Implement the temporary storage policy of corn in Northeast China and encourage enterprises to actively enter the market and purchase

Since the beginning of this year, under the background of sufficient domestic corn supply, weak industrial demand and increased import of substitutes, the domestic corn market is generally weak, and the corn market price continues to decline in the second half of the year. On September 17, the state announced the temporary collection and storage price of corn this year. Recently, with the mass listing of new corn, the downward pressure on domestic corn prices has increased.

At present, what are the outstanding characteristics of the domestic corn market situation? What are the opportunities and challenges facing the whole corn industry chain? What measures should be taken to effectively protect the interests of farmers and help processing enterprises tide over the difficulties? What are the solutions to the deep-seated problems in the corn industry? To this end, the reporter interviewed the Ministry of Agriculture corn industry chain agricultural information analysis and early warning team.

Reporter: at present, the new corn has begun to appear on the market in batches. What is the situation of the domestic corn market?

Agricultural information analysis and early warning team of the whole corn industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture: on October 9, experts from the information early warning system of the whole corn industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture held a meeting in Changchun, Jilin Province, to discuss the corn market situation in 2015, and initially formed the following views:

Generally speaking, China's corn production will have another bumper harvest in 2015, and the corn yield is basically the same as that of the previous year, and the pattern of weak market demand and loose supply system has not changed. Judging from the situation reflected by everyone, the output of corn varies from region to region, with an increase in corn production in Hubei, Hunan and other places, and a slight decrease in corn production in some parts of the northeast. According to a survey conducted by the agricultural department in the northeast region, affected by the summer drought in the middle and last ten days of July this year, the traditional dry areas of western and eastern Liaoning, central and western Inner Mongolia, Jilin and western Heilongjiang have been affected by drought, resulting in a decrease in yield per unit area, and it is expected that there may be a slight reduction in yield in some areas.

On September 17, the national temporary collection and storage price of corn was announced in advance, the market price continued to fall, and the purchase price of new corn was significantly lower than that of the previous year. At present, a large number of corn has been listed in North China and Northeast China. The purchase price of corn in Heze, Liaocheng and other places in Shandong Province on October 14 was 1560,1600 yuan per ton, down about 400 yuan from the same period last year. The current price of corn in Henan is 0.7-0.8 yuan per jin, down more than 20% from the same period last year. The purchase price of corn in Inner Mongolia on October 8 was 1,950,2000 yuan per ton, down about 100 yuan from the beginning of September and about 20% from the same period last year. Some processing enterprises in Jilin listed in late September to buy new grain, with a weighing price of 1800 yuan to 1900 yuan per ton, down about 300 yuan from the same period last year. With the start of temporary corn storage in Northeast China on November 1, corn prices are expected to stabilize gradually in the later stage.

Reporter: from a comprehensive analysis, what are the characteristics of China's corn industry worth paying attention to at present?

The agricultural information analysis and early warning team of the whole corn industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture: first, the pressure of market-oriented purchase and sale increases. This year's corn temporary storage and acquisition policy requires strict implementation of national standards and will no longer relax relevant quality standards such as mildew grain content. This will not only ensure the quality and safety of the national grain collection and storage, but also greatly reduce the national temporary storage and purchase, which means that more corn will enter the market circulation. Coupled with the lack of drying facilities for most farmers in Northeast China, it is easy to produce mildew grains after improper storage of corn after harvest, resulting in sales difficulties. Therefore, doing a good job in the publicity and service of corn storage and purchase, and guiding farmers to "grow good grain, collect good grain, and sell good prices" will become the focus of alleviating the pressure of purchasing and selling in the northeast corn market.

Second, in some parts of Northeast China, production has been reduced and grain prices have fallen, and the income of grain farmers has dropped sharply than expected. From the situation reflected by everyone, the material cost of corn has not changed much, and the labor cost has increased slightly, but the cost of land lease has increased greatly, and the land transfer expenses of large-scale growers in some areas account for about half of the production cost. coupled with the reduction of corn production and the decline in grain prices, the income of most scale growers has declined greatly. According to the cost-benefit survey of 860 corn growers in 25 counties by the Information Center of Heilongjiang Provincial Committee of Agriculture, the total cost of corn production was 847.10 yuan per mu, an increase of 6.63 yuan over the same period last year. The average net income per mu of corn was 90.88 yuan, which was nearly 200 yuan lower than that of the previous year.

Third, the northeast processing enterprises have a large loss area, and the North China processing industry is showing a warming trend. This year, the corn deep processing industry in Northeast China is in the most difficult period in history, and some enterprises have suffered cash flow losses. According to the survey of analysts, the actual annual corn deep processing capacity of the three provinces and one region in Northeast China is only 17 million tons, and the overall operating rate is only 40%. Due to the continuous sharp decline in corn prices, the corn processing industry in North China has shown an obvious warming trend. According to a survey conducted by Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., the operating rate of some deep processing enterprises in Shandong has been maintained at 50% 60%, and it is expected that the whole year will be 5% higher than that of the previous year. 8%. With the increase of the operating rate of deep processing enterprises in North China, corn consumption is expected to recover gradually, which is conducive to the stabilization of the market in the later period.

Fourth, corn prices in Northeast and North China may become the norm. According to the monitoring of Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., in September, the average price of corn in Northeast China was 2200 yuan / ton, while the average price of corn in various provinces in North China was 2000-2100 yuan / ton. In October, corn prices in Northeast China are expected to fluctuate around 2000 yuan per ton, while prices in North China may fluctuate between 1800 yuan and 1900 yuan per ton. Northeast China has become the price "highland" of domestic corn, which is conducive to improving the enthusiasm of farmers in the main producing areas and stabilizing corn production in Northeast China, but it is not conducive to the export of corn in Northeast China with high inventory. there is an urgent need to increase policy support to corn deep processing enterprises and feed enterprises in Northeast China.

Fifth, the import substitution of corn will be reduced in the later stage. Since the beginning of this year, China's imports of corn and its substitutes have increased significantly. From January to August, China's total imports of corn, sorghum, barley, cassava and corn lees (DDGS) reached 30.55 million tons, exceeding the total import volume of last year. The temporary purchase and storage price of corn is basically close to the import price of sorghum and barley, and the current market price is generally lower than the temporary purchase price. Imported barley and sorghum as feed consumption will no longer have an obvious competitive advantage. It is expected that the growth rate of corn imports will slow down in the future, and the import of corn substitutes will also decline sharply.

Reporter: in view of the difficulties caused by the current decline in corn prices and the pressure of corn acquisition in Northeast China to increase farmers' income, what are the countermeasures?

Agricultural information analysis and early warning team of the whole corn industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture: at present, in view of the outstanding problems facing the corn market, it is necessary to earnestly implement the corn temporary storage policy and introduce policies as soon as possible to encourage deep processing and feed enterprises to purchase new processed grain, stabilize market expectations, protect farmers' interests, and help corn processing enterprises tide over the difficulties. The main short-term coping strategies are:

First, the national temporary reserves to increase the intensity of acquisition, stabilize market expectations, and stimulate the enthusiasm of the main body of the market to purchase processed corn. Processing enterprises suggest that, with reference to the acquisition fees, warehousing costs, policy discounts and other expenses given by the state to temporary storage enterprises, enterprises in the northeast region can effectively mobilize enterprises to purchase new grain by subsidizing more than 250 yuan per ton of processed corn.

The second is to improve the state reserve corn auction policy. Processing enterprises suggest that the order of temporary storage auction should be changed from "first-in, first-out" to "last-in, first-out" method, especially the early auction of corn purchased in 2014, so as to effectively reduce temporary storage inventory and financial pressure.

The third is to announce in advance the corn purchase policy for next year. The acquisition policy will be issued every year after the autumn harvest and before spring sowing at the latest to release price signals so that farmers can be psychologically prepared to do a good job in adjusting the planting structure in advance.

The fourth is to find a way out for the structural adjustment of corn. We will vigorously support the construction of large-scale silage corn planting bases, increase subsidies for rice, wheat, beans, miscellaneous, grass, melons, fruits and vegetables, expand the scope of pilot subsidies, and focus on supporting new operators of large-scale cultivation.

Reporter: in the long run, in order to solve the fundamental problems restricting the development of the corn industry, what policy suggestions are there in adjusting the industrial policy and reforming the regulation and control mechanism?

The agricultural information analysis and early warning team of the whole corn industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture: in view of the fundamental problems restricting the development of corn industry, we should further improve the system and mechanism and create medium-and long-term policies.

The first is to improve the price regulation and reserve mechanism. We will start the reform of corn collection and storage mechanism and regulation mechanism, and form a regulation and control system that combines price guidance with market regulation, social reserve and marketing loans.

The second is to establish an insurance system covering agricultural production disasters and market risks to avoid excessive market and income risks borne by small and medium-sized farmers in the process of improving the price formation mechanism of agricultural products.

The third is to explore the credit support system for the production and marketing of important agricultural products. Learn from the operation mode of non-recourse loan mortgage in the United States, combined with social operational collection and deposit policy, explore innovative production and marketing credit support methods.

Fourth, improve the risk management and market regulation system of important agricultural products. We will set up price seat belts for important agricultural products, explore the implementation of a monopoly system for imported agricultural products and a tax system for regulating import price differences, and ensure that import prices are not lower than those of domestic production costs.

The fifth is to establish a system for issuing the balance sheet of grain supply and demand to improve the pricing power and guiding power in the international market.