Abundant supply, weak demand, edible oil market difficult to continue upward

Last week (October 19-23), affected by the future price trend of CBOT soybean oil and horse plate palm oil, the domestic vegetable oil market showed a wide fluctuation trend. Due to the current abundant domestic vegetable oil supply, the spot market has also entered the off-season of traditional demand after the festival, and the basis has fallen somewhat.

Last week, the domestic soybean oil spot fell slightly, the market entered the post-holiday demand off-season, market trading volume fell slightly compared with the previous week, does not support prices continue to rise, bringing adjustment pressure. The ex-factory price of first-grade soybean oil in the port area was 5700-5900 yuan / ton, down 0-50 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. The price of first-class soybean oil in Henan oil plant is 5850-6050 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as the previous week.

After analyzing the future, the negative factors are: first, the cost of imported soybean oil in November is 80-90 yuan / ton lower than that of vegetable oil and soybean oil in domestic port areas, import profits improve, and enterprise procurement will increase. Second, Chinese manufacturers have accelerated the progress of soybean procurement recently.At present, it is estimated that the arrival volume of soybeans will be 5.5 million tons in October, 7.5 million tons in November and 8 million tons in December. Soybean imports showed a month-on-month increase in the fourth quarter. Third, from the monitoring data, the cost of soybean arrival in Hong Kong in the next six months is at a historical low level of 2800-3050 yuan / ton, and the supporting effect of raw material cost on the price of downstream products is weakened. There are many positive factors: first, the market estimates that soybean imports in October will be about 5.5 million tons, down 1.76 million tons from 7.26 million tons in September. Due to the periodic decline in domestic soybean supply, some oil plants will stop production, which will provide support to domestic oil meal prices. Second, September to October is the peak period, after October also entered the off-season of aquaculture, domestic soybean meal demand will decline, the market is not optimistic about the late soybean meal price, meal price decline is conducive to oil prices, after the oil-to-meal ratio will continue to rise.

To sum up, at present, the domestic soybean oil spot price has been managed into the right side of the U-shaped bottom, and it is expected that the domestic soybean oil spot price will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current price next week.

Last week, the spot price of domestic rapeseed oil was slightly. The ex-factory price of grade IV rapeseed oil in the Yangtze River Basin was 5900-6000 yuan / ton, down 0.100 yuan / ton from the previous week. The ex-factory price of grade IV rapeseed oil in South China is 5600-5750 yuan / ton, 50-5750 yuan / ton lower than the previous week. At present, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil is sufficient, and the market has entered the off-season of demand, so the price pressure of domestic rapeseed oil is greater.

After the analysis of the trend, the negative factors are: first, the previous rise in the price of rapeseed oil is completely driven by the rising price of palm oil, while the current market has great differences on the trend of palm oil, which will also affect the spot price of domestic rapeseed oil. Second, with the current favorable price of 80-90 yuan / ton of rape oil at home and abroad, the import enthusiasm of enterprises has increased, and the import volume of domestic rape oil will increase in the fourth quarter. Third, before the coming of the next double festival, the domestic market is in the traditional off-season of demand. In the case of abundant domestic supply of rapeseed oil, there are no factors that can support the continuous upward price of rapeseed oil.

There are many beneficial factors: first, last week, the duty payment cost of Canadian rapeseed to China was 3455 yuan / ton. according to the current spot prices of fourth-grade rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, the southeast coastal oil plants lost 80 yuan / ton in theory. Zhengzhou stock insurance loss of 100 yuan / ton. Under the support of cost, rapeseed oil is a more resistant variety. Second, the spot price of domestic rapeseed oil has been at the bottom of the past decade, although there is no power upward, but the downward space is also limited.

To sum up, due to raw material costs, domestic rapeseed prices will be relatively strong, but imported rapeseed into the Chinese market in the new season and rapeseed supply is expected to increase, but also suppress the room for rebound, the operation is still recommended to buy as you go.

Last week, the spot price of domestic palm oil fell slightly. The price of 24-degree palm oil in the port is concentrated at 4450-4550 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. At present, the cost of imported palm oil is more than 4900 yuan / ton, which is much higher than the distribution price of palm oil in domestic ports, but domestic palm oil stocks remain high, rising sharply compared with the same period last year, restraining palm oil prices.

Analysis of the future, negative factors are: first, the horse after a month of sharp rise, there is a pullback demand, and from a technical point of view, the possibility that the horse will continue to decline next week is very large. The weakness of the horse market will drag down the trend of palm oil. Second, the bumper harvest of American beans is a foregone conclusion, and the planting area of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise further. The cost of domestic imported soybeans to Hong Kong will remain at an all-time low in the next six months, and the cost of soybean oil will not support the unilateral situation of soybean oil and will be passed on to palm oil. Third, domestic palm oil imports averaged nearly 600000 tons a month in the third quarter, leading to a significant rebound in palm oil stocks. As of last Thursday, palm oil stocks in China's major ports had increased to 750000 tons, an increase of 50, 000 tons over the pre-holiday period and 230000 tons over the same period last year. Palm oil stocks are on the high side, which will depress domestic palm oil prices.

The positive factors are: first, the current palm oil price inside and outside hanging upside down 280 yuan / ton, serious import losses, it is expected that palm oil imports in the fourth quarter will be significantly lower than the third quarter, domestic palm oil stocks will enter a decline cycle. Second, the dry weather in Indonesia caused by El Ni ñ o offset the positive impact of the increase in per unit yield of mature oil palms. Indonesia cut palm oil production next year, Lido palm oil medium-and long-term trend.

To sum up, it is expected that next week domestic palm oil spot prices will continue to decline slightly, the operation of the spot is still to buy on demand, bargain can be an appropriate amount of hoarding.