Under the new policy of temporary storage, the corn market is in full swing.

1 yuan / jin or price ceiling

A the growth of soybean and corn is slightly lower than that of last year.

"the corn yield this year is slightly lower than that of last year, mainly because the corn yield was very high last year." Zhang Xin, a buyer in Xigangzi Town, Heihe City, said.

According to Li Wei, a farmer in Suihua, due to too much Rain Water, low accumulated temperature and late sowing in this area this year, the per unit yield of corn is expected to be lower than that of last year. "Last year, the corn harvest was good, mainly because of the continuous good weather of rain at night and sunny days, which was extremely beneficial to the growth of corn."

According to a peasant household in Keyinhe Township, Suileng County, the per unit yield of soybean is good this year, because the weather in this area is good, there is no drought or waterlogging, the per unit yield is estimated to be about 300 jin / mu, and the protein quality is also good. However, the farmers who grow corn can be described as "ten households with nine compensation." "there is a large area of lodging of corn in our village, and it is estimated that the per unit yield this year is only about 10,000 jin / kg, compared with 23000 jin / kg last year."

It is understood that corn and soybean acreage in the region accounted for about half last year, but this year corn acreage has risen to 90%, while soyabean planting has dropped to 10%.

In the survey, the reporter learned that the early growth of soybeans in some areas is not as good as that in previous years. Chen Yingjian, general manager of Hailun Chengrui Industry and Trade Co., Ltd., said that due to the low accumulated temperature during this year's growth period, there were no pods at the bottom of the soybean 15-20cm, while the top grain was not full enough, and there was the phenomenon of green beans. The soybean yield this year is expected to be 4500 jin / kg, which is about 10% lower than last year.

Zhou Wei, a soybean grower in Nehe area, also told Futures Daily that according to the soybean output that has been harvested in Nehe area, the real estate is 3800Mui 4000 jin. "the output is lower than last year, but compared with the output of previous years, this year is not bad."

"this year is a bit dry, and soybean production is expected to be slightly lower than last year. The soybean output last year was about 4000 jin / kg, and this year's soybean output is estimated to be 3,500 jin / kg. " The person in charge of a cooperative in Sunwu County, Heihe City said.

According to a relevant person in charge of the agricultural department of Qiqihar City, the local weather in April and May this year was not very good, mainly because of low temperature and rainy weather, which made it impossible to cultivate the fields; in June, there was a drought in some places, such as the south of the Longjiang River. later, there was also the situation of "no rain across the road".

"the total precipitation this year is about the same as in previous years, but the distribution of precipitation is uneven. Where Rain Water is abundant, corn is growing well, on the contrary, it may not grow very well. In addition, the corncob is relatively small this year, and it is not yet fully mature, and the maturity is 5 days later than usual. " The person in charge introduced.

Guotai Junan futures analyst Wu Guangjing said that due to different geographical locations, the growth of soybeans and corn varies from place to place. Corn production is expected to decline slightly compared with last year, and soybean production is basically the same as last year.

During the research period, the corn along the way has not yet been harvested, while the early-maturing soybeans have basically been harvested. A few days ago, the reporter once again contacted farmers and traders visiting along the way to learn that the harvest progress of this year is later than that of last year. At present, due to the overcast and rainy weather, the corn harvest is less than 20%. If the weather is fine in the later stage, corn and soybeans will enter the centralized harvest period.

"the corn on our side has not been harvested yet, and the soybean harvest is already more than halfway through. Judging from the soybeans that have been harvested so far, the total output of this year may not be as good as that of last year. " Li Xing, a farmer in Suihua, told Futures Daily.

"We had sporadic Lesser Snow here a few days ago, and it has been cloudy these two days. The farmers around us have harvested adzuki beans first, but the soybeans have not yet been harvested." Zhou Wei, a soybean grower in Nehe area, told reporters.

Most farmers and traders believe that although it is not as good as last year, soybeans and corn are still prolific this year. However, for farmers, high yield does not mean a good harvest.

B the temporary storage price of corn will decline for the first time. Farmers' income will shrink.

This year, the national temporary storage corn acquisition policy in Northeast China was introduced on September 18. According to the policy, this year, the national temporary storage corn listing purchase price (national standard third-class quality standard, the same below) is 1 yuan / jin, and the price difference between adjacent grades is 0.02 yuan per jin. Last year, the purchase price was 1.13 yuan per jin in Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, 1.12 yuan per jin in Jilin and 1.11 yuan per jin in Heilongjiang. It is worth mentioning that corn harvest and storage prices fell for the first time since 2008.

After the decline in corn harvest and storage prices this year, many traders said they would lower the weighing price accordingly. "the price of wet corn this year is generally about 0.1 yuan per jin lower than that of last year. In most areas, the price of wet corn is 0.6 million yuan per jin, and the price of standard moisture corn is 0.75 million yuan per jin, that is, 1500 million yuan 1630 yuan per ton. Compared with last year, earnings have decreased. " Wang Qiang, a farmer in Qiqihar, said.

The reporter found that not only the opening price of corn is lower than that of last year, traders are also more cautious about the opening price of soybeans.

The person in charge of a small squeeze enterprise in Suihua told the reporter that he was more cautious about the price estimate of the new bean scale this year, and the weighing price needed to refer to the situation of the protein factory in the south. "Last year, the purchase price of soybeans was about 2.2 yuan / jin. If the price of soybeans exceeds 2.06 yuan / jin this year, they will not be purchased." Li Xia, a trader in the tribal village of Keyinhe Township, Suileng County, told reporters that the opening price of soybeans in the region last year was 2.3 yuan per jin, and this year it was maintained only a few days before the market, and then all the way down. On September 21, the price of local soybeans was 2.04 yuan / jin, while the price after screening was as low as 1.8 yuan / jin.

In the survey, the reporter found that the price of weighing is not optimistic and does not affect the enthusiasm of farmers to sell, the current enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain is high, but the enthusiasm of traders to buy is not high. It is understood that because the moisture content of new beans is high, and traders' expectations for prices are relatively low, it is generally believed that the spot price of soybeans will be less than 2 yuan / jin. Therefore, they do not have the intention to buy new beans until 1.95 yuan / jin.

The head of a cooperative in Sunwu County, Heihe City, said that he was more worried about the sales situation of new beans this year, and that he would lose money if the price of soybeans was less than 2.2 yuan. The reporter found that the price of soybeans in the region during the research period was about 1.97 yuan / jin.

In fact, people in the industry are not optimistic about the opening price of corn and soybeans this year. A staff member of a reserve grain depot in Nenjiang County believes that the opening price of soybeans this year is expected to be about 2 yuan per jin, and the lowest price cannot be ruled out as 1.852 per jin; it is estimated that the harvest and storage price of corn this year will be 1 yuan per jin as the top price. "whether from the psychological expectations of farmers, or the acquisition expectations of traders, as well as the expectations of people in related industries, the prices of soybeans and corn are more pessimistic this year, and the price center of gravity has shifted downward. At the same time, there are many people who hold the view that the temporary storage price is the top area of corn price this year. " Guotai Junan Futures Industry Service Research Institute Wu Guangjing said.

Although the state has reduced the temporary storage price of corn, most farmers are still willing to plant corn because the income from planting corn is still higher than that of soybeans. A small number of farmers said they would observe whether to plant soybeans or corn next year.

Tang Qingxia, an analyst of Jiangxi Ruiqi Futures Agricultural products, calculated an account for the reporter. Taking corn and soybeans from Suihua and Qiqihar as examples, the total cost of corn planting in Suihua City is about 12320 yuan per hectare, with a yield of 25000 jin of wet corn per hectare, with a unit price of 0.6 yuan per hectares. after deducting the cost, the net profit is 2680 yuan per hectare, while the planting profit of soybeans is only 737 yuan per hectare. The corn planting cost in Qiqihar is 12495 yuan per hectare, the per unit yield is 14175 jin, the standard grain price is 1 yuan per jin, the production income is 14175 yuan per hectare, the net profit of corn is 1680 yuan per hectare, and the soybean planting profit is negative. 2475 yuan per hectare.

"in the case of no fundamental change in soybean and corn planting income, there will be no significant change in soybean and corn planting structure next year, and the possibility of another sharp decline in soybean acreage is very low, and the possibility of area rebound cannot be ruled out." Wu Guangjing said.

C downstream demand is weak and the operating pressure of processing enterprises is only increasing.

At present, the situation of domestic soybean oil crushing plants is very different, most of the oil factories have gone bankrupt and withdrew from the market, but there are also oil plants with rich income, the current production capacity can no longer meet the market demand, and has begun to actively increase its production capacity. A pressing oil enterprise in Heilongjiang is the latter. It is understood that the enterprise uses locally produced non-GM soybeans as raw materials and uses the physical pressing method. Residents of the area have become accustomed to eating soybean oil by physical pressing, and most of them purchase the products of the enterprise. Driven by market demand and huge profits, enterprises began to expand their production capacity this year, from 200000-300000 tons last year to 1 million tons.

The enterprise mainly sells 5L small packages, with soybean oil yield less than 11%, soybean cake oil content 6% Mui 8%, and meal yield 80%. The price of 5L soybean oil in small package is 118 yuan (promotion 108). Bean cakes are used for export and local breeding, and the price is 3800mur4000 yuan / ton. According to a rough estimate, according to the soybean cost of 4000 yuan / ton, the enterprise's crushing profit per ton of soybean is around 1000 yuan / ton.

Of course, enterprises like this are still a minority, and most of the small oil crushing plants are at a disadvantage, and some of them suffer heavy losses and are on the verge of bankruptcy. In the future, with the gradual deregulation of genetically modified food, foreign genetically modified soybeans will further impact the domestic market, and the situation of domestic soybean oil plants is not optimistic.

Judging from the situation of relevant enterprises in the soybean processing industry chain, the sales of small oil crushing plants that crush non-GM soybeans are better, while the sales of soybean oil and soybean meal in large oil plants are generally, especially the consumption of soybean oil is weak. There is also little difference in the price between non-GM soybean oil and GM soybean oil.