He Xuefeng: is "unmanned farming" a real problem?

During the National Day holiday, the author went to Sheyang County, Jiangsu Province to investigate "joint farming" and made a lot of interesting discoveries. Sheyang County according to the superior deployment statistics of the county's farming area of more than 30 mu of farmers, in order to transfer 20% of the previous subsidies to support these new agricultural operators. Sheyang County originally counted more than 50 mu of moderate scale operation according to the requirements of superiors, but there were too few farmers with an area of more than 50 mu, so it was changed to statistical farming of more than 30 mu of farmers.

Indeed, in the rural areas of Sheyang County, the vast majority of young and middle-aged workers have gone out to work and do business, and most of the people who stay in the village for agriculture are over 55 years old, and some village groups even have very few agricultural workers under the age of 60. From this point of view, the aging of the agricultural labor force, who will farm in the future may really be a big problem.

So, is it a real question who will farm? Let's take a look at the situation in Sheyang County.

Sheyang County began to promote "co-cultivation" since 2013, that is, through voluntary consultation organizations of farmers, breaking the ridges of individual fields, changing multiple households in one field into multiple households per mu, unified cultivated land and sowing by cooperative organizations, farmers are responsible for field management links such as fertilizer and water management and pest control, and large-scale planting has been realized on the premise of retaining farmers' operational autonomy, thus solving the problems of difficult agricultural technology popularization and agricultural machinery operation. In particular, the technical and physical difficulties faced by the elderly and women in farming have been solved. Because "joint farming" can solve the problem of farming for the elderly and women, farmers who previously transferred their contracted land at a low price to relatives and neighbors are willing to take back the contracted land for self-cultivation. The recovery of contracted land for self-cultivation has occurred in almost every village group that carries out "co-cultivation". In Group 8 of Sanhe Village, Haihe Town, Lu Shengxiu, a 62-year-old woman, transferred more than seven mu of contracted land to her husband and brother Dai Wang for farming with 300 yuan per mu. After co-farming and co-planting, Lu Shengxiu recovered the contracted land for self-cultivation, because self-planting can have an income of 1300 yuan per mu, and more than seven mu of land can earn more than 7000 yuan a year. Dai Wang is 58 years old and in good health, which is a good age for farming. He has 10 mu of responsible land, plus the land transferred by Lu Shengxiu and other farmers, has more than 20 mu, and his annual agricultural income is more than 20,000 yuan. in addition, he has small agricultural machinery and can provide agricultural machinery services. with an annual income of about 10,000 yuan, plus the income from fishing for fish and shrimp, his annual income is about 40,000 yuan, which is no less than that of migrant workers. Now that Lu Shengxiu has taken the land back, Daiwang has only more than 10 mu of land, and "joint farming" mainly uses large horsepower agricultural machinery, and the small horsepower agricultural machinery he bought before will no longer have the opportunity to show his ability, so his annual income has dropped sharply. As a result, he has become a strong opponent of "joint farming."

In Sheyang County, there are a large number of farmers like Dai Wang who are willing to farm, want to flow into the land and have the ability to plant good land, but there are too few fields that can be planted. If there is no field, he will be strongly dissatisfied with the resumption of the inflow of land.

During the research in Sheyang County, we counted the basic situation of three village groups of farmers, among which there were more than 70 households in Sanhe Village, with 600 mu of arable land, and only five households actually planted land of more than 30 mu. These five households all have a business scale of more than 30 mu through the flow of land into relatives and neighbors, of which four households mainly transfer the contracted land of their brothers who work and do business in the city, and one household mainly transfers the contracted land of their neighbors. The heads of these five households are between 48 and 59 years old, with a cultivated land area of 30,055 mu. Basically, each household has small agricultural machinery. With agricultural income plus small agricultural machinery income, the annual net income of each household is more than 50,000 yuan. For example, Zou Qiyang, 48, the whole family of two brothers went to work in the city, and all the contracted land was transferred. Two neighbors went to the city, and the land was transferred, so there were 50 mu of land and 19 pieces of land. Zou spent 70,000 yuan to buy a large harvester, which is not only for his own use, but also for operation. He can earn 70,000 yuan from harvesting in two seasons a year, and spent 10,000 yuan to buy a small rice transplanter, which is mainly for his own use and manages by the way, and is equipped with walking tractors and other agricultural machinery. In addition to agriculture, he uses his spare time to go out to work for five to eight months a year. He says it is mainly for rest and recuperation, and he can earn 20,000 yuan in five or six months. Over the course of a year, the income of planting 50 mu of land is 80, 000 yuan, the operating income of agricultural machinery is 70, 000 yuan, and the income of working is 20, 000 yuan, and the annual income is about 170000 yuan. This income is also relatively high in the local area, which is also matched by the fact that he is still farming at the age of 48.

The rent of Zou Qiyang's contracted land is 400 yuan per mu, and his brother's land does not pay rent, but the whole family eats and stays in his home every Spring Festival without paying, and when they leave, they have to give different amounts of rice, eggs and other local specialties. When there are more brothers and are in their prime, each family has contracted land, and each contracted land is not large enough, and it is impossible to obtain the basic income to maintain family reproduction in rural areas only by planting its own contracted land, so it is necessary to go to the city to work and do business. so the contracted land is transferred to brothers who are willing to farm at home and take care of their elderly parents at the same time.

From our statistics of about 170 households in three village groups, we find that all farmers who only grow their own contracted land and do not flow into the land and have no other sources of income are people over the age of 55. Some farmers under the age of 55 have gone to the cities to work and do business, and the labor force under the age of 55 who remains in the countryside must flow into the land from other farmers, or have other sideline income, and only grow their own contracted land, and the agricultural income is too limited. It is difficult to reach the bottom line of income to maintain the local basic living, so they have to go out to work and do business. In other words, the reason why farmers go out to work and do business is that they are unable to get more land for farming because of the lack of income opportunities in rural areas. If there are opportunities for income in rural areas, farmers are willing to stay in rural areas to engage in agricultural production.

In Sheyang County, the rural labor force under the age of 55 is all young and middle-aged labor force, and these young and middle-aged labor force all have relatively high income expectations, whether they are farming, engaging in rural sideline, or going to the city to work and do business. they all have an expected income level that they have a local consensus. If they can get it from farming or sideline, they do not have to go to the city to work and do business. If they cannot get this expected income from the countryside, they will have to go to the city to work and do business, otherwise they will become lazy people who are looked down upon by the local people. These farmers who go to cities to work and do business, especially those over 45 years old, will come back sooner or later. The older they are, the lower the requirements for their expected income and the fewer opportunities to work and do business from the city, so there will be a balance: the income of working in the city is roughly equal to the income of their own contracted land. this equilibrium point is currently between the ages of 55 and 60.

This is interesting. The more farmers who work in cities and do not farm, the more farmers who stay in their villages to farm, thus have more agricultural and sideline income, and can retain farmers with higher and younger incomes than expected to farm at home. The more opportunities for working and doing business in cities, the greater the income, the more farmers, including older ones, can be attracted to the cities, thus enabling older farmers of the same age who remain in rural areas to have larger agricultural operation scale and sideline income opportunities, so as to improve the level of agricultural income. On the other hand, if the opportunities for agricultural income increase, more relatively young workers will be retained to work in villages, while their chances of going to cities will be reduced.

In a specific period, the opportunities for urban workers and agricultural profits are roughly unchanged, and the decision on whether farmers should go to work in cities or stay in villages is only related to two factors, one is their own age and expected income level, the other is the possible income from working, or the opportunity to get income from agriculture. Older people, such as over 60, have fewer job opportunities, so it is forced and acceptable to go home and grow their own contracted land. Under the age of 60, they still have the opportunity to go to the city to work and do business to earn income. if the income from farming is too low, of course, they will go to the city. If there are profit opportunities in agriculture that are not lower than those in the city, for example, they can flow into the land to form a moderate scale operation, and have a sideline income, they may choose to stay in the countryside. In the statistics of about 170 households in the above three village groups, the farmers who only grow their own contracted land basically have no labor force under the age of 55. For those under the age of 55 who still stay in the village for farming, there must be other sources of income, the most typical of which, of course, is the inflow of land, as well as various income opportunities, such as working as agricultural machinery, sideline, handicrafts, farming, and so on. In this way, we can get two "all" judgments: all farmers who only grow their own contracted land are workers over the age of 55; those under 55 who still stay in the village for farming, their income is not just their own contracted land. and there must be or inflow of land, or sideline income, or other sources of income. Of course, the labor force in the village over the age of 55 may not only have their own contracted land, but may have all kinds of income opportunities. In Sheyang, almost all the rural workers in Sheyang who are about 60 years old have a variety of opportunities to earn income.

Although there are individual differences (because whether they can get profit opportunities from rural areas, each individual situation is different), generally speaking, from the current situation of China's urbanization process, farmers who work in cities will return to rural areas sooner or later. Sheyang farmers believe that working in the city is only a means, and they will come back to farm sooner or later. Now few farmers around the age of 50 plan to live in the city when they are old. Even if they buy a house, they still buy a house for their children. It is impossible for them to live with their children in the city when they are old. On the one hand, it is easy to have conflicts with their children; second, it is boring to live in the city. In the countryside, there are houses to live, fields to grow, and social relationships with acquaintances, and life is easy and comfortable. In Sheyang rural areas, all children who get married will be separated from their parents.

Since they will come back to farm sooner or later, farmers are unwilling to transfer their land for a long time. In the fourth group of the third middle village of Changdang town, a peasant household flows into 150 mu of land of more than ten households in this group at a rate of 650 yuan / mu, with a lease term of five years. Three and a half years have passed at the time of investigation, and it will expire in one and a half years. The farmer hopes to renew the five-year lease for another five years after it expires. According to the analysis of the village cadres, he may get what he wants, but there will certainly be great changes in the tenants in the next five years, because the farmers who left the land five years ago will be older five years later and will come back to farm. In fact, several families in this group have come back from the city waiting to reclaim the due land for their own planting. At the same time, there are also farmers who used to farm by their parents, but now their parents are too old to be able to farm land, and they can still work in cities, so they are willing to rent out the land for a number of years. Of course you can't rent it out for too long.

According to a survey in the rural areas of Sheyang, it was found that the highest farming age was 83 years old, and he still planted two mu of land, while Hu Jianhua, a 78-year-old man, still planted 5 mu of farmland. He said that now there is no problem with "co-farming" and planting another 20 mu. It is possible for "co-cultivation" to plant fields for another 3-5 years. Hu Jianhua, 78, has a very good family. He has four sons, three working outside the home, and one farming at home. His financial conditions are all very good. He himself has a savings of more than 70,000 yuan, and his annual farming income is more than 5000 yuan, while his consumption is very low. It is obvious that his farming is not just to prevent old age or make a living, but that farming makes sense, otherwise he will become a "death squad", which is meaningless. When people in rural areas are able to work, they must work. They are never too old to work, and labor is a kind of need. In particular, under the condition of mechanical operation, agricultural production no longer needs to be carried by people, and it is meaningful to manage the elderly in the field. The perfect social service provided by "joint farming and co-planting" further provides the possibility for the agriculture of the elderly.

Based on the above analysis, I am afraid there is no problem of unmanned farming in rural areas. If there is more land and more opportunities for rural income, there will certainly be more and younger farmers staying in the countryside to farm. Now there is too little arable land in rural areas and too few income opportunities in rural areas. If more land can be obtained, or more land can be flowed into it, more young and middle-aged workers will stay in rural areas to farm.

Sheyang County statistics of the county's scale operation of more than 30 mu, Haihe Town, a total of 210000 mu of arable land, of which more than 30 mu scale operating area of 23500 mu, a total of 300 households, the vast majority of these heads of households are between 45 and 55 years old, and few of them are over 60 years old. The reason why young and middle-aged workers aged 45 to 55 can stay in the countryside is that they flow into the land so that they can get income opportunities not lower than those of migrant workers in rural areas. If there is land, there will naturally be the main body of large-scale agricultural production and management.

In other words, the formation of a new type of business subject has its inherent law. In order to cultivate a new type of agricultural operators, some places promote large-scale and long-term irreversible land circulation, which may block the freedom of high-level balanced farmers to advance and retreat between urban and rural areas, resulting in the serious consequence that farmers who go to cities can no longer return to their hometown.

Today, China is unable to provide conditions for all farmers to live in cities, and migrant workers have to return to the countryside if they fail to enter the city. The key to whether and how to return is how many profit opportunities there are in the countryside. At present, it is not unmanned farming, but a large number of farmers have no fields to grow and it is very difficult to grow them. The focus of state finance is to provide hundreds of millions of farmers with the convenience of farming and to solve the difficulties that are difficult for them to solve in farming. "joint farming and planting" in Sheyang, Jiangsu Province is a good experience worth popularizing.