Warehouse capacity shortage, high inventory, domestic grain purchase and sale has entered the "new normal"

After a period of confusion, entanglement and adaptation, in today's China, the judgment of "new economic normal" has become a consensus. Under the cover of the general environment, domestic grain supply and demand has gradually entered a new cycle, market contradictions have gradually emerged, grain purchase and sales have also shown a "new normal", and the fixed pattern of market thinking has been constantly broken.

"simultaneous increase of three quantities" has become a "new normal"

Although China has achieved "12 consecutive increases" of summer grain and "11 consecutive abundant" of grain throughout the year, at the same time, there has also been a situation of simultaneous increase in import quantity and inventory volume.

The phenomenon of "simultaneous increase of three quantities" is indeed a new situation in recent years, but it is also inevitable. As a result of policy support, farmers' enthusiasm for planting has increased, and grain production has increased year after year; due to policy support, domestic grain prices have risen year after year, domestic and foreign prices have been upside down, and import pressure has increased; due to policy support, policy-based collection and storage efforts have been strengthened. huge inventory arises at the historic moment.

Is it a "disaster" caused by the policy?

In this regard, Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market Senior analyst Shen Hongyuan said, "the original intention of the policy is good." Although the situation of 'simultaneous increase in three quantities' will continue to have a negative impact on China's grain market, such as downward grain prices, great financial pressure, increased market dependence, and so on, the root of the problem lies in the difficulty of terminal consumption to support the current supply situation. "

"We can take a positive and correct view of the 'simultaneous increase of three quantities'," Shen Hongyuan said. "in the context of phased loose supply, 'simultaneous increase of three quantities' can give China's grain market and agricultural development more time to adjust and opportunities for improvement. For example, we can appropriately reduce the requirements for output, and adjust China's agricultural planting structure, appropriately carry out fallow, and give appropriate subsidies to farmers in the period of high ratio of storage to sales; or use the period of "simultaneous increase of three quantities" to adjust the domestic extensive mode of production, and ease the pressure on domestic water resources, environmental resources, production and planting by increasing imports and expanding reserves. We can also make proper use of the price or quality advantages of imported grain varieties to stimulate the promotion and cultivation of high-quality varieties in China. "

The tight warehouse capacity makes it more difficult to purchase new grain.

Over the years, the grain collection and storage policy has stabilized farmers' income and is an important driving force for domestic grain production to increase year after year, but the related problems have also emerged in some areas: continuous policy collection and storage has made a large number of grain sources enter the national stockpile. National policy grain auction sales are not smooth, accumulated for many years, resulting in tight storage capacity in some areas and increasing difficulties in purchasing new grain.

Take corn as an example, it is estimated that the surplus of corn stored in China is about 150 million tons, and because the growing areas such as soybeans, cotton and miscellaneous grains continue to transfer to corn, the China Grain Network predicts that China's corn output in the new season in 2015 is expected to reach 219.7 million tons, setting another record high.

Since 2008, the state has implemented the temporary corn reserve policy in Northeast China. In the context of the financial crisis, this policy plays a very important role in protecting farmers' enthusiasm for planting and maintaining national food security. Of course, it is precisely because of this policy that there is a serious shortage of grain storage capacity in Northeast China. According to Song Haihe, director of the purchase and marketing planning department of China Grain Storage Jilin Branch, at present, all kinds of grain in the branch area are seriously overloaded, and corn is the most serious. at present, the warehouse is full, cannot be sold, cannot be adjusted, and cannot be stored, and deep processing is seriously understarted. Feed grain consumption has been greatly reduced and low-cost substitutes have increased. "at present, branches and local state-owned grain enterprises have no spare warehouse capacity, coupled with the limited personnel for leasing and purchasing treasury, and there are many hidden risks in entrusted purchase, a large number of backlogs of grain will be out of control and can not be managed well." Song Haihe said.

In Henan, a major grain-producing province, the purchase of wheat supported the market has been launched for many years in a row. While ensuring the smooth channels for farmers to sell grain and protect their income and enthusiasm for growing grain, the problem of tight storage capacity is also prominent. According to relevant personnel of China Grain Storage Henan Branch, up to now, the grain under the central authority in Henan area has exceeded 30 million tons, and the current warehouse capacity of enterprises directly under the jurisdiction has been fully utilized. If we start policy storage at a later stage, we will face the problem of insufficient storage capacity.

On October 8, the State Grain Administration issued a notice describing the current grain storage situation as two "unprecedented": "at present, China's grain stocks have reached a new high, and the amount of grain stored by all kinds of grain and oil storage enterprises is unprecedented. The amount of national policy grain stored in open-air and simple storage facilities is also unprecedented."

In this regard, Zhang Zhixian, deputy dean of Yida Research Institute, said, "as the leading role of policy grain is more obvious in recent years, in the current period of policy change, other main bodies will be more cautious, resulting in fewer out-of-policy acquisitions. Thus once again strengthen the market's dependence on policy acquisitions. At the same time, policy pricing can not well reflect the relationship between supply and demand, and the price signal is distorted, which also makes the structural imbalance of grain varieties prominent, so the inventory backlog of some varieties is more obvious. Zhang Zhixian suggested that "subsidies for grain farmers should be increased, and on the premise of ensuring farmers' income from growing grain, we should speed up the reform of the price formation mechanism, let prices reflect the real supply and demand, and guide the adjustment of the planting structure."