For whose agricultural modernization agricultural modernization and national conditions

China's dream of catching up with and surpassing over the past century is to realize modernization, and the realization of China's modernization should of course include agricultural modernization. At the beginning of the founding of New China, through the socialist transformation led by "agricultural cooperation", China reconstructed the production and social relations in rural areas. Premier Zhou Enlai put forward the idea of "four modernizations" at the first session of the third National people's Congress in 1964, holding that "agricultural modernization is the foundation, industrial modernization is the leading force, and scientific and technological modernization is the driving force." the modernization of national defense is the guarantee. "at the first session of the fourth National people's Congress in 1975, Zhou Enlai once again put forward the goal of" realizing the four modernizations "at the end of the 20th century. Agricultural modernization is not only an integral part of China's overall modernization, but also the basis for ensuring the overall modernization. In the context of China's modernization in the second half of the 20th century, agricultural modernization is mainly "agricultural mechanization, water conservancy, fertilizer, and electrification", with emphasis on the modernization of agricultural production links, to improve labor productivity and to increase production and income.

Entering the 21st century, the central government has re-mentioned agricultural modernization, in which there are two important aspects: one is how to solve the contradiction between small farmers' decentralized management and socialized large-scale production, and how to solve the contradiction between small farmers and large market. At present, the mainstream understanding of agricultural modernization puts more emphasis on the limitations of small farmers' management, and tends to lead small farmers to improve their production capacity and ability to cope with the market in the form of leading enterprises + farmers. The expression of modernization is to emphasize agricultural industrialization. The problem is that practice has proved that the scale of more than 200 million small farmers in China is very small, and the practice of companies plus farmers has taught many lessons throughout the country, with little success. In 2010, the central government began to put forward the strategy of "synchronizing the three modernizations", that is, "promoting agricultural modernization in the in-depth development of industrialization and urbanization". While farmers go to cities on a large scale, they try to promote the circulation of rural land, cultivate a new type of agricultural management main body, and take the new type of agricultural management main body as the basis, develop modern agriculture, become rich farmers and build a new countryside. The No. 1 document of the CPC Central Committee in 2015, entitled "some opinions on increasing the intensity of Reform and Innovation and speeding up Agricultural Modernization", put forward that "if China wants to be strong, agriculture must be strong; if China wants to be rich, farmers must be rich; and if China wants beauty," the goal of "strong, rich and beautiful" is that rural areas must be beautiful. As a result, agricultural modernization has become a project with high standards and all-round promotion.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the central government has continuously issued more than a dozen agriculture-related documents and made systematic arrangements for the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers at all levels. Document No. 1 has a policy content, and many of its work deployments require state financial support. At present, the state's annual financial funds for supporting agriculture exceed one trillion yuan. The agriculture-related policy with high gold content has not only greatly changed and transformed the current situation of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in China, but also effectively promoted the modernization of agriculture. However, under the slogan of agricultural modernization, which has great appeal, there seems to be some ambiguity in the current policy on agriculture, rural areas and farmers. in the gold content of the rural policy, many financial funds are not used efficiently or even incorrectly. The important reason is the lack of analysis of agricultural modernization itself and the lack of cleaning up the main contradictions and contradictions in the issues of agriculture, rural areas and farmers. The reason why the Central Committee has issued the No. 1 Agriculture-related document for more than a decade, and that the Central Government has transferred trillions of yuan of financial funds to rural areas every year is because there are some shortcomings in agriculture, rural areas and farmers, which cannot be solved by the market and society alone, but must have the support of the state. The purpose of the state's support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers is to solve the problem of the bottom line, but it is not and impossible to make the rural areas "rich and beautiful." It is very difficult to realize the "strong, rich and beautiful" agricultural modernization by relying on supporting policies and financial funds to support agriculture.

In general understanding, agricultural modernization is often replaced by modern agriculture, by the large-scale agricultural picture of American-style farms with the most advanced technology and equipment. In the practice of local governments, it is common for large households to develop large-scale agriculture. Agricultural modernization is equal to "high-end". The more modern and advanced it is, the better. Some local governments even put forward the goal of taking the lead in realizing agricultural modernization, ignoring the relationship between agricultural modernization and China's national conditions, and what is the goal of agricultural modernization.

This paper mainly discusses why the central government should issue Agriculture-related document No. 1 for more than ten years and transfer trillions of yuan of financial funds to support agriculture every year to promote agricultural modernization, and discuss the purpose and focus of agricultural modernization. discuss what goal and focus of agricultural modernization should be achieved under the current national conditions of China. On the whole, it is "for whom's agricultural modernization".

I. Agricultural Modernization and National conditions

Obviously, agricultural modernization cannot be abstract and absolute, but can only be discussed under specific historical conditions. China's agricultural modernization should be discussed under China's national conditions. China's national conditions related to China's agricultural modernization include two parts, one is the environmental conditions of agricultural modernization, and the other is the internal basis of agricultural modernization. The following are discussed separately.

At present, China is in the middle stage of modernization, and its per capita GDP has reached 7500 US dollars, which belongs to the upper-middle-income country and is in the so-called "middle-income stage." Judging from the development practice of nearly 200 economies in the world for more than one hundred years since the 20th century, the middle-income stage is a relatively dangerous stage, in which economic growth is weak, the social interest structure is rigid, and the interest demands of all strata are constantly increasing. the flexibility of the social structure is reduced. With the increasing rigidity of the interest structure, the increase of social conflicts, the continuous rise of wages, and the decline of industrial international competitiveness, the higher and higher interest demands collide with the sluggish economy, and social conflicts and even political conflicts occur frequently. in turn, it further affects economic growth, which leads to the "middle-income trap".

In terms of China's current situation, since the reform and opening up, relying on the advantage of cheap labor,"Made in China" has become invincible and has become a "world factory". In nearly 30 years, China's economy has maintained a double-digit growth rate, creating a miracle in the history of world economic development. In a very short period of time, it has changed from a low-income country to a middle-income country. China's economic growth to the present stage, labor costs began to rise rapidly, relying on the "demographic dividend" to gain comparative advantage "Made in China" has begun to decline. China's economy is facing tremendous pressure from scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading. In the next 20 years, if China can successfully upgrade from "Made in China" to "Created in China" and upgrade from the low end of the world industrial value chain to the middle and high end, China can get out of the middle-income trap and become a developed country from a developing country. If China fails to complete industrial upgrading for a long time, the consequences may be that the increasingly high labor costs make "Made in China" no longer internationally competitive, and "Created in China" cannot provide enough employment opportunities, resulting in industrial hollowing, which may lead to serious social instability and even political turmoil in China.

Therefore, the next 20 years will be a critical stage for China's economic development, the core of which is whether China can successfully upgrade its industry on the basis of continuing to maintain its international competitiveness and upgrade its industry from the low end of the current world industrial value chain to the middle and high end. In the fierce international competition, it is obviously very difficult for China to realize such a transformation, especially since China is a big country with a population of more than 1.3 billion. This transformation is to leap from the low end of the pyramid of international industrial division of labor to the middle and high end. Such a leap will even fundamentally change the structure of the international industry and even the existing world system. Obviously, it will be extremely risky and difficult.

To achieve such a leap from the edge of the world system to the center or semi-center, the state must not only maintain the international competitiveness of Made in China, so as to obtain economic surplus, but also use the economic surplus obtained by Made in China mainly to support "Made in China" and realize the stable expansion of "Made in China". This is the principal contradiction of China's modernization in the future, a critical stage of China's modernization for more than one hundred years, and a stage full of opportunities and risks. In the process of leaping from Made in China to Created in China, the whole Chinese society must maintain stability. Without a stable social environment and basic political conditions, such a leap would be impossible.

Relatively speaking, agricultural modernization is only a part of China's domestic market and a relatively minor contradiction in China's modernization. In other words, agricultural modernization should provide basic conditions for China's modernization to leap from "Made in China" to "Created in China". Only when China succeeds in creating, can the highly comprehensive modernization of China's agriculture finally be realized.

Judging from China's internal agricultural conditions, China still has a rural population of more than 600 million and an agricultural labor force of more than 200 million. Most of the more than 200 million migrant workers who work in cities for business cannot settle down in cities. They may return to the countryside if they fail to enter cities. More importantly, at present, China's rural areas have generally formed a "half-work and half-farming" family planning model based on intergenerational division of labor, that is, in peasant families, older parents stay in the village to farm and younger children work in cities.

Older parents lack employment opportunities in cities, which is good for farming. In the foreseeable next 20 years, when China cannot complete industrial upgrading, it is difficult for cities to provide enough stable employment opportunities with high income for farmers entering cities, and it is difficult for farmers entering cities to live decently in cities. Older farmers who have been eliminated from cities can return to agriculture to have agricultural employment and income, and they can combine retirement with farming. In this sense, in the next 20 years or even a longer period, China's rural areas will retain hundreds of millions of people who need to rely on agriculture, which determines that China's agriculture will still be small in scale for a long time to come.

At present, China's basic rural management system is a system of "unified integration and two-tier management based on the household contract responsibility system," that is, contracting according to households, and each household of the rural population obtains the right to contract land management, thus forming the current small-scale rural management system of "three points per mu and no more than 10 mu per household." The great difficulty that smallholder management faces at present is difficult to connect with socialized large-scale production.

If small farmers can better connect with socialized large-scale production, older farmers who lack employment opportunities in cities can obtain employment and income from agriculture, thus maximizing the income of farmers 'families through "half-work and half-cultivation based on generational division of labor" and thus relieving the pressure on China's social structure in the process of modernization. Over the past 30 years, one of the most important reasons why China has maintained stability in its rapid development is that Chinese farmers can obtain income from working and farming at the same time. Farmers 'income continues to increase, and rural areas have become stabilizers and reservoirs for China's modernization.

To sum up, the next 20 years will be a critical period for China's modernization. If China can maintain stability in the next 20 years and jump from Made in China to Created in China, China will really get out of the middle-income trap, from a developing country to a developed country, and from a marginal country in the world system to a central country. At this time, China has the conditions to build a higher degree of agricultural modernization. At this stage, China's agricultural modernization is not an end in itself, but a means for China to get out of the middle-income trap. Only in such a context can we understand China's agricultural modernization and put forward targeted policies on agriculture, rural areas and farmers and arrange funds for supporting agriculture.

Why Agriculture Matters

Agriculture is obviously very important. Why is it important? At the current stage, China's agriculture has three basic functions, and it is precisely the guarantee of these three basic functions that make China have the conditions for smooth modernization and ensure that China can get out of the middle-income trap. These three basic functions are: food security, farmers' income and employment, and rural social stability. The following are discussed separately.

Agriculture is the foundation, and the fundamental aspect is that no matter how developed and modern the economy is, people have to eat. With a population of more than 1.3 billion, it is not easy to have enough to eat. General Secretary Xi Jinping said that the rice bowls of the Chinese people must be in their own hands, which is the consensus of Chinese society, because once China does not have enough food and something goes wrong with the rice bowls, the surplus grain in the world will not be able to meet the needs of the Chinese people. and once the Chinese people are unable to solve the food problem on their own, grain may be used as a weapon to hinder China's development. With the development of economy and the growth of population, the demand for grain will increase, and the area of arable land in China will not only be difficult to increase, but also will be reduced because of urbanization. Therefore, by increasing agricultural investment, the task of developing agricultural science and technology to increase grain production is very arduous. The primary task of agricultural modernization should be to increase grain output and ensure food security through increased input and scientific and technological progress, so as to ensure that the Chinese people have enough to eat.

Not only should you have enough to eat, but you should also eat well. We should not only have food security, but also have safe food. But generally speaking, at present and even for quite a long time in the future, the primary task of Chinese agriculture is to have enough to eat. If you can't have enough to eat, it's impossible to modernize if you go hungry. Whether you can eat well is a secondary question. Under certain conditions, the problem of eating well can be solved through the domestic market or even the international market. China's agricultural products are forming market grades, passing organic certification, and so on. Some high-quality agricultural products are being consumed by families who pay attention to safe food, which is formed spontaneously by the market. Even some foreign high-quality agricultural products have a growing market in China. There is no problem that Chinese families are willing to eat well and there is no end to it. The state cannot guarantee that all Chinese people eat well, but it must ensure that all people have enough to eat. If you don't eat well at the moment, you can wait until you have the right conditions, but when you don't have enough to eat, you will starve to death, and the West can be used as a weapon to get stuck in the neck of the Chinese people.

The second major function of agriculture is to provide employment opportunities and income for hundreds of millions of peasant families who need to rely on agriculture. At the current stage of China's economic development, cities are unable to provide employment opportunities and income for all farmers living in cities, and the country cannot have the financial resources to provide social security for farmers to live in cities. This is a structural problem, which means that the current position of Chinese industry in the global value chain determines the income level of Chinese migrant workers in cities. The industrial structure at the low end of the global value chain cannot provide employment opportunities for migrant workers to live respectfully in cities.

It just so happens that the current basic management system of agriculture in China is a unified and two-tier management system based on household contract, and almost all peasant families have contracted land. Since the reform and opening up, with the increase of urban employment opportunities, the rural surplus labor force has been transferred from agriculture and entered the city to look for employment opportunities. Some of the urban farmers have made a fortune by working and doing business in the city. They have enough ability to move the whole family to live in the city. They break away from the countryside, integrate into the city and become urban residents. A larger number of urban farmers do not make a fortune by working and doing business, and they are unable to move their rural families to the cities, and even they have to return to the countryside when they are old. such urban farmers account for the majority of China's urban farmers.

At present and even for quite a long time in the future, there will be a household pattern of "part-time work and part-time farming" in Chinese rural families based on intergenerational division of labor. Older parents lack employment opportunities in cities, and it may be appropriate for them to engage in agriculture. The agricultural income is not high, but it can solve the food, clothing and daily expenses of the family, and the working income of the children of migrant workers can be saved up to do great things. There are not only income opportunities in rural areas, but also many elements of self-sufficient economy, so the cost of living for peasant families in rural areas is very low. With the farming income of the elderly parents, the life of the peasant family is easier. On the contrary, precisely because peasant families have agricultural income, young people who work in cities can accept relatively low wages and maintain the international competitiveness of "made in China". Thus it can provide space for China's industrial upgrading and "created in China" growth.

Agriculture is not only an indispensable source of income for farmers' families, but also the basis for farmers to carry out self-sufficient economy to reduce the cost of living, but also the employment of farmers. For the middle-aged and elderly farmers who lack urban employment opportunities, if they live in the city and have nothing to do and wander, they will not have any sense of dignity and achievement. But if you farm, sow in spring and harvest in autumn, and start your day with the rhythm of nature, you will have a sense of achievement and satisfaction. The farmer is busy with something to do, but he is looking forward to his leisure. It is through agricultural production that the relationship between the village acquaintance society is established, and the governance in the rural society is formed. For farmers or for anyone, without employment and nothing to do, life is tantamount to an early end. It is agricultural employment that prevents middle-aged and elderly farmers who lack urban employment opportunities from becoming "waiting for death teams." as long as they can move, they have to collect and pick up, do something, feel that they are useful, and will not commit suicide.

At present, China still has more than 200 million agricultural labor force, and the first generation of migrant workers are also on their way home or have already returned to their hometown. In the foreseeable future, hundreds of millions of agricultural population and peasant families will have to rely on agricultural income and employment. When agricultural GDP is less than 10 per cent, it is important to leave agricultural GDP to farmers' families as much as possible. In the future, peasant families will increasingly rely on working income, but agricultural income is indispensable, especially for the older parents in peasant families, agricultural income and employment are the basis for them to maintain their basic sense of dignity and dignity.

Obviously, agricultural modernization should not aim at eliminating hundreds of millions of small peasant families (including agriculture for the elderly), but should only serve the families of small farmers and agriculture for the elderly, help them overcome the difficulties in production and life, and respond to their own problems that are difficult to solve.

The third function of agriculture is to provide a stable rear area for China's modernization and make the countryside become the stabilizer and reservoir of China's modernization. Different from other developing countries, since the founding of New China, China has maintained social and political stability while maintaining sustained economic development. For more than two decades, Western countries have predicted the collapse of China almost every year, but China is still very stable, one of the important reasons is that China's rural areas have maintained stability, and rural areas provide a great buffer for China to deal with financial, economic and even social and political crises. 21 million migrant workers in China lost their jobs as a result of the Western financial crisis in 2008, but migrant workers can return to the countryside. According to farmers, losing the opportunity to work and returning to the countryside is just a matter of adding a pair of chopsticks to the dinner table. Unemployed migrant workers can return to rural areas, so that China has a strong ability to cope with the crisis. At the same time, because farmers all have rural land, farmers who fail to enter the city can return to the countryside without falling into urban slums that cannot live with dignity. If farmers fail to go to the city and cannot return to their hometown, the city will inevitably form large-scale slums, which will magnify the impact of every financial, economic and social crisis, making it more difficult for China to maintain social stability. In the future, China's road to modernization will not be smooth, and it will certainly encounter various difficulties and even major crises, but as long as the rural areas remain stable and rural areas can provide an exit for farmers who have failed to enter the cities, China will have the ability to digest difficulties and crises, and as a result, China will have plenty of time to achieve industrial upgrading, leaping from marginal countries in the world system to developed countries.

In this sense, agricultural modernization must not lead to the modernization that farmers who go to cities cannot return to their hometown, but need to provide smoother channels for farmers who fail to return to cities through agricultural modernization.

Summing up the above, for the next 20 years or more, agriculture must simultaneously perform three basic functions: first, to ensure food security; second, to enable hundreds of millions of farmers to obtain agricultural employment and income; and third, to provide rural stabilizers for China's modernization. Agricultural modernization is to obey and serve the above three functions, which are also the bottom line functions of agriculture. Precisely because it is the bottom line, the central government has to issue Agriculture-related document No. 1 for more than a decade in a row, and the state has to provide transfer payments of more than one trillion yuan to support agriculture every year.