Where will the grain market go in 2016? The pressure of grain collection and storage is still not small.

After a bumper harvest: there is still a lot of pressure on grain harvesting and storage.

At present, China has achieved "twelve consecutive increases" of summer grain and "eleven consecutive harvests" of grain throughout the year, but after a bumper harvest, there is a lot of pressure on grain collection and storage.

Yan Bo, spokesman for the State Grain Administration and director of the Department of policies and regulations, said that China's grain collection and storage system is mainly composed of four parts: first, national reserves, second, local reserves, third, enterprise storage, and fourth, farmers' grain storage. In recent years, household grain reserves accounted for about 50% of the country's total grain output in that year. Therefore, it is of great significance to popularize scientific grain conservation measures among the broad masses of farmers.

According to a sample survey conducted by the State Grain Administration, the loss rate of stored grain by farmers across the country is about 8 per cent, with an annual loss of 40 billion jin of grain. Due to the poor grain storage conditions of farmers and the lack of scientific knowledge and technology of grain storage, it poses a threat to grain collection and storage and brings hidden dangers to the quality and safety of grain in our country.

In the past seven years, China has implemented the construction of a scientific grain storage project for farmers and promoted the use of new scientific granaries, so that the average loss rate of grain storage by farmers can be reduced from 8% to about 1.5%. The 8.17 million sets of grain storage silos that have been promoted can reduce the loss of grain storage by farmers by 1.8 billion jin per year.

Ren Zhengxiao, director of the State Grain Administration, said that by the end of 2015, the grain system will allocate nearly 10 million sets of scientific granaries for farmers, which can help farmers reduce the loss of grain storage by more than 2.5 billion jin per year. "however, the interest compensation mechanism in the major grain producing areas has yet to be fully established, the post-natal grain losses of the vast number of farmers continue to occur, and the task of helping farmers to increase and reduce their income is still arduous." Ren Zhengxiao said.

The superposition of "three highs": grain harvesting and storage faces three major contradictions.

With the gradual harvest of mid-late rice and corn on the market in 2015, the acquisition of autumn grain has begun. At present, the state has started the purchase of middle and late rice in Anhui, Sichuan, Hubei, Henan and other places, and the purchase of autumn grain in Northeast China is about to be implemented.

Ren Zhengxiao said that under the background of accelerating the strategic adjustment of China's economic structure, the globalization of grain trade and the deepening marketization of grain purchase and sale, various contradictions in the operation of the domestic grain market are intertwined and accumulated. It is mainly manifested in the following three aspects: the tight balance of total grain supply and demand and the periodic surplus of some varieties, the double squeeze of supporting the market price and the protection of the interests of agriculture and agriculture, the appropriate use of international grain resources and the impact of imported grain on the domestic market.

What is the impact of these "three mountains" on China's grain collection and storage? Ren Zhengxiao pointed out: at present, there is a superposition of high grain output, high purchase, and high inventory in China, especially the continuous increase in corn production and the continuous decline in consumer demand. feed processing enterprises frequently use imported barley, sorghum, distiller's grains and other substitutes, the characteristics of phased surplus of corn is very obvious. In addition, due to the low price of imported grain, the "floor" of domestic grain production costs continues to rise, forming a squeeze situation. In this situation of double squeeze, the space to protect farmers' enthusiasm of growing grain by simply relying on open acquisition and raising the purchase price of supporting the market is getting smaller and smaller, and the effect is getting weaker and weaker. the current grain collection and storage policy system is facing unprecedented challenges and tests.

According to customs statistics, China's grain output in 2014 was 607.1 million tons, while grain imports reached a new high of 106 million tons.

What kind of pressure will grain harvest and storage face in the future? Ren Zhengxiao pointed out that in recent years, although imports within the quotas of the three major grain varieties have been managed in an orderly manner, imports of non-quota varieties such as wine dregs and dried cassava have increased rapidly, squeezing out the domestic corn market share and aggravating the contradiction that production exceeds demand. In addition, grain production and inventory distribution are gradually concentrated to the core producing areas, the pressure of collection and storage in the main producing areas is enormous, the purchase policy of supporting the market will continue, policy-oriented grain stocks will "snowball" year after year, and the financial burden is getting heavier and heavier.

Deepening Reform: improving the Price and Market Regulation Mechanism of Agricultural products

In the face of the problems and challenges faced by grain harvesting and storage, experts pointed out that under the background of successive bumper harvests, it is necessary to reform and improve the grain harvesting and storage system, do a good job in modern grain circulation, let farmers grow grain with more income, and keep the enthusiasm of growing grain in major grain producing areas undiminished. It is the key to developing modern agriculture, reforming the grain collection and storage system, and invigorating circulation.

Since 2006, the state has continuously implemented the minimum grain purchase price policy of protecting grain production and increasing farmers' income. this policy measure has played an important role in ensuring the grain market and protecting the interests of grain farmers, but some problems have also been exposed in the operation. the grain market mainly presents the situation led by the government, the policy inventory increases, and the reform of grain collection, storage and circulation system is imperative.

Hu Hengyang, an inspector of the Agricultural economy Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that in deepening the reform of the grain circulation system, it is necessary to improve the grain price and market regulation mechanism, promote the transformation of reserve regulation from "price intervention" to "supply and demand regulation", and promote the transformation of grain import and export regulation from "mainly controlling imports" to "making effective use of the international market."

Ren Zhengxiao said: in order to deepen the reform, it is necessary to establish a mechanism for central and local reserves to perform their respective functions, coordinate and complement each other, and form a joint force for reserve regulation and control. It is necessary to strengthen the construction of the government grain reserve supervision system, improve the government grain reserve huff and puff adjustment mechanism, and promote the openness and transparency of business links such as the purchase, sale, and rotation of grain reserves, so as to better serve grain macro-control.

Experts suggest that in order to deepen the reform of the grain collection and storage system, we should also give full play to the enthusiasm of the central and local governments, actively explore and encourage and guide leading enterprises in agricultural industrialization to develop order purchases, and establish a close interest linkage mechanism with grain producers. change the pressure of the government's collection and storage into a driving force for promoting the healthy development of the grain purchase market.