In 2015, the growth rate of imported miscellaneous grains replacing corn is expected to reach 108%

In 2014, China imported 16.6 million tons of sorghum, barley and DDGS (dry distiller's grains), and the total import of these products is expected to reach 30 million tons in 2015, an increase of 81 percent. Excluding some of the barley used for brewing, the above imports are expected to replace 22.66 million tons of feed corn in 2015, an increase of 11.78 million tons, or 108 per cent, year-on-year.

The number of miscellaneous grains replacing corn continues to grow.

According to customs data, China imported 42900 tons of corn in October, down 74.73 percent from the previous month and 62.45 percent from the same period last year. At present, the corn quota for 2015 has basically been used up, and only sporadic corn is left to Hong Kong at a later stage. Imports of corn for the whole of 2015 are expected to be 4.6 million tons, an increase of 77 per cent over the same period last year. As imported miscellaneous grains are not subject to quota restrictions, the number of imported miscellaneous grains in October is still relatively large.

China imported 681900 tons of sorghum in October, compared with 1.0767 million tons last month and 678800 tons in the same period last year. More than 2 million tons of sorghum will still arrive in Hong Kong in the next two months, and the total amount of sorghum imported in 2015 is expected to be 11 million tons, an increase of 90 percent over the same period last year.

China imported 660200 tons of DDGS (dry distiller's grains) in October, 933500 tons last month and 117800 tons in the same period last year. About 1.1 million tons of DDGS (dry distiller's grains) will still arrive in Hong Kong in the next two months, and imports for the whole year are expected to be 7 million tons, an increase of 29 percent over the same period last year.

China imported 998400 tons of barley in October and 1.2953 million tons in November. It is estimated that barley imports for the whole of 2015 are 12 million tons, an increase of 122 percent over the same period last year, of which forage barley is estimated to be 9 million tons, an increase of 270 percent over the same period last year.

It is expected that the corn in North China will decline slightly in the later stage.

On November 25, the factory price of standard moisture corn in Weifang deep processing enterprises in Shandong Province was 1980 yuan to 2040 yuan per ton, with ups and downs. Xingtai, Hebei Province, 1840 yuan to 1900 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan to 60 yuan per ton compared with November 17-22; Hebi, Henan Province, 1840 yuan to 1880 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton.

Affected by the rain and snow weather, grain enterprises flexibly adjust the purchase price of corn according to the volume of arrival.

Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center shows that as of November 25, the progress of grain sales by farmers in Shandong was 31%, 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year; the progress of grain sales in Henan was 30%, 1% faster than the same period last year; and the progress of grain sales in Hebei was 18%, 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The overall progress of grain sales in North China has reached 27%, which is basically the same as last year. In the early stage, the price of corn in North China was low, especially in Shandong and Henan provinces.

Affected by rain and snow in the past month, the progress of grain sales slowed down. As the weather clears up at the end of November and the beginning of December, farmers will speed up the progress of grain sales, when a large number of corn will be on the market, which will suppress the price to a certain extent. In addition, the price of corn in North China has risen since November, and the price advantage of corn in the sales area is weaker than that in the northeast, which will reduce the demand for corn transportation in North China in the later period.

There is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand of corn, and under the influence of multiple negative factors, there is a greater risk of falling corn prices in North China in the later stage. On the other hand, grain enterprises in North China are generally in a state of low inventory, and there will be a strong demand for replenishment after the weather improves, and there will be a certain support for corn prices. Overall, it is expected that the price of corn in North China will fall slightly in the later period.

It is expected that the corn in Northeast China will rise steadily in the later period.

On November 25, the corn purchase price of Zhaodong Deep processing Enterprises in Heilongjiang Province was 1730 yuan to 1790 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan to 60 yuan per ton compared with last week, and 1840 yuan to 1900 yuan per ton in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, up 20 yuan to 40 yuan per ton.

Changchun, Jilin Province, 1880 yuan to 1920 yuan per ton, Liaoning Kaiyuan 1930 yuan to 1950 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan per ton. Temporary storage acquisition and weather support the price of corn in Northeast China.

Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center shows that as of November 25, the progress of grain sales by farmers in Heilongjiang was 20%, 5% slower than the same period last year, 13% in Jilin, 3% slower than the same period last year, 16% in Inner Mongolia, 3% slower than the same period last year, and 24% in Liaoning, 5% slower than the same period last year. Considering the huge supply pressure in the corn market, the rise of corn prices in Northeast China is limited in the later stage, and the temporary storage price is likely to be the top price.

Reduced arrival boosts prices of north and south ports

On November 26, the mainstream purchase price of Liaoning corn within 15% moisture, more than 700g per liter and less than 3% mildew rate in Liaoning Bayuquan port was 2010 yuan to 2030 yuan per ton, and the theoretical flat price was 2050 yuan to 2080 yuan per ton. each ton is up 30 yuan compared with last week; the mainstream purchase price of Liaoning corn in Jinzhou port is 2020 yuan to 2030 yuan per ton, and the theoretical flat price is 2060 yuan to 2080 yuan per ton, with an increase of 30 yuan to 40 yuan per ton. The snowfall in the producing area affects the arrival of corn in the northern port, the price difference between the port and the producing area is small, and the traders' profits are meagre, which all lead to the reduction of corn arrival in the northern port. In this case, traders have to raise prices to buy corn.

14.5% moisture in the port of Shenzhen, Guangdong, the transaction price of Liaoji high-quality corn was 2150 yuan to 2170 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from last week, while Hebei corn was 2080 yuan to 2100 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan to 60 yuan per ton. The price difference between northeast and North China corn in Guangdong port is 70 yuan per ton, which is 20-40 yuan less than last week and 150-170 yuan per ton in early November.

The price advantage of corn in Northeast China is gradually restored, which will increase the market share of Northeast corn in the southern sales area in the future. At present, Guangdong port inventory is low, as of November 25, the port corn inventory is only 148000 tons, down 58000 tons from last week. With the decrease in the arrival of goods at the port and the recovery of the willingness of feed enterprises to replenish goods, traders have raised their quotations for corn.