The reform of imported grain structure will turn to 1 jin for every 7 jin of grain in China.

On one side is the "full warehouse of domestic grain" under "Twelve Lianfeng", and on the other is another low-priced grain ration of more than 100 million tons. The upside-down of domestic and foreign prices highlights the backward situation of China's agricultural competitiveness and tightens the nerves of grain policy adjustment.

Statistics show that grain imports in the first 11 months of 2015 were 113 million tons, an increase of 27.3 percent over the same period last year. On the other hand, the country's total grain output in 2015 was 621 million tons, an increase of 2.4 percent over 2014.

"some policies have been put forward in the proposals of the 13th five-year Plan, such as the pilot project of crop rotation and fallow, the implementation of the strategy of 'storing grain in the land and storing grain in technology', which has actually sent a signal of appropriate adjustment of grain production in the near future to a certain extent." Chen Xiwen, deputy head of the Central Rural work leading Group and director of the office, pointed out in a recent article that efforts will be made to maintain the stability and improvement of production capacity.

"it is possible to reduce output, but not to reduce the area of arable land, and it should be up to farmers to choose whether or not to withdraw from grain cultivation." Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst at Iger, told the Daily Economic News that "if farmers grow less grain, they will plant less, but we should not promote grain reduction at the expense of farmers' interests."

Import impact of corn substitutes at home

According to the proportion of imported grain, at present, 1 jin of every 7 jin of grain in China comes from abroad. In addition to more than 70% of these imported grains are soybeans, they are mainly corn substitutes such as barley, sorghum, DDGS, and cassava, and ferocious imports have an impact on domestic corn sales.

"cheap imported substitutes have a direct impact on treasury sales." Ma Wenfeng told the Daily Economic News: "at present, the selling price of state-owned corn targeted enterprises is 1400 yuan per ton, totaling 0.7 yuan per jin, while at the beginning they all earned about 1 yuan, which is equivalent to a loss of at least 600 yuan per ton of corn in addition to a loss in storage fees."

The inside can not get out, the outside can not get in, and the high grain stocks aggravate the difficulty of grain harvest in China. How nervous is Cang Rong? The State Grain Administration has used two unprecedented descriptions: "at present, China's grain inventory has reached a new high, and the amount of grain stored by all kinds of grain and oil storage enterprises is unprecedented." the amount of national policy grain stored in open-air and simple storage facilities is also unprecedented. "

Chen Xiwen pointed out that the import of barley, sorghum, DDGS, and cassava to replace corn has affected the sales of domestic corn, resulting in a backlog of unsalable sales, which is a prominent problem facing China's grain market at present. Therefore, for the Chinese government and farmers, the question that needs to be considered is what measures should be taken to regulate domestic food prices to curb the arbitrary growth in imports of corn substitutes.

The structure of grain production will be reformed prudently

Under the pattern of "twelve consecutive increases" in grain production, although some people think that an appropriate reduction in grain production can be considered, "People's Daily" published an article yesterday saying that it is very urgent to adjust grain production structure, grain production should adapt to the new normal, and grain reform should be transformed from the demand side to the supply side. In the case of relatively loose grain supply side, when adjusting the planting structure, it is necessary to transition to a balanced state of grain supply and demand, which should not be excessively reduced, but also grasp the intensity and rhythm, and tap the new potential of grain production. The key point is to promote grain production to shift from quantitative growth to equal emphasis on quantity, quality and efficiency, and from relying on resources and material input to relying on scientific and technological progress and improving the quality of workers.

As a result of experiencing the "huge fluctuations" caused by the previous two declines in grain production, grain reduction is an extremely serious topic.

The first big grain fluctuation occurred in the 1980s, when grain production fell for four consecutive years, and it was not until 1989 that grain production returned to the level of five years ago. For the second time, grain production has declined since 1999, falling to 430 million tons in 2003. Then, under a series of policy incentives, food production began to pick up in 2004 and did not exceed that of 1998 until 2008.

"Grain production has been going downhill and uphill for a total of ten years." Chen Xiwen pointed out: "judging from historical experience, the Chinese government should be particularly cautious in adjusting its grain policy. The grain price formation mechanism, the subsidy policy for farmers, and the reform of grain collection and storage policy should fully consider the interests of farmers and avoid another substantial decline in grain production."

Now, the third grain adjustment and reduction reform has emerged. "in fact, the consideration of grain production capacity has been going on for a long time, and it was discussed last year when we discussed document No. 1 of 2015," a person from the Ministry of Agriculture told the Daily Economic News. "the acreage can be reduced. but production capacity still needs to be guaranteed through technological upgrading and soil restoration.

As Chen Xiwen said, some policies have been put forward in the proposals of the 13th five-year Plan, such as the pilot project of crop rotation and fallow, the strategy of "storing grain in the land and technology", and so on. this has actually sent a signal to appropriately adjust grain production in the near future to a certain extent.