Dare to ask where the road to spring sowing of rapeseed is.

By the middle of October, the harvest of spring sowing rapeseed in China is coming to an end, in which the harvest in Inner Mongolia is basically completed, and the harvest progress in northwest producing areas is also close to 80%. However, subject to the end of the national temporary storage and support system, the prices of rapeseed in the above-mentioned producing areas have not only plummeted, but also become more difficult to ship, which makes people cannot help but ask: where is the way to sow rapeseed in spring?

The support of the market was cancelled, the subsidy was not determined, and the local oil factory refused to buy.

This year, China's rapeseed collection and storage policy has been comprehensively de-propped, and spring sowing areas are not expected to carry out market-supporting acquisitions. So far, the national and local governments have not mentioned any rapeseed purchase subsidy program or details, which makes the local oil factories have a strong wait-and-see mentality. Objectively speaking, as early as 2013, the price profit of spring sowing rapeseed is no longer considerable, and most of the reasons why the factory can maintain the start-up and pressing are due to the implementation of the national policy of supporting the market, which bears less risk and has a slight surplus at the time of annual settlement. However, the end of this year's market support policy will make factory crushing production face greater risks, especially this year's domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal market is extremely weak, oil factories are likely to crush losses. According to our understanding, in addition to Xinjiang (rapeseed harvesting progress is relatively slow), Inner Mongolia and northwest rapeseed production areas opened less than 10% of the oil plants. The main body's refusal to purchase has directly led to a sharp drop in local rapeseed prices. as of this week, the price of rapeseed in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia, has been as low as 1.73-1.75 yuan per jin, far lower than 2.55 yuan per jin in the same period last year, a drop of 0.8 yuan per catty. It is comparable to the winter sowing of rapeseed in the Yangtze River basin, which is astonishing. In addition, according to feedback from local traders, individual local oil factories entered the market to participate in the purchase of raw materials, but the deduction standard was extremely strict, which was basically lower than the market price, and then sold the goods at the price purchased in the market, earning only deduction of the rapeseed price difference, disturbing the local market, and forcing traders to passively lower the export price and seize the downstream market.

The demand in the producing areas of the Yangtze River Basin is low, and the outward transportation of spring sowing rapeseed is blocked.

The market of rapeseed-related products in winter sowing areas is in the doldrums this year, and in theory, the cold weather has given a certain boost to the rapeseed oil market, but neither the spot transaction nor the market price has improved greatly, and the rapeseed meal market has plummeted rapidly with the end of aquaculture. To sum up, it is simply "rapeseed oil peak season is not prosperous, rapeseed meal off season is bleak." Based on the early prediction of the product market, most local oil factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials. With the exception of Sichuan, no factory in the province has purchased more than 20,000 tons of rapeseed, and the production time is up to two months. As the product market continues to deteriorate, there is only a theoretical possibility for oil factories in the above areas to resume operation, and the phenomenon of "transporting north grain to the south" of spring sowing rapeseed in the past may be difficult to reappear. After the end of rapeseed subsidies in Sichuan, most local oil factories stopped to wait and see, and their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials declined, and the local oil factories said that the mustard oil from northwest and Inner Mongolia rapeseed was dark and less fragrant than local rapeseed, so even if the price of the rapeseed was lower than that of local rapeseed in Sichuan, the factory was not interested in buying.

Generally speaking, the author believes that the late situation of spring sowing rapeseed is nothing more than two points: first, waiting for the acquisition subsidy policy in the northwest and Inner Mongolia producing areas. The author speculates that in November the government is expected to issue relevant policies on rapeseed purchase subsidies to protect the enthusiasm of farmers in the only double-low rapeseed producing areas in the country. At present, the local factory production profits basically maintain a break-even, if raw material procurement subsidies, the factory will get a certain profit space, and then stimulate its procurement and production. Second, it is hoped that some production in Sichuan will resume in November. SciDev.Net speculates that factories in Sichuan will not have a full shutdown and vacation, and it is expected that some medium and large oil enterprises will resume operation in November, while there are few local rapeseed raw materials, and oil factories may consider mixing local rapeseed with northwest rapeseed to blend the color and flavor of rapeseed, which will drive the demand for spring sowing rapeseed to a certain extent. But objectively speaking, the above two points are uncertain, and the spring sowing rapeseed market still seems to be treading on thin ice.