Is it more or less to increase grain in all three quantities? Is there any way to crack it?

China's summer grain has achieved "twelve consecutive harvests" this year. Last year, China's grain production remained stable at more than 1.2 trillion jin for two consecutive years. At the same time, grain imports exceeded the 100 million ton mark for the first time. Grain imports in the first seven months of this year were 72.568 million tons, an increase of 22.4 percent over the same period last year. This makes it difficult for many people to understand why grain imports keep rising while grain production has been increasing year after year.

China's grain production, inventory and import show the phenomenon of "simultaneous increase of three quantities". Why did this happen? Is there more or less grain? How to resolve the adverse effects of the problem? The reporter interviewed the relevant responsible persons and relevant experts of the Ministry of Agriculture in this regard.

The adjustment of varieties and the huge price difference at home and abroad lead to the increase of imports.

A person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture said that variety adjustment and low international grain prices were the main factors contributing to the rise in imports. In recent years, most of China's imports are domestic shortage of soybeans, mainly to meet the increasing demand for edible vegetable oil and protein feed. Last year, soybean imports were 71.4 million tons, an increase of 12.7 percent over the same period last year. At the same time, China has also imported some grain varieties, with a net import of more than 18.7 million tons, an increase of 38% over the same period last year, mainly barley and sorghum, which are used for wine and feed.

"the increase in imports is not due to our lack of food, but mainly due to the huge price gap between domestic and foreign grain prices." Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that since 2004, China has implemented the policy of minimum purchase price and temporary purchase and storage, so as to increase farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and stabilize grain production. With the gradual rise of the purchase price, the price of the domestic grain market rises with the rising tide. However, in recent years, the price of grain in the international market has turned downwards, and the price of agricultural products at home and abroad has become increasingly obvious. Since 2012, domestic grain prices have gradually begun to be higher than those in the international market.

At present, the prices of domestic staple agricultural products are all higher than those in the international market. by the first half of this year, the prices of staple grains such as rice, wheat and corn all exceeded 50% of the international market, and the import customs value of staple agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar was roughly 1000 yuan per ton lower than that of domestic products. as a result, imports such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar continue to increase, resulting in the phenomenon of "import, backlog", "foreign goods entering the market and domestic goods entering the warehouse".

The "simultaneous increase of three quantities" reflects the weak competitiveness of China's agriculture.

"the phenomenon of 'simultaneous increase in three quantities' is a new situation under the new normal. Such a situation has its inevitability. Some domestic varieties do need to be imported, but the fundamental reason is that international competition is becoming more and more fierce and China's agricultural competitiveness is not strong. " A relevant responsible person of the Ministry of Agriculture said that the tariff level of China's agricultural products is only 1x4 of the world average, and it is one of the countries with the highest degree of agricultural openness in the world. With the deepening of opening up to the outside world, especially the construction and development of free trade zones between China and ASEAN, New Zealand and Australia, the domestic market and the international market will be further integrated, and the degree of agricultural openness will be further improved.

"in the future, we will face competition not only from developed countries with rich agricultural resources and a high level of agricultural modernization, but also from developing countries with obvious labor advantages. On the other hand, the production costs of domestic agricultural products are still on the rising channel, with rising land rental, labor costs and machinery operating costs, and grain and other agricultural products lack price advantages. " The person in charge said.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that international agricultural prices have fallen, imports have increased, and pressure on domestic grain stocks has increased. This has a great impact on China's market, which will directly narrow the space for domestic prices to rise, and the production of domestic agricultural products will further face the double squeeze of price "ceiling" and cost "floor", resulting in a decline in comparative efficiency. If development is allowed, farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and national food security will be deeply affected, which will have a negative impact on the healthy development of China's agricultural industry, farmers' employment and farmers' income growth.

The fundamental way is to speed up the transformation of China's agricultural development mode.

Is there any way to crack the "simultaneous increase of three quantities"?

"the fundamental way is to unswervingly accelerate the transformation of the mode of agricultural development." A relevant responsible person of the Ministry of Agriculture said that the key is to achieve the "three changes" in the direction, that is, to promote agricultural development from quantitative growth to equal emphasis on quantity and quality benefits. from relying mainly on material inputs to relying on scientific and technological innovation and improving the quality of workers, and from extensive management dependent on resource consumption to sustainable development. The focus is on the five aspects of "expanding the scale, adjusting the structure, strengthening the industry, sustainable and improving quality".

To expand the scale is to cultivate a new type of main body, improve the service system, and speed up the development of appropriate scale operation. We will actively guide and support the development and growth of new business entities such as large farmers, family farms, farmers' cooperatives and leading enterprises, and strive to improve the socialized service system of agriculture and improve the economies of scale of production.

Restructuring is to meet the needs of the market, give full play to the advantages of resources, and speed up the adjustment of agricultural structure. Scientifically examine the potential of domestic agricultural resources and rationally arrange the production priority of agricultural products. We should resolutely protect arable land, ensure the self-sufficient level of food rations, and ensure food security by "storing grain in the land" and "storing grain in technology". As a result, we will promote the overall planning of grain economy and feeding, the integration of planting and breeding, and the combination of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, so as to achieve coordinated development.

To strengthen the industry is to improve the industrial chain, ensure quality and safety, and speed up the improvement of the comprehensive efficiency of agriculture. With a view to promoting the integrated development of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, it is necessary to vigorously promote the industrialized operation of agriculture, speed up the development of intensive processing of agricultural products, extend the industrial chain, and increase the income of the whole agricultural industrial chain.

Sustainable means to strengthen the protection of resources, strengthen ecological construction, and accelerate the sustainable development of agriculture. Increase the protection of cultivated land, water and other resources; gradually reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides; develop ecological agriculture, green agriculture, circular agriculture, and promote the utilization of agricultural wastes such as straw, livestock and poultry manure and plastic film, so as to turn waste into treasure and comprehensive utilization.

To improve quality is to promote scientific and technological innovation and infrastructure construction, cultivate professional farmers, and speed up the realization of innovation-driven agricultural development. We will vigorously promote agricultural scientific and technological innovation and promote the transformation and application of agricultural scientific and technological achievements. Strengthen water conservancy construction, improve the effective irrigation rate of farmland, speed up the transformation of medium-and low-yield fields, and constantly improve the comprehensive production capacity of grain and agriculture.

Li Guoxiang suggested that in view of the "simultaneous increase in three quantities", agricultural support and protection policies should be adjusted to allow the market to play a greater role, minimize the distortions caused by price support policies to the market, and reverse the phenomenon of price upside down. At the same time, we will severely crack down on the smuggling of grain and other agricultural products to better maintain market stability and protect the interests of farmers.