Anhui soybean low price open scale Northeast soybean is not interested.

With the end of National Day holiday, autumn is thick, the weather is getting cooler, the domestic grain began a round of price reduction frenzy. It is understood that due to the large planting area and sufficient output of corn in China this year, the price of corn in the new season will be reduced somewhat. At the same time, due to rumors of lowering the storage price and other reasons, the price of wheat has shown a "cliff" decline. Soybeans can not escape the "bad luck" of price reduction. After a large number of new beans are on the market, with the influence of planting area, output, soybean quality, market demand and other factors, soybean prices have fallen in varying degrees. Let's talk about how domestic soybeans start the "journey of price reduction".

With the increase of output, Anhui soybean opens the balance at a low price.

Soybean is one of the main summer crops planted by farmers in Anhui Province. according to incomplete statistics, the soybean area of Fuyang City, Anhui Province is 1.8 million mu this year, and the soybean planting area of Suzhou City is 1.56 million mu this year. Anhui soybean yield per mu has increased compared with last year, and the yield per mu in most areas can be close to 400jin. As a result, although the planting area of soybeans in Anhui has decreased somewhat this year, the overall output of soybeans in Anhui is estimated to be about the same as that of last year. It is understood that the soybean output of Anhui Province this year reached 1.1 million tons, only 40, 000 tons less than last year, or 3.48% less.

As of October 10, the price of soybeans in Anhui has been steadily lowered, and the price of net grain trucks is about 2.0 yuan / jin. Compared with the same period last year, the market of soybeans in Anhui is weaker, mainly due to the following two reasons: first, affected by the market of soybeans in Hubei this year, traders bought at a low price. From August to September this year, the price of Hubei soybean showed a trend of "opening high and going low" under the influence of the overall domestic environment, increased output, weak market demand, and so on, which is very similar to the current soybean market in Anhui. In order to avoid repeating the same mistake, some traders in Anhui bought it at a low price. Second, as the saying goes, "scarcity is precious". This year, the high yield of soybean in Anhui coupled with weak market demand has led to a decline in soybean prices. The southern soybean market has purchased a large number of Hubei soybeans and imported soybeans from August to September, and the inventory has been high for a long time, but the market demand is weak and the consumption of soybean inventory is slow. The acquisition of Anhui soybean is not as positive as expected.

From the perspective of the national soybean situation, the low price in Anhui directly affects the price of northeast soybean, and the northeast soybean has been at a disadvantage in the competition with Anhui soybean.

The quality is declining, and no one is interested in the northeast soybean.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, soybean production in the three northeastern provinces was 5.01 million tons in October 2015, a decrease of 1.01 million tons, or 16.7 percent, compared with 6.02 million tons in the previous year. In October 2015, Heilongjiang produced a maximum of 3.7 million tons, a decrease of 904000 tons, or 22.2%, compared with 4.064 million tons of soybeans in the previous year. During the period of planting soybeans in Northeast China this year, there was a lot of low temperature and light and more weather in Rain Water, which seriously affected the quality of soybeans in Northeast China this year, making the price rise of soybeans in Northeast China unsupported for the time being. As of October 12, the net grain loading price range of soybeans in Heilongjiang is between 2.05-2.10 yuan / jin, which has no difference with the outgoing loading price of Anhui soybeans, and even appears upside down, which makes the sales of soybeans in Northeast China stagnant.

According to previous years' experience, the price difference between Anhui soybean and northeast soybean should be at least 20 cents, while northeast soybean is uncompetitive. The quality of northeast soybeans is not ideal this year, which has no advantage compared with Anhui soybeans. Many grain enterprises in Liaoning, Shandong and other places have turned their procurement targets to Anhui and other places. Ms. Qian, who has been engaged in soybean trade in Inner Mongolia for many years, told me, "in previous years, at the beginning of soybean harvest, many customers would call to inquire about prices, but this year the quality of soybeans in Northeast China is so average that there are no inquiries." At present, the northeast soybean almost no one is interested in, traders generally reflect that the northeast soybean water content is high, the protein content is low, the insect population is serious, the quality decline and weak demand seriously affect the northeast soybean market volume.

To sum up, under the premise of the overall economic downturn this year, domestic soybeans are falling into an adjustment period, and the market demand is weak at this stage. Around September, various purchasers purchased a large number of Hubei beans and imported soybeans, the inventory is always saturated, the consumption is slow, and the price is always weak. through the communication between the author and many traders, it is understood that the inventory consumption and delivery volume of grain enterprises at the present stage. It is expected that there will be a replenishment cycle in mid-to-late November, when the price of domestic soybeans will pick up due to positive factors such as improved demand and declining soybean moisture. However, the price increase is expected to be limited, soybean prices want to show a sustained upward trend in the short term is less likely, will still be in a low shock.