline in global corn production data is mainly due to the reduction of 4.3 million tons in the European Union and the lower production data in the United States. The forecast of global corn inventory at the end of the period in 2015 is reduced by 5.4 million tons to 189.7 million tons, a decrease of 7.5 million tons over the previous year.

To sum up, due to the heavy expectation of corn price reduction in the new season before the listing of autumn grain, especially the release of the "bad" market signal of temporary storage corn in the new season, the decline of port grain inventory and even the decline of feed enterprise inventory is a natural seasonal phenomenon, which plays a limited role in supporting the future of domestic corn. For grain enterprises, they can maintain rolling replenishment while maintaining safety stocks, while grain merchants look forward to the introduction of a new temporary storage policy as soon as possible to put an end to the current unpredictable decline.