The downward adjustment of grain prices has an impact on the new main operators in rural areas.

We should pay close attention to the chain reaction caused by the reduction of grain prices, and beware that it is difficult to sell grain on a large scale and systematically, so as to deal a blow to the growing new business main body in rural areas.

From the start of the purchase of summer grain to the centralized listing of autumn grain, a reporter from "look out" Newsweek continued to follow up along Henan, Hubei and other major producing provinces and found that due to successive bumper harvests and market prices continued to rise unilaterally, there are many new trends in the current grain flow and storage links: high local inventory, great pressure on policy acquisitions, weak market purchase and sales, and the traditional peak season turns to off-season. The weakening trend of the market has spread from a single variety to multiple varieties. In some places, after queuing up to sell grain "normalized", some purchase points even appeared the phenomenon of "going through the back door" in order to sell grain.

Industry insiders and experts appeal that as grain policy collection and storage enters the adjustment window, all localities should pay close attention to the chain reaction caused by price reduction, and beware of the difficulty of changing from local grain sales to large-scale and systematic grain sales. It is necessary to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, prevent the decline in income from growing grain, slow down the process of agricultural scale, and even lead to a decline in grain production.

Give 500 yuan to sell grain for a good fee.

In the courtyard directly under the Central Grain Storage in Huangchuan, Henan Province, all kinds of grain selling vehicles spread forward in a line. Not far away, people who had finished weighing were busy unloading grain. Along the rotating conveyor belt, golden rice slowly flowed into the warehouse.

In front of an agricultural tricycle in the queue, Guo Ruimin, a farmer from Yuanbei Town, Huangchuan County, told Newsweek that for the first time after the middle and late rice harvest this year, "the whole family had 12 mu of land, with an average yield of nearly 1,000 jin per mu, and the purchase price for grain traders was 1.18 yuan. It can be sold here for more than 1.3 yuan."

Unlike Guo Ruimin's concern about grain prices, Zhang Ming, deputy director of Huangchuan's warehouse, is more concerned about the current situation of storage capacity. According to him, a total of 2.64 million tons of grain and oil are stored in Huangchuan directly affiliated depots and entrusted depots under their jurisdiction, although they are located in the rice area without participation in the purchase of summer grain, but after stocktaking, the empty warehouse is only more than 400,000 tons. "since the purchase of autumn grain support market was launched on October 1, more than 100,000 tons of rice have been purchased. According to the purchase volume of supporting the market in previous years, it is estimated that the shortage of warehouse capacity may be 500000 tons."

A reporter from Newsweek Newsweek saw that although the warehouse was small and old, the warehouse capacity of 15000 tons was full. On the gate of each warehouse, there is a "grain rights bulletin board" uniformly produced by the China Grain Storage Corporation. In neighboring Guangshan County, Guo Caiyuan, director of the Grain Bureau, also admitted that the total output of rice in the county is more than 600,000 tons, but the state-owned grain system has only more than 6000 tons, and the storage capacity purchased by the autumn grain market is very tight.

Statistics show that Henan has had another bumper harvest of summer grain this year, achieving 13 consecutive increases, and the total output has exceeded 70 billion jin for the first time. With regard to autumn grain, through the sample analysis of 81 survey households in nine counties, the relevant departments also show that the per unit yield of corn, soybeans, medium indica rice and other crops in the province have increased significantly, and their quality has improved somewhat. On the one hand, there is an increase in yield, and on the other hand, the warehouse capacity is tight. as a result, queuing to sell grain has entered "normalization" under double squeeze.

In Hunan Province, one of the main rice producing areas, some farmers have to sell grain over long distances after some storage sites are full. Zhou Jinhong, chairman of Jinshan Grain and Oil Company, located in Kaihui Town, Changsha County, Hunan Province, said that because the surrounding depots are full, the radius of the company's grain collection has been expanded to 50 kilometers, and the farthest food and agriculture even comes from Youxian County, 200 kilometers away.

Our reporter noticed that with the increasing pressure of queuing up to sell grain, there was even a phenomenon of "jumping in line to sell grain through the back door" in some warehouse sites with little warehouse capacity. Zhang Zhenhai, a grain broker from Fudian Town, Huangchuan County, said that within a radius of 30 kilometers this year, a commissioned grain storage site in Baidian Town was still opening and collecting grain. There were hundreds of cars in line, but they could not unload 10 cars a day.

"I've pulled more than 50,000 jin of grain. I've been waiting for a week and haven't sold it yet. Others waited longer, waiting for more than 10 days. But there are also people who can unload the goods when they come. As soon as they ask about what they are selling, they have to pay the inspectors a good fee of about NT $500 each time. They can check the quality without waiting in line, and directly weigh themselves into the warehouse after inspection. "

The maximum drop in income from growing grain is more than 30%.

In addition to the obvious difficulties in selling grain caused by tight storage capacity, a reporter from Newsweek found that under the strong guidance of the policy market, the current grain circulation and purchasing and marketing links also show complex characteristics of hidden difficulties in selling. Among them, three major trends are worthy of attention: the acquisition process of supporting the market is obviously lengthened; the main body of the market is weak in purchasing and selling, and the traditional peak season is not prosperous; the market weakening momentum spreads from a single variety to multiple varieties, and so on.

According to data from the Henan Provincial Grain Bureau, as of Sept. 30, the purchase of wheat in the province has been closed. The province has purchased a total of 40.1 billion jin of wheat, including 17.9 billion jin at the lowest purchase price and 22.2 billion jin at the market price. Based on the total output of 70 billion jin of summer grain, the current stock of wheat held by farmers is still as high as nearly 30 billion jin.

Li Ming, director of the purchase and sales Planning Department of China stored Grain Henan Branch, told reporters that in addition to the decline in purchase volume compared with the same period last year, the obvious lengthening of the acquisition process of supporting the market is the biggest feature of this year. "according to the experience of previous years, the collection and purchase of summer grain in the market was launched at the end of May, and the purchase volume generally decreased significantly after the beginning of July, basically coming to an end. However, the average daily purchase volume reached 20,000 tons in the year to September, compared with almost no progress in the same period last year. The main reason is that the market does not have enough power to buy and sell, and most of the food sources enter the scope of supporting the market. "

Due to the continuous unilateral rise in raw grain prices caused by the purchase of supporting the market, and the overall depression of the grain processing industry, most enterprises adopt the method of purchasing while processing in order to reduce costs, and even the traditional rule of "gold, nine and silver ten" in the peak season of purchase and sale has been broken.

Deng Shenglong, general manager of the Yinxin Rice Company of Fuwa Group in Jianli County, Hubei Province, said that the county's rice output is 130000 tons, and its own enterprises process 40, 000 tons, deducting the purchase of 10, 000 tons by supporting the market, and the rest can usually be digested by a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, under the weak pattern of Gu Qiang rice, many small enterprises are underemployed, and their purchases and sales are obviously light.

Zhang Zhixian, deputy director of the Yida Research Institute of the China Grain Network, pointed out that generally speaking, with the beginning of the new semester in colleges and universities and the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the operating rate of flour enterprises continues to increase, and the wheat market will form a peak buying and selling season of "gold, silver and silver." However, due to the current adequate market supply, and everyone is generally bearish about the future, the phased rise in previous years did not appear.

From the perspective of varieties, among the three staple grains, the trend of market weakness from a single variety to other varieties is also prominent. In Jianli County, the purchase price of medium rice, which opened in mid-early August, fell all the way from 1.42 yuan to 1.35 yuan. Dong Huaiyong, director of the County Grain Bureau, said that if it is not started to support the market, it is likely to be difficult to sell grain. Ding Zhaoshi, deputy director of the Shandong Grain Bureau, said that at the beginning of the listing of local new wheat, the price was lower than that of last year, and it has been in a weak operation. After the local launch of supporting the market, the market only fluctuated slightly around the supporting price.

Shen Hongyuan, an analyst at Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market, believes that from the phased surplus of corn in Northeast China in recent years to the light purchase and sale of rice and wheat, the spread of the market downturn among several major grain varieties is worthy of attention.

The depressed market has had a negative impact on the income of growing grain. A few days ago, the price cost investigation and supervision bureau of Henan Province conducted a survey on the input and output of autumn grain, and the results show that although the output has increased, the planting income of autumn grain generally shows a downward trend.

Corn has dropped from 1.12 yuan / jin in July and August 2015 to the current 0.71-0.81 yuan / jin, with a maximum drop of 36.61%. Soybeans have also dropped from 2.41 yuan / jin to 1.92 yuan / jin, with an average decrease of 20.33%. Medium indica rice dropped from 1.35 yuan / jin last year to 1.18 yuan / jin now, a decrease of 12.59%. On the other hand, the three production costs increased by 3.31%, 2.75% and 2.19% respectively compared with the same period last year. Under the double squeeze of rising costs and falling prices, planting income inevitably decreases. Take corn, which has the biggest decline, as an example, the average cash income per mu in 2015 was 484.35 yuan, a decrease of 230.09 yuan or more than 30% compared with 714.44 yuan last year.

The new type of operator is impacted by the difficulty of selling grain.

In view of the continued weakening of the market situation, the major grain producing areas while implementing the planned acquisition plan to support the market, while taking various measures to increase warehouse capacity by tapping potential. In addition, local governments also take the initiative to carry out production and marketing docking activities.

Tang Xuejun, director of the Regulation and Control Department of the Hubei Provincial Grain Bureau, pointed out that with high inventories and serious upside-down grain prices at home and abroad, the grain policy collection and storage system that has been implemented for many years is facing an adjustment window. Striving to achieve "price-compensation separation" and allowing grain prices to return to the market is the general direction of the future, but under the circumstances that it is difficult to put the reform in place in the short term, all localities should especially guard against the possible difficulties in selling grain on a large scale and its chain reaction.

"up to now, the circulation area of contracted cultivated land in rural areas across the country has reached 380 million mu, accounting for 28.8 percent of the total contracted cultivated land, and new business entities such as large grain growers and family farms are still in the stage of development." Tang Xuejun said, "it is this group that bears the brunt of a bumper grain harvest. The setback of their enthusiasm is bound to transmit the negative impact to the ongoing process of land transfer and the scale of agricultural production, and may even lead to a decline in grain production. "

In fact, the continuous follow-up interview of the reporter of "look out" Newsweek in many places in Henan has found that the difficulty in selling grain in the new period is being transmitted through the food chain, capital chain, and land chain, quietly triggering a systematic "chemical reaction": after buying a large amount of grain, it is slow to sell, and some grain brokers are forced to pay debts; large grain growers struggle to maintain, borrow or have no money to invest in reproduction; agricultural dealers sell on credit seriously, and it is difficult to operate.

Xing Changyin, vice chairman of the Native Gold planting Cooperative in Tanghe County, Henan Province, said that since the establishment of the cooperative, more than 800 mu of subcontracted land and 2000 mu of trusteeship land have been subcontracted, and the total output of wheat this year is 720000 jin. Because of the poor quality and low selling price, it was originally expected to fight a turnaround when the autumn grain came down. Who knows, after more than 600,000 jin of corn was harvested and put on the market, the price was as low as 70 to 80 cents per jin.

"Last season, the crops owed more than 800,000 yuan for fertilizer, and it was not easy to pay back the wheat after selling it. After the autumn harvest, it was difficult to sell corn, so this time the wheat had to borrow more than 300,000 yuan. When the co-operative was established, it was named 'native money' for good fortune, but now it has become a 'native trouble'. " Xing Changyin said.

Tang Daoli, a large grain grower in Sheqi County, Henan Province, calculated an account: this year, the yields of wheat and corn per mu are 1000 jin and 1200 jin respectively, and the average price of local wheat is 0.95 yuan per jin. At present, the price of corn is only 0.72 yuan per jin, resulting in an annual income of 1814 yuan per mu of land, deducting 850 yuan from contract fees, and 1050 yuan in agricultural materials, irrigating land, and labor investment in two seasons, with a loss of 86 yuan.

"since 2008, I have contracted more than 2800 mu of land with snowballs, and the scale has been reduced to less than 2000 mu this autumn. If the market, land rent and input costs remain unchanged next year, I estimate that the scale of less than 1000 mu will be considered safe. " Tang Daoli said, "now the big grain growers are in dire straits, and the land has become a hot potato, and people have thrown out the subcontracted land."

Yang Jun, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told this reporter that systematic studies on domestic grain production since the reform and opening up show that the factors affecting the fluctuation of output mainly include natural disasters, economic growth, agricultural financial expenditure and grain income, among which the latter has the most direct impact on the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, and is also the decisive factor related to grain output.

"judging from the fluctuation of grain in China from 1978 to 2013, whenever the planting profit margin is high, grain production is increased; if the grain profit margin is too low, it is easy to lead to a sustained reduction in production. It is suggested that the change of the rate of return of grain production should be monitored while supporting the market policy reform, so as to ensure that the profit margin of farmers growing grain is at a reasonable level and stabilize grain production. "