The national grain reserve is facing the challenge of bumper harvest. Grain stocks are full.

Recently, researchers from a think-tank have investigated some major grain-producing cities in Heilongjiang Province and learned that due to the serious upside-down of grain prices at home and abroad, grain processing enterprises have fallen into industry losses, and the operating rate is generally insufficient and demand is not booming, and so on. The grain market presents an obvious "policy city". Affected by factors such as the lack of docking between the starting bidding price of policy grain and the domestic market price, there is a situation that grain stocks in many areas of Heilongjiang Province cannot be sold or sold.

In the face of the double squeeze of the cost "floor" and the price "ceiling", and the double constraints of the "red light" of resources and the "yellow line" of subsidies, the construction of the national grain reserve system is facing the test of adjustment, upgrading and transformation.

On September 17, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Grain Administration and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the Circular on the acquisition of temporary Storage Corn in Northeast China in 2015, which continued to implement the corn temporary storage policy, but the purchase price was significantly lower than that of last year. Take Heilongjiang as an example, the purchase price of corn that meets the relevant standards is 1 yuan per jin, 0.11 yuan lower than last year.

Experts pointed out that the reduction in the purchase price of corn in temporary storage can alleviate the current problem of oversupply in the corn market, but it is necessary to prevent the simple adjustment of policies because there is too much grain to affect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.

Grain stocks are full

"generally speaking, the three major crops of rice, corn and soybeans have basically matured, and a bumper harvest of grain has become a foregone conclusion." At the 2015 Heilongjiang Golden Autumn Grain Trade Cooperation Fair held on 17 September, the relevant responsible person of the Heilongjiang Provincial Grain Bureau made the above introduction.

In 2010, the total grain output of Heilongjiang Province exceeded 100 billion jin for the first time, and from 2011 to 2014, it became the largest grain-producing province in the country in a row, and this year's grain harvest again means that Heilongjiang Province has achieved "twelve consecutive harvests".

However, the hidden worries behind the bumper harvest are emerging. As the largest grain producing province in China, with the gradual increase of policy grain purchase, the inventory pressure is increasing. In the grain purchasing season from 2014 to 2015, the province bought a total of 144.2 billion jin of new grain, including 102.4 billion jin of policy grain, accounting for about 70% of the total. The total amount of grain purchased and the amount of policy grain purchased reached record highs.

A large number of new warehouses have been built in Heilongjiang Province in recent years, but they are far behind the amount of grain purchased. In the courtyard of Shengli Grain Depot Co., Ltd., Hailun City, Heilongjiang Province, there are all kinds of grain storage facilities, such as brick-concrete warehouse, covered shed warehouse, and "thousand-ton hoarding." more than 40,000 tons of grain has reached a new high in this granary.

The situation of Helen Grain Depot is not an isolated case. The vast majority of grain depots in Heilongjiang Province are full of grain. There is great pressure on grain stocks not only in Heilongjiang, but also in the whole northeast region.

Grain prices at home and abroad are seriously upside down in the "policy market".

The backlog of grain stocks is mainly due to weak demand. According to experts, affected by the bad economic situation, the feed industry is in serious malaise. Due to the upside-down prices of corn at home and abroad, starch, alcohol and other deep processing products have been in the doldrums for many years, grain and oil processing enterprises are facing unprecedented difficulties, grain processing enterprises in the main producing areas are underemployed, losses are intensified, and there is a growing trend.

A survey conducted by the Heilongjiang Grain Bureau in March showed that new and old rice processing enterprises in the province lost 14 yuan per ton of raw materials, while corn deep processing enterprises lost about 170 yuan per ton of raw materials. As a result, 491 grain processing enterprises in Heilongjiang Province stopped production in 2014 and expanded to 822 from January to March this year.

According to relevant experts, this phenomenon of industrial losses of grain processing enterprises is common in many major grain producing areas. The import and smuggling of rice have had a serious impact on the domestic rice processing industry, and the price of some rice imported to Hong Kong is similar to the minimum purchase price of rice in Heilongjiang Province. The price of smuggled rice is even lower, only about 1.2 yuan per catty, much lower than the minimum purchase price of 1.5 yuan per catty.

The corn deep processing industry is also faced with the scissors difference between imported corn and local corn, and the cost of enterprises is seriously upside down. According to a person in charge of the regulation and control department of the Heilongjiang Grain Bureau, the southern CIF price of imported corn is only about 1600 yuan per ton, which is far lower than the purchase price of 2200 yuan per ton of temporary storage corn in Heilongjiang last year.

The high price of domestic corn and the import of a large number of substitutes of foreign corn and its deep processing downstream products have directly led to the decline of corn digestion and inventory deposition in many areas of our country, and the pressure of collection and storage in the main grain producing areas is becoming more and more serious.

Due to the poor market-oriented sales, a large amount of grain in Heilongjiang Province has entered the national storage with the help of the temporary storage policy. Since the new grain was put on the market last year, there has been an obvious "policy market" in the grain purchase and sale market under the influence of domestic grain supply exceeding demand, international and domestic grain prices seriously upside down, and other factors.

Distorted relationship between supply and demand in grain market

In order to support the development of grain processing enterprises in the province and speed up inventory digestion, in April this year, the Heilongjiang provincial government issued a subsidy policy for enterprises in the province to bid for national policy grain. Initially, enterprises that meet the corresponding requirements bid for a subsidy of 200 yuan for a ton of corn and 100 yuan for a ton of rice. As the prices of corn products such as starch continue to fall, the loss of grain processing enterprises is further increased, and the original amount of subsidies can not mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises to bid. Heilongjiang raised the subsidy again in July, increasing the subsidy to 400 yuan per ton for corn and 200 yuan per ton for rice.

At present, the effect of subsidy policy has been shown. Statistics show that from January to March this year, 665 rice processing enterprises started production in the province, of which 2.86 million tons were processed. From January to July, the number of rice processing enterprises has increased to 883, and the processing capacity has increased to 6.57 million tons.

However, it does not play an important role in alleviating the pressure of policy-oriented grain inventory in Heilongjiang Province. Statistics show that from April 8 to mid-July, only 38 of the province's 102 subsidized rice processing enterprises participated, with a total auction of only 490000 tons. The transaction price is between 1.55 and 1.59 yuan per jin, and there is no premium.

After the high subsidy, the auction turnover rate of processing enterprises is still very low. One of the important reasons is that the bidding price of policy grain can not be connected with the market. At present, policy-oriented grain auction implements the "no loss" policy of selling at a reasonable price, with bidding price = purchase price + storage fee 2.5 cents per jin. "but the price is much higher than the market price." Zhang Jianjun, director of the directly affiliated warehouse of Qiqihar, said: there are 1 million tons of soybeans stored in the warehouse for four years, and at the time of purchase, the market price is only 2.05 yuan per jin, and no one wants it at all.