Global rapeseed production reduction is basically determined not to be overly bearish on rapeseed meal

Although autumn is coming, the aquaculture industry will enter the final stage, and the consumption of rapeseed will weaken, but because the oil factories are on the verge of losing money, the number of rapeseed coming to Hong Kong has decreased, and as the National Day holiday is approaching, the production enthusiasm of domestic oil factories is not high, and the supply of domestic rapeseed meal is tight. In addition, the stock of domestic rapeseed is not much, and factories in Anhui, Hubei and other places have stopped collecting. Under the condition of the coexistence of low inventory and off-season consumption, it is difficult for domestic rapeseed meal to appear unilateral market, so it is not appropriate to be too bearish on rapeseed meal price.

Global rapeseed production reduction is basically determined.

Global rapeseed production is expected to be 62.5 million tons in 2015 and 2016, a decrease of 5.4 million tons from the previous year and a four-year low, according to German media data. Of this total, rapeseed production in the European Union is expected to be 21.5 million tons, down from 24.3 million tons last year; Canada's 14.1 million tons, down from 16 million tons; China's 10 million tons, down from 11 million tons; India's 6.5 million tons, up from 5.1 million tons; and Australia's 3.46 million tons.

Commerzbank also expects dry weather to reduce rapeseed production in the European Union and Canada, and the global rapeseed inventory ratio could fall to 6%, the lowest level in 12 years. Due to the tight global supply, rapeseed prices can relieve some of the downward pressure on international soybean prices, which is relatively beneficial to the rapeseed meal market.

The purchase of rapeseed is reduced and the opening rate of oil plant is low.

With the closing date of the market acquisition approaching, manufacturers are less willing to buy rapeseed. The processing of domestic oil plants is unprofitable, and the operating rate of the factory is at a relatively low 26%, 29%. According to statistics, as of September 20, various grain enterprises in nine major producing areas, including Sichuan and Hubei, had purchased 1.52 million tons of newly produced rapeseed, a decrease of 1.95 million tons over the same period last year. The lower operating rate also makes the supply of rapeseed meal less for a long time, which has a certain supporting effect on rapeseed meal.

Rapeseed meal will be purchased and sold as the festival approaches.

With the arrival of autumn, the temperature is gradually decreasing, aquaculture is gradually coming to an end, and rapeseed meal consumption will also be affected. However, it is worth noting that some oil plants in Fujian, Guangxi and other places have stopped production, coupled with the approaching of the festival, most enterprises such as grain and oil in the East China Sea plan to shut down for more than 10 days, and the supply of rapeseed meal is relatively small, which will provide some support to the rapeseed meal market.

On the whole, due to the abundant supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and the weakening demand for rapeseed meal, the price of rapeseed meal is under short-term pressure, but in the general environment of reduced international rapeseed production, rapeseed meal is supported by the strong fundamentals of low inventory and low opening probability, therefore, should not be overly bearish on rapeseed meal price.