Excessive grain imports impact national food security

The Central Economic work Conference previously put forward the national food security strategy of "giving priority to us, having a foothold at home, ensuring production capacity, appropriately importing, and supporting by science and technology" under the new situation. it requires that the rice bowls of the Chinese people should be firmly in their own hands at all times and that our rice bowls should be mainly filled with Chinese grain. Under this background, it is of great practical significance and urgency to scientifically evaluate the safety situation of grain and food rations in China during the 12th five-year Plan and the 13th five-year Plan, especially the consumption demand and production situation of rice, wheat and corn.

I. present situation and trend of rations consumption in China

According to the China Statistical Yearbook-2014, the per capita grain consumption of residents in China was 148.7 kg in 2013. Among them, 138.9 kg of grain, 2.3kg of potatoes and 7.5kg of beans. According to the calculation of the national population of 1.36072 billion in 2013, the total consumption of rations should be 202.34 million tons, including 189 million tons of cereals, 3.13 million tons of potatoes and 10.21 million tons of beans. Or to put it simply, the total consumption of rations in China in 2013 was about 200 million tons, of which grain accounted for 93.4%.

Wheat and rice are the main grains directly consumed by Chinese residents. It is speculated that wheat and rice account for the highest proportion of Chinese residents' food rations consumption at the end of the 12th five-year Plan period. Wheat and rice are the main food sources of per capita rations consumption of rural residents in China.

From the perspective of the changing trend of rations consumption and its structure of rural residents, the per capita rations consumption of rural residents in China has shown a downward trend as a whole since the 1990s. among them, the proportion of wheat and rice in rations consumption showed an upward trend. In 1990, the per capita food rations consumption of rural residents in China exceeded 260 kg, dropped to about 250 kg in 2000, and further dropped to less than 200 kg after 2010.

Although the per capita food rations and wheat and rice consumption of rural residents in China showed a downward trend, the proportion of direct consumption of wheat and rice in rations consumption showed an overall upward trend. In 1990, the proportion of wheat and rice in per capita rations consumption of rural residents in China was 82%. In 2005, the proportion rose to 87%, and in 2011 and 2012, the proportion rose slightly to more than 88%.

According to estimates, at the beginning of the 13th five-year Plan, the highest consumption of rations for urban and rural residents in China is estimated to be about 190 million tons, of which the direct consumption of wheat and rice as rations is about 170 million tons. Affected by the changes in urban and rural population structure and food consumption structure and other factors, by the end of the 13th five-year Plan, that is, 2020, the maximum consumption of food rations for urban and rural residents in China is estimated to drop to the level of 180 million tons, of which the direct consumption demand for wheat and rice as rations is about 160 million tons.

Based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, it is estimated that the food rations consumption of urban and rural residents shows different trends. From 2016 to 2020, the total consumption of food rations for urban residents is estimated to have increased from more than 90 million tons to 100 million tons, while that of rural residents has dropped from about 100 million tons to 70 million tons.

It is worth noting that China's urban and rural population structure, the decline in the proportion of young and middle-aged and the impact of the aging society on food consumption can not be ignored. In the change of food consumption structure of urban and rural residents, the substitution of non-grain consumption for grain consumption has an impact on food rations consumption. The substitution of animal source food and fat consumption for rations consumption, the substitution of vegetable and fruit consumption for grain consumption, the substitution of eating out for home consumption, the substitution of processed food for direct consumption of raw grain, and so on, may reduce the per capita food rations consumption of urban and rural residents. In addition, if certain practical results can be achieved in grain waste control and grain conservation, it will also reduce the per capita food rations consumption of urban and rural residents.

According to the outline of China's Food and Nutrition Development (2014 / 2020), "by 2020, the national per capita annual consumption of food rations will be 135 kg". According to the national population of 1.4 billion to 1.5 billion in 2020, the total consumption of rations should be in the range of 189 million tons and 202.5 million tons, or simply speaking, the consumption of rations in China will be about 200 million tons by 2020.

II. China's grain production capacity and the degree of food security

In 2014, China's total grain output reached 607.1 million tons, a record high. China's total grain output has exceeded 600 million tons for two consecutive years, which means that China's grain production capacity of 600 million tons has initially taken shape. The continuous improvement of grain production capacity in China is closely related to the increase of agricultural investment and the implementation of grain price policy, as well as the relatively slight negative impact of natural disasters on grain production in recent years.

During the 13th five-year Plan period, China's grain production structure may be further adjusted, scientific and technological progress will also bring about a continuous improvement in the level of grain yield per unit area, and there is still potential for grain production to increase. Although there is little potential for China's grain sown area to continue to expand, the improvement of agricultural science and technology, the expansion of the scope of high-yield creation, the promotion of high-standard farmland construction, and the level of grain yield per unit area have the potential to improve.

Assuming that China's cultivated land is in place, farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain will be consolidated, and the national grain sown area will not decline, taking into account the change in China's grain consumption structure and the potential for increasing per unit yield of corn, it is estimated that by 2020, China's grain yield level will be about 6000 kg to 6200 kg per hectare, and the grain production capacity will reach about 670 million to 700 million tons.

In 2014, although there is a large gap in China's grain production and demand, and we need to import nearly 100 million tons of grain from the international market, in terms of the total amount, China's total grain output ensures that the direct and indirect grain consumption of urban and rural residents is quite relaxed. In 2014, China's total grain output exceeded 600 million tons, and the amount of food rations and indirect consumption food (feed grain) for urban and rural residents was about 200 million tons and 300 million tons respectively. The ratio of total grain output to grain rations and indirect grain consumption for urban and rural residents was about 1.2.

According to the national food security strategy under the new situation, China has put forward the basic goal of basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute security of food rations, which requires that to ensure the grain consumption of urban and rural residents, we must ensure that our country has a strong grain production capacity. Considering that the change in the relationship between supply and demand in the grain market may change the expectations of the relevant subjects in the market, such as grabbing grain or sparing the sale of grain, and combined with the fact that a considerable part of grain is still used for seed and industrial processing, coupled with the inevitable loss in the process of grain harvest, transportation and storage, the amount of grain that can be produced in China must be higher than the consumption of direct rations and indirect feed grain for urban and rural residents. In order to facilitate discussion and estimation, the ratio of China's grain production capacity to the amount of food consumed by urban and rural residents can be defined as the domestic food security coefficient. According to China's grain production capacity and grain consumption of urban and rural residents, it is estimated that the food security coefficient of China at the end of the Twelfth five-year Plan period is about 1.2.

Although there have been some phenomena such as panic buying and cherishing the sale of some varieties of grain in some areas in China since 2003, grain prices have been rising continuously, but in reality, there has been neither long-term widespread rush to buy grain, nor long-term widespread hoarding of grain. It shows that the relationship between grain supply and demand is relatively loose on the whole, and the increasing grain production capacity of our country has a relatively good guarantee for national food security. In this way, it can be inferred that a domestic food security coefficient of about 1.2 can achieve the goal of national food security under the new situation.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of rice and wheat in China is significantly higher than the amount used for food rations consumption. In 2012, the per capita consumption of rice and wheat in China was 150.8 kg and 89.4kg respectively, while the per capita consumption of rice and wheat in rural households was 92.6kg and 52.3kg respectively, and the former was 1.63kg and 1.71times higher than that of the latter, respectively. the multiple is significantly higher than that in the relevant years before 2008 (see Table 4). The per capita consumption of rice and wheat of urban households should be lower than that of rural residents, the consumption of rice and wheat for food rations is quite loose, and the food security coefficient of rice and wheat produced in China is relatively higher.