Investigation on seed production under the influence of El Nino

Recently, there is a saying on the Internet that this year's El Ni ñ o phenomenon has had a serious impact on seed production in the north, and seed production in Gansu, especially in many parts of Xinjiang, is low or even no harvest. A large-scale reduction in seed production in northern China will lead to a substantial increase in seed prices next year. Is this really the case? The reporter interviewed the seed management departments of Xinjiang and Zhangye in Gansu and the large and medium-sized seed enterprises in Heilongjiang and asked them to give the real situation of seed production this year.

Gansu Province

The seed supply of bulk varieties showed an increasing trend, although the yield decreased, but the supply did not decrease.

According to Su Jiandong, deputy director in charge of seeds of Gansu Zhangye Agricultural Bureau, in 2015, Zhangye maize seed production area was 971800 mu, involving 59 corn seed production companies and 529 variety combinations. In mid-late July, El Nino weather affected the normal pollination of mid-and late-maturing varieties (combinations) to varying degrees, and diseases and insect pests were common in maize seed production fields, and the average mu yield was expected to be reduced by more than 25%.

Zhang Wenbo of Zhangye seed Administration described in detail how El Ni ñ o affects seed production. He said that the middle and last ten days of July was the critical period for male pollination, and the El Ni ñ o phenomenon reduced the pollen vitality of the male parent in the seed production corn field, and the filaments of the female ear of the female parent were dehydrated and dried, which affected the pollination and fruiting, and the situation of bald ear and flower ear of corn was more serious. Among the 59 maize seed production enterprises in the city, 54 were affected to varying degrees, and 283 maize hybrid seed production varieties (combinations) were greatly affected, covering an area of 383900 mu. It is estimated that the average yield per mu will be reduced by 105 kg or 23.3% compared with the normal year (the average yield is 450 kg). Corn seed production in the city is 971800 mu, with an average yield reduction of 41.4kg per mu, a decrease of 9.2%, and an estimated reduction of about 40.2325 million kg. In terms of diseases and insect pests, corn seed production bases, corn rust, red spiders and other diseases and insect pests affected the normal growth of plants, and corn seed production showed premature senescence, which is expected to decrease by more than 15%, the average mu yield is reduced by about 67.5kg, and the total yield is reduced by 65.5965 million kg.

In spite of this, Zhangye is expected to supply 460.2465 million kilograms of seeds to the whole country. According to the survey, the seed production output this year is about 327.8925 million kilograms, and by the end of June, the city's seed stock is 132.264 million kilograms. When the two are added together, the seed supply quantity also exceeds the annual seed production capacity of 450 million kilograms.

More importantly, this year, Zhengdan 958, Jingke 968, Liyu 16, Liyu 88 and other bulk varieties (combinations) seed production area more than doubled than in previous years, Longping 206, Xianyu 335 production area are the same as in previous years, and have a certain amount of inventory, as far as Zhangye is concerned, the seed supply of bulk varieties showed an increasing trend, although the output decreased, but the supply of bulk varieties did not decrease. As for the seed supply price, as the late-maturing small varieties (combinations) planted in specific areas are greatly affected, it is expected that there will be a structural shortage and the price will rise to a certain extent.

Xinjiang

There will be no serious problems of shortage of seeds and rising prices in the seed market next year.

The reporter contacted the Xinjiang seed Management Station and learned that seed production was affected, but it was not as serious as it was said on the Internet.

From mid-July to early August this year, the high temperature weather of 40 ℃ or even more than 45 ℃ in Xinjiang lasted for 20 days. In such high temperature weather, the pollen vitality was low. It is estimated that the area with 15% reduction in production in Xinjiang accounts for 50%, the area with 30% reduction accounts for about 40%, and the area of no harvest is less than 5%. Although the output is less than all the year round, but the specific situation is still relatively optimistic. On the one hand, Xinjiang has a seed stock that is basically stable at 190000 tons a year. On the other hand, many varieties of seed production areas drip irrigation and other more advanced agricultural facilities, these places, El Ni ñ o has little effect on seed production. In addition, there are many similar varieties on the market at present, which can be replaced by each other. In addition, Xinjiang has increased its seed production area by 200000 mu this year, accounting for 20% of the total seed production area. In this way, there will be no serious problems of shortage of seeds and rising prices in the seed market next year.

With regard to the protection of the interests of seed production farmers, the relevant person in charge of the main station said: seed production enterprises and seed production farmers have signed contracts, and insurance can reduce farmers' losses when disasters occur, but high temperatures and droughts like this year are not within the scope of insurance claims. Enterprises also need to pay farmers' income according to the contract, so the interests of enterprises will be affected.

Seed enterprise

On the whole, the seed yield is 10% to 15% lower than expected, which is completely within the normal reduction range.

Kenfeng seed industry is the largest seed enterprise in northeast China. According to the person in charge of the production department of Kenfeng seed industry: due to the short growth period of Kenfeng's main maize variety Demeiya 1, although the seed production area of Northwest Base affected by dry and hot wind has generally reduced this year, the seed production of Demeya 1 has been affected very little.

In the Yili region of Xinjiang, the emasculating work of Demiya No. 1 was completed at the end of June, and seed production decreased by 5% to 10%. In Tacheng area of Xinjiang, the plots with early sowing are not affected, while those with late sowing are reduced by 10% to 20%.

In Gansu and Inner Mongolia bases, compared with last year's output, except for the poor fruiting of Tiaoshan Farm and the performance of reduced production, the output of Huangyanghe base and Inner Mongolia base was higher than that of last year, and the output of the whole base was reduced by less than 5%.

At the Heilongjiang base, Demia 1 was not affected.

From the perspective of the company as a whole, seed production is 10% to 15% lower than expected, which is completely within the normal reduction range.

Hetian Fengze Xingnong Science and Technology Development Company is a medium-sized enterprise in Heilongjiang. Xin Kejiang, the sales manager of the company, said that they have independent intellectual property rights varieties such as Hetian and Fengdan, and the corn seeds produced by the company are supplied in all cities and counties in the province. The planting area is more than 40 million mu. The seed production bases of Hetian Fengze in Gansu and Xinjiang are 6000 and 3000 mu respectively. Due to the use of drip irrigation, the seed production yield has not been affected much. A few years ago, Hetian Fengze had more than 1 million jin of seeds in stock every year, but it has not been found in the past two years. That is because farmers have a high degree of recognition of Hetian 1 and 4. Xin Kejiang said that there are many varieties in the third accumulated temperate zone, but not many have been widely recognized. Due to the low temperature during the sowing time, many varieties will have the phenomenon of powdered seeds. The price of varieties that have never seen flour seeds may rise slightly.

With regard to the impact of planting area adjustment on seed demand, Xinkejiang analysis shows that the latitude of Heilongjiang is the same as that of some major wheat producing areas in Canada. Canadian flour is world-famous, and Heilongjiang should also be able to produce the same high quality wheat and flour. The state adjusts the planting area of corn in high latitudes, in addition to adjusting grain corn for grain and bean rotation and grain feeding. Expanding the area of high-quality spring wheat is also one of the ways to adjust the structure.