Three major staple grain purchase prices fell experts: should be through the increase of pensions and other parties

Since the beginning of autumn this year, the value of corn and wheat in major grain producing areas has declined to varying degrees. Corn fell by more than 20% on average, with the highest drop of 30% compared with last year. Analysts said that this year, special attention should be paid to the impact of the sharp drop in food prices on the income of hundreds of millions of farmers. Negative income growth at the level of 100 billion will affect the consumer market and is expected to affect 1%GDP.

The across-the-board decline of the three staple grains is rare in previous years. Low international grain prices and a backlog of domestic stocks are seen as the main reasons for the current round of grain price decline.

Ma Wenfeng believes that farmers' income has plummeted this year, which will naturally have an impact on farmers' lives, and farmers need to be subsidized through financial transfer payments, but WTO has requirements for subsidies for China's agricultural products, and developed countries will have opinions if they directly subsidize farmers. The best way is to subsidize farmers by means of higher pensions, and if rural consumption is increased, economic growth will naturally catch up.

Netizens @ cold and warm self-knowledge-DIDIAO: "Farmers' income is afraid of losing hundreds of billions of major grain purchase prices across the board": as far as I know, about 1000 jin of grain is produced per mu of land, and now the actual purchase price of grain is 80 cents per jin, excluding seeds, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, watering, harvesting and other expenses, that is, a profit of 300 yuan per mu. With an average of 5 mu of land per household, the annual income from growing grain is only 3000 yuan, which is the rhythm of driving crazy farmers! Experts say the best way is to subsidize farmers by raising pensions, and if rural consumption is increased, economic growth will naturally catch up.

The prices of farmers and workers in China are much higher than those in South America and Southeast Asia, and the quality of land is poor, as well as heavy metals, agricultural residues and other factors. This kind of agriculture is uncompetitive and depends entirely on subsidies. The question is, how much longer can I afford it?

Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst at Edgar, said in an interview with reporters that this year, special attention should be paid to the impact of the sharp drop in food prices on the income of hundreds of millions of farmers. Negative income growth at the level of 100 billion will affect the consumer market and is expected to affect 1% GDP growth.

The three staple grains fell across the board.

After the National Day, corn was harvested one after another and went into the acquisition link, but farmers in many places found that the purchase price of corn this year was lower than 20% and 30% in previous years.

A reporter from the Huaxia Times conducted a random sampling survey on a number of major grain producing areas. Among them, the price of wet corn harvested in Changchun, Jilin Province was 6 hair per jin, nearly 3 hair lower than in previous years; in Changgou Town, Jining, Shandong Province, the price of cool corn (meeting the purchase standard) was more than 1 yuan and 20 cents last year, but only 80 cents this year, a drop of more than 20 cents. Farmers in Handan, Hebei Province told reporters that the local corn purchase price has been maintained at about 80 cents, a drop of more than 20% compared with previous years.

In the Beidahuang area this year, grain has had a bumper harvest, but grain prices have also dampened the enthusiasm of farmers. According to the official report of Qitaihe City, most of the corn is directly listed after the corn harvest. The purchase price of 30% moisture corn cobs is 0.35 yuan per jin and corn kernels is 0.65 yuan per jin, down 0.1 yuan per jin from 0.75 yuan per jin in the same period in 2014, a drop of 13.3 percent.

Zhang Aiqin, a farmer from Sunji Village, Zhouzhai Town, Dangshan County, Anhui Province, told the Huaxia Times that the price of cool-dried corn was 1.07 yuan per jin in the same period last year and 0.78 yuan per jin this year, and there were very few buyers, mainly sold to traders. "my family sold 5243 yuan on 7 mu of land last year, and the price of corn output affected by insect pests this year is even lower. This year, the total income is 3588 yuan, and the income is 1655 yuan less. I will not plant and cover all the land next year."

In addition to corn, the price of wheat also fell sharply. During this year's National Day holiday, wheat prices fell off a cliff, which has not been seen for many years. According to the China Grain Information Network, the purchase price of second-class wheat by flour mills in most regions quickly fell from 1.15-1.20 yuan per jin before the holiday to 1.05-1.10 yuan per jin, a drop of about 0.1 yuan per jin. This confused most people involved in the wheat trade and plunged the market into a serious atmosphere of panic.

Generally speaking, after the purchase of the national reserve market ends on September 30, there will be a wave of decline in wheat prices, so that flour mills can have a pick-up process, but the decline in wheat prices this year has been rare.

According to people in the wheat industry, the sharp drop was caused by Shandong, and the local market acquisition ended, but there are still a large number of wheat convoys in local grain depots that cannot enter the warehouse this year, especially in Liaocheng and Texas, where wheat can only be sent to flour mills, while flour mills cannot digest and directly depress prices.

"after Hebei and other flour giants learned of the rapid decline in wheat purchase prices in Liaocheng and Texas, they all made a rapid response and began to reduce wheat purchase prices. the prices of these flour enterprises are often the weather vane of the market and eventually transmitted to the whole country." The above-mentioned person said.

Not only wheat and corn, but also rice is not doing well this year. Data from many places show that rice prices are stable and falling. Yang Zhicai, a farmer in Dangtu County, Anhui Province, told reporters that the price of rice this year has dropped by about 10 cents compared with previous years, and his income of several hundred mu of land has been reduced by tens of thousands of yuan. The reporter conducted a sample survey in Heilongjiang and found that the current price of rice is basically the same as that of previous years.

Ma Wenfeng said that the biggest price declines this year are corn and wheat, of which corn is mainly feed, while rice bran as feed will also be affected, mainly in the feed link to the price, while inventory overstocking also has an impact. "but corn alone has a big impact."

Affect GDP or up to 1%

Although there is a national acquisition policy to support the market, it is difficult for the policy to affect the market. Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the Huaxia Times that the state-regulated price is one yuan, but the relative market-regulated price has dropped by 30%. "this shows that the influence of state power is weakening. And China's corn market price has been in line with the international market, and the international market down synchronously, the gap will be smaller and smaller. "

Under the influence of the global economy, commodity prices have generally fallen this year, followed by a drop in global agricultural prices, resulting in a price gap with grain prices in the Chinese market. Ren Zhengxiao, director of the State Grain Administration, said in an article in Qiushi in September that the current international prices of soybeans, corn, wheat and rice are 1175 yuan, 923,626 yuan and 1143 yuan lower than domestic prices, respectively, and this has had a certain impact on the domestic market. Grain imports continue to increase, squeezing out the domestic market sales share.

According to the latest statistics from Chinese customs, China imported 3.13 million tons of grain and grain flour in September 2015 and 26.08 million tons from January to September, an increase of 81.2 percent over the same period last year. Imports of soybeans totaled 5964 tons in the first nine months, compared with 5274 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 13 percent over the same period last year.

"the transmission of international grain prices to China on the one hand is direct import, on the other hand, it is the transmission of information. However, due to the quota management of grain imports in our country, this transmission is more information transmission." Li Guoxiang said.

Of course, in addition to normal imports, there is also a large amount of smuggled grain. A relevant person revealed to the "Huaxia Times" that major grain smuggling cases have been repeatedly investigated this year, and smuggling has formed a complete chain in the country, endangering national food security.

In addition to international factors, excessive domestic grain is also the main reason. At present, there is a backlog of domestic grain. On October 8, the State Grain Administration issued a notice describing the current grain storage situation as two "unprecedented": "at present, China's grain stocks have reached a new high, and the amount of grain stored by all kinds of grain and oil storage enterprises is unprecedented. The amount of national policy grain stored in open-air and simple storage facilities is also unprecedented."

Ma Wenfeng believes that the drop of more than 20% in grain prices this year directly affects farmers' disposable income of nearly 100 billion yuan. According to the simple calculation of 78% of Chinese farmers' consumption tendency in the first half of the year, the sharp drop in grain prices this year directly affects farmers' consumer market, or affects the growth rate of GDP by 1%.

"the profit of corn last year was 46 billion, but this year's profit is minus 97.7 billion, which is only 143.7 billion yuan lower than the disposable income of farmers last year." This is based on the cost-benefit accounting system of agricultural products announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, changes in chemical fertilizer prices and current price changes during corn production, as well as the sowing of domestic corn. "according to the propensity to consume in rural areas, the estimated impact on GNP is 650 billion." According to Ma Wenfeng, the net profit per mu of corn announced by the National Development and Reform Commission last year is 81 yuan, and this year it is about minus 650 billion yuan. the current corn acreage is 382 million mu, and the price difference from earning 81 yuan to losing 179 yuan is 260. the multiplication of the two is close to 100 billion. if combined with the calculation of farmers' consumption index, divided by the consumption multiplier effect of 0.22, it is about 650 billion.

Ma Wenfeng said: the net profit per mu of wheat was 87 yuan last year and 33 yuan this year. Farmers' income per mu is 54 yuan less, which is about 12.4 billion of the net profit multiplied by the national wheat field, which is about 19 billion lower. If divided by 0.22 billion, the GDP this year is about 70 trillion yuan, and wheat and corn together affect GDP by one percentage point.

Ma Wenfeng believes that farmers' income has plummeted this year, which will naturally have an impact on farmers' lives, and farmers need to be subsidized through financial transfer payments, but WTO has requirements for subsidies for China's agricultural products, and developed countries will have opinions if they directly subsidize farmers. The best way is to subsidize farmers by means of higher pensions, and if rural consumption is increased, economic growth will naturally catch up.