Phased tight supply and demand promotes the return of wheat to policy price

The scope of the acquisition of wheat in the main producing areas to support the market is further expanded, which is expected to promote the start of the phased market of wheat. With the further reduction of grain supply in the domestic circulation market, coupled with the consumption of stored grain sources in flour processing enterprises, the new wheat circulation market will show a "supply decline and demand rise" pattern.

The purchase volume of the supporting market is gradually in line with that of the previous year.

According to statistics, as of September 10, various grain enterprises in nine major producing areas, including Henan and Jiangsu, had purchased 62.74 million tons of new wheat, a decrease of 8.46 million tons over the same period last year, but the purchase volume was the second highest since 2006.

Statistics show that the average amount of wheat purchased by various grain enterprises in the main producing areas from 2007 to 2014 was 54.53 million tons, with a maximum of 71.2 million tons (2014) and a minimum of 40.89 million tons (2007). In September, the expansion of the wheat purchase start-up area in the northern wheat region has enhanced market confidence to a certain extent, and will further reduce the number of grain sources in the circulation market.

Up to now, the purchase volume of wheat in the main producing areas in China is close to 20 million tons. The acquisition cycle of supporting the market has been obviously lengthened, so that the purchase volume of the supporting market is gradually closer to that of the previous year.

There are obvious differences in wheat prices due to different quality.

At present, the quality of wheat is different, and the difference of wheat price is obvious. Due to the scarcity of circulating grain sources of high quality wheat, it is difficult to purchase on a large scale, showing a pattern of "price without market", while poor quality wheat is affected by the low price of feed grain, and its substitute quantity and price of feed wheat are obviously impacted. Showing "no market, no price".

The local purchase price of red wheat produced by flour processing enterprises in Xinghua area of Jiangsu Province in 2015 is 2360-2440 yuan / ton, the local purchase price of Anhui white wheat flour processing enterprises is 2280-2320 yuan / ton, and that of feed enterprises is 2020-2080 yuan / ton. the delivery price of small ship plate of third-grade white wheat in Fengtai area of Anhui Province is 2230 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of new wheat of flour processing enterprises in Heze area of Shandong Province is 2400-2410 yuan / ton. The average entry price of third-grade white wheat in Shijiazhuang area of Hebei Province was 2420 yuan / ton in 2015, and the purchase price of first-grade white wheat in Yanjin area of Henan Province was 2340 yuan / ton in 2015.

With the decrease of grain supply in the market, the purchasing willingness of flour processing enterprises becomes stronger, but the performance of flour and wheat bran market is poor, and the demand starts slowly, which restricts their purchasing strength. Statistics from relevant institutions show that domestic wheat flour output in August was 11.9848 million tons, an increase of 3.01% over the same period last year. From January to August, wheat flour output was 91.8955 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year. As of mid-September, the average price difference between the domestic special first-class wheat flour and the third-class white wheat was 960-965 yuan / ton, narrowing the month-to-month ratio.

The auction of stored wheat may improve gradually

Due to the difference between the market price and the policy price of wheat, the transaction of national temporary storage wheat is hot and cold in the past and now. At present, the purchase price of new wheat in the main domestic producing areas is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and the national auction reserve price of third-class wheat is 2460 yuan / ton. The purchasing cost advantage of new wheat is obvious, which also makes the transaction lonely.

Statistics show that the transaction rate and average transaction price in the national temporary storage wheat auction market have increased significantly since mid-late August 2014. As of mid-September 2015, the remaining stock of wheat stored by the state was 18.24 million-19.24 million tons, including 2.977 million tons in Jiangsu, 5.293 million tons in Anhui, 9.391 million tons in Henan and 1.447 million tons in Hubei.

The effective supply capacity of new wheat is weakening.

The circulation market has gradually entered a phased tight supply and demand pattern, which will promote the change of the purchasing and selling mentality of the market main body. In the case of abundant wheat supply in the national temporary storage, it is difficult for grain prices in the circulation market to rise sharply, wheat prices will gradually return to policy prices, and changes in wheat market prices will affect the buying and selling psychology of the main body of the market. it will also have an indirect impact on the supply and demand of the wheat market.

The national temporary storage wheat auction will still be the main channel of grain supply in the later stage. In the later stage, the trend of the domestic wheat market still depends on the policy face, and it is suggested that we should pay close attention to the adjustment of the minimum purchase price of wheat in the new year and the market opportunities of wheat regions and varieties.