The reason for the coexistence of "three more" in China's Grain with a large population and little Land

According to recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the country's total summer grain output in 2015 was 141.066 million tons, an increase of 3.3 percent over 2014. At this point, China's summer grain has realized the "twelve consecutive abundant".

While the total amount of grain continues to rise, China's grain imports are also growing rapidly. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 16.29 million tons of cereals and cereal flour, including wheat, corn and barley, in the first half of this year, an increase of more than 60 percent over the same period last year.

It is worth noting that with the "double increase" of grain output and imports, the total amount of grain stocks in China has also reached an all-time high in recent years.

The reporter learned from the State Grain Administration that over the past 10 years, domestic grain production has grown at an average annual rate of less than 3%, but inventory growth has exceeded 8%. Some major grain producing areas are facing tremendous pressure of collection and storage, and there is a periodic surplus of some varieties.

According to a notice posted on the website of the State Grain Administration a few days ago to do a good job in purchasing autumn grain in 2015 and safe grain storage in autumn, China's grain inventory has reached a new high, and the amount of grain stored by all kinds of grain and oil storage enterprises is unprecedented. The amount of national policy grain stored in open-air and simple storage facilities is also unprecedented. The contradiction of insufficient warehouse capacity in major grain producing areas is prominent.

Chen Xiwen, deputy head of the Central Rural work leading Group and director of the Office, believes that the gap between China's total grain output and total demand is less than 50 billion jin, but there is a situation of importing more than 100 million tons, and the excessive gap in grain prices between China and foreign countries is the main reason.

It is also a way to reduce imports, improve production efficiency and enhance the competitiveness of agriculture. However, this is difficult to achieve. According to the research of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the scale of agricultural management with no less than 170 mu of cash crops and no less than 300 mu of food crops will have international competitiveness. At present, China's land fragmentation management is serious, the land transfer is only 380 million mu, accounting for 28.8% of the total cultivated land area, most of the cultivated land is still in the hands of individuals, before the comprehensive transfer is completed and large-scale operation is formed, it is very difficult for domestic agriculture to have international competitiveness.

Even for large-scale agriculture, the outlook is not optimistic. Huang Ji, director of the Agricultural Policy Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has said that real wages of Chinese labor force have increased at an average annual rate of about 8 per cent since 2008, with cultivated land rents rising by 51 per cent and 70 per cent respectively in the northeast and north China between 2005 and 2013. It is believed that this upward trend will be more obvious in the next decade. He further pointed out that the change in the cost of material (tradable goods) is global, but the change in the cost of labor and land (non-tradable goods) is within the country and is a significant factor affecting the competitiveness of agricultural products in the international market, and believes that in some areas, the loss of China's agricultural comparative advantage is not phased.

In view of this problem, People's Daily also published a rare article pointing out that the "simultaneous increase of three quantities" reflects that China's agricultural competitiveness is not strong, and the article says that "the phenomenon of simultaneous increase of three quantities is a new situation under the new normal." Such a situation has its inevitability. Some domestic varieties do need to be imported, but the fundamental reason is that international competition is becoming more and more fierce and China's agricultural competitiveness is not strong. " The person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture said.

Cheng Guoqiang, secretary general of the academic Committee of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the increase in grain production in China in recent years is mainly due to the increase in corn, according to the "half-monthly talk" report. "in the past 10 years, corn production has increased at an average annual rate of 5.2%. Over the past 10 years, corn production has increased by 65%. Ten years ago, China produced 130 million tons of corn a year, but now it is 215 million tons. Ten years ago, the yield of corn was not as much as that of rice, but now it has surpassed rice to become the largest food crop in China. "

Correspondingly, the sown area of corn in China has increased year by year, with a cumulative increase of 45% in the past 10 years. In the same period, the sown area of wheat increased by 12%, rice increased by 7%, and the sown area of other miscellaneous grain crops, such as mixed beans, buckwheat and other small varieties needed by the domestic market, decreased by 25%. In addition, the area of soybeans decreased significantly, and most of the land vacated was planted corn.

The sharp increase in corn area and yield is the result of continuous policy price increases. "now, if we pull northeast corn to the Guangzhou port, compared with foreign corn to Guangzhou port, the price difference is 700 to 800 yuan per ton. without the management of tariff quotas, foreign corn will instantly flood the domestic market." Cheng Guoqiang said.

It is understood that China implements quota management on the import of staple grains such as corn, wheat and rice, but there are no import restrictions on many other small grain varieties. Because of this, in the case of abnormally high domestic corn prices, the import of international alternative grain has increased rapidly. For example, last year, imports of sorghum and feed barley both exceeded 5 million tons, with the former tripling and the latter doubling.

At the same time, China's corn inventory is more than 100 million tons, which is equivalent to the output of the previous year. Cheng Guoqiang said: we do not need to produce all grain on our own. First, we cannot bear the burden of resources and environment. Second, from the perspective of food security, it is not necessary.